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With Detroit's back nearly back against the wall, if ever I was to bet on Detroit, this would be the one. But I can't do it, after long and hard considerations.
My original leans toward Detroit are as follow;
Detroit
is finally at home. The refs' calls should most definitely benefit them more. Fouls calls usually even out, and in San Antonio, the Spurs got more of the benefit of the calls, so it's Detroit's turn this time, one would think.
Ginobili, or any other Spurs players attempting to drive and slashes to the basket will be much contested and more charges should be called on them. Not only that, but you got to think the Spur's bench players will be less effective, with the crowd noise, and all being disruptive. With this game being essentially the serie, unless they pull a Boston Red Sox move, their back is against the wall.
The hustle, efforts, and energy will be there for Detroit. It really is do or die. It is just near impossible to win 4 in a row against Spurs, should they lose here.
All the above make it a strong consideration for play on Detroit, but I can't do it. Here's why;
Tayshaun Prince has had a stellar year, averaging 16 pts in the regular season, but in the playoffs, he has been very timid after playing against Wade. Most people thought he would limit Wade, but it didn't happen. So now people are saying the same when he lines up against Ginobili. Didn't work either. Tay is playing very timid and seems to have lost a lot of confidence. That reflects on his offensive game as he's not as aggressive as he normally was in the season. His numbers are just down, compared to what he did in the regular season. There's no sign of changes yet.
Chauncey Billups has been one of their best player. He's a hell of a guard, second team NBA all defense and all. But he too has trouble against Parker's speed, just like he did with Allen Iverson, explaining why Tay was on AI for the most part. Chauncey alone can't carry this team. Lindsay Hunter would do better defensively against Parker, but I'm not seeing that from Coach Brown. This is where they really miss Mike James from last year's squad. James an excellent defender and would match up very well against Parker.
Rip Hamilton has been Detroit's most consistent scorer, but history proves that he struggles big time against Bruce Bown. As great as Rip is, he is no better than Ray Allen, but probably in the class with the likes of that thug MELO in Denver and Shawn Marion. Bowen is a proven defender and since Rip hasn't done it against Bowen before, now isn't the time to he will. Rip needs to be extremely aggressive and go hard to the basket. He wasn't given much calls in San Antonion, now's his chance, if he seizes it.
Rasheed Wallace has been near absent in the first two games. When he didn't post on Brent Barry in the box, then when will he? I mean with all his skills, I don't see why he doesn't play with his back to the basket, instead, he's taking on the Chris Webber approach of hanging out on the perimeter. It's playing into Spur's advantage. Duncan's a hell of a defender, but you've got to attack the basket and get foul calls on the defender, hoisting threes and jumpers aren't going to cut it on most nights. Let McDyess do this, his mid range jumpers are much more effective.
Ben Wallace needs to play with more aggression. He is the heart and soul of Detroit. When he plays well like rebounding, swatting shots, it ignites the Pistons overall. But he's been held in check by Nazr Muhammad. He's lost his cool and poise when his team needs him most.
It just appears to me, this Detroit team is just not as hungry as last year's team. Last year, when they had you down, the had that killer instinct and swarmed all over the ball. In the Philly series, they were very close to having that series extend, but Philly choked Game 3 away and lost in OT. Then against a malign Jermain O'Neal and Indy team, they fell behind in the series at one point. They've had to come back to win. They proven they're very beatable at the Palace. Same situation against Miami. So can they do it against San Antonio? I don't think 3rd times a charm here. Thinking their luck runs out here. Spurs are just so much better fundamentally than the Piston's previous two opponents.
Summary:
Detroit's inept offense against Spurs' tenacious team zone defense.
Advantage Spurs. Add to it the fact that Detroit goes through long spells without baskets. They slow down the game and play too much one on one, not distributing the ball around like the Spurs do. This brand of offense plays into the Spurs' zone defense. Offensive shooting percentages may go up and down on nights, but defense is a constant with the Spurs. They are a very poise defensive-minded team, and POP will let them know when they slip ever now and then.Detroit needs to run more and get more fast break points. Their slow down offense may work against other teams, but not this Spurs team. Until they prove they can score in the mid 80s + against this Spurs team, I can't take them. They've averaged 72pts in the 1st two games.
Spurs offense against Pistons' defense.
Advantage Spurs.Once vaunted, now I think there's a crack in the armor. They're not holding teams to the 70's unlike last year. Defensively, the Pistons rely on too much man to man. They've not had much success against Duncan in the post, despite Rasheed's defensive prowess. Ginobili has just proven that he can go around just about any defender Detroit throws at him. Even when they collapse on him, his kickouts are solid. Although I don't see the likes of Horry and Bowen hitting threes consistently, in a close game, a basket or two can make all the difference. Even Barry hasn't shot well, imagine if he's due. The guard duo of the Joneses of Miami had good success against Detroit's defense and Parker and Ginobili are much better than them. Wade attacked the Detroit defense and was very successful, now Ginobili's doing the same. Spurs offensively are more fundamentally sound. Only thing that worries me is their FT percentage as it's shaky. Otherwise they distribute the ball better. If they're isn't much of a discrepancy among the rebounding edge and turnovers, Spurs should win or at least cover ATS. Add to that Lady Luck and Robert Horry seem to go hand in hand as well. Until they can stop Ginobili and make him look human, can't take the Pistons esp. laying points with their inept offense.
I LIKE SPURS + 4
Spurs 87
Pistons 82
My original leans toward Detroit are as follow;
Detroit
is finally at home. The refs' calls should most definitely benefit them more. Fouls calls usually even out, and in San Antonio, the Spurs got more of the benefit of the calls, so it's Detroit's turn this time, one would think.
Ginobili, or any other Spurs players attempting to drive and slashes to the basket will be much contested and more charges should be called on them. Not only that, but you got to think the Spur's bench players will be less effective, with the crowd noise, and all being disruptive. With this game being essentially the serie, unless they pull a Boston Red Sox move, their back is against the wall.
The hustle, efforts, and energy will be there for Detroit. It really is do or die. It is just near impossible to win 4 in a row against Spurs, should they lose here.
All the above make it a strong consideration for play on Detroit, but I can't do it. Here's why;
Tayshaun Prince has had a stellar year, averaging 16 pts in the regular season, but in the playoffs, he has been very timid after playing against Wade. Most people thought he would limit Wade, but it didn't happen. So now people are saying the same when he lines up against Ginobili. Didn't work either. Tay is playing very timid and seems to have lost a lot of confidence. That reflects on his offensive game as he's not as aggressive as he normally was in the season. His numbers are just down, compared to what he did in the regular season. There's no sign of changes yet.
Chauncey Billups has been one of their best player. He's a hell of a guard, second team NBA all defense and all. But he too has trouble against Parker's speed, just like he did with Allen Iverson, explaining why Tay was on AI for the most part. Chauncey alone can't carry this team. Lindsay Hunter would do better defensively against Parker, but I'm not seeing that from Coach Brown. This is where they really miss Mike James from last year's squad. James an excellent defender and would match up very well against Parker.
Rip Hamilton has been Detroit's most consistent scorer, but history proves that he struggles big time against Bruce Bown. As great as Rip is, he is no better than Ray Allen, but probably in the class with the likes of that thug MELO in Denver and Shawn Marion. Bowen is a proven defender and since Rip hasn't done it against Bowen before, now isn't the time to he will. Rip needs to be extremely aggressive and go hard to the basket. He wasn't given much calls in San Antonion, now's his chance, if he seizes it.
Rasheed Wallace has been near absent in the first two games. When he didn't post on Brent Barry in the box, then when will he? I mean with all his skills, I don't see why he doesn't play with his back to the basket, instead, he's taking on the Chris Webber approach of hanging out on the perimeter. It's playing into Spur's advantage. Duncan's a hell of a defender, but you've got to attack the basket and get foul calls on the defender, hoisting threes and jumpers aren't going to cut it on most nights. Let McDyess do this, his mid range jumpers are much more effective.
Ben Wallace needs to play with more aggression. He is the heart and soul of Detroit. When he plays well like rebounding, swatting shots, it ignites the Pistons overall. But he's been held in check by Nazr Muhammad. He's lost his cool and poise when his team needs him most.
It just appears to me, this Detroit team is just not as hungry as last year's team. Last year, when they had you down, the had that killer instinct and swarmed all over the ball. In the Philly series, they were very close to having that series extend, but Philly choked Game 3 away and lost in OT. Then against a malign Jermain O'Neal and Indy team, they fell behind in the series at one point. They've had to come back to win. They proven they're very beatable at the Palace. Same situation against Miami. So can they do it against San Antonio? I don't think 3rd times a charm here. Thinking their luck runs out here. Spurs are just so much better fundamentally than the Piston's previous two opponents.
Summary:
Detroit's inept offense against Spurs' tenacious team zone defense.
Advantage Spurs. Add to it the fact that Detroit goes through long spells without baskets. They slow down the game and play too much one on one, not distributing the ball around like the Spurs do. This brand of offense plays into the Spurs' zone defense. Offensive shooting percentages may go up and down on nights, but defense is a constant with the Spurs. They are a very poise defensive-minded team, and POP will let them know when they slip ever now and then.Detroit needs to run more and get more fast break points. Their slow down offense may work against other teams, but not this Spurs team. Until they prove they can score in the mid 80s + against this Spurs team, I can't take them. They've averaged 72pts in the 1st two games.
Spurs offense against Pistons' defense.
Advantage Spurs.Once vaunted, now I think there's a crack in the armor. They're not holding teams to the 70's unlike last year. Defensively, the Pistons rely on too much man to man. They've not had much success against Duncan in the post, despite Rasheed's defensive prowess. Ginobili has just proven that he can go around just about any defender Detroit throws at him. Even when they collapse on him, his kickouts are solid. Although I don't see the likes of Horry and Bowen hitting threes consistently, in a close game, a basket or two can make all the difference. Even Barry hasn't shot well, imagine if he's due. The guard duo of the Joneses of Miami had good success against Detroit's defense and Parker and Ginobili are much better than them. Wade attacked the Detroit defense and was very successful, now Ginobili's doing the same. Spurs offensively are more fundamentally sound. Only thing that worries me is their FT percentage as it's shaky. Otherwise they distribute the ball better. If they're isn't much of a discrepancy among the rebounding edge and turnovers, Spurs should win or at least cover ATS. Add to that Lady Luck and Robert Horry seem to go hand in hand as well. Until they can stop Ginobili and make him look human, can't take the Pistons esp. laying points with their inept offense.
I LIKE SPURS + 4
Spurs 87
Pistons 82
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