Tweet
3-3 last post for a loss of $33
YTD (184-149) up $3,191
today:
Cubs -107
First reaction was to play Atlanta and Ramirez till I noticed a few things. First is despite losing Lee the Cubs still hit LHP fairly well and being the Cubs they have a slight advantage playing so many day games. When I noticed how poorly the Braves hit during Day games compounded by having to face a flamethrower like Mark Prior it will be that much harder this afternoon in theory at least. The last was how poorly Horacio Ramirez had pitched in his 4 Day starts lasting just 17.1 innings allowing 30 hits and 10bb's with 24 RUNS and just 3K's!Thats a 12.46 ERA and .385 BAA. So all that lead me to Chicago instead on Atlanta.
Nationals -112
Feel that the pitching matchup is pretty even with possible a slight advantage to Armas at home over Benson on the road. Bottomline is you have an exceptional home team at a PKem against a below average road team. Did the Mets beat Livan last nite or did they just find holes at the right time?
Over 8.5 -101 Milwaukee
Again further research lead me to flip fom the UNDER to the OVER here. After all 14 of 16 Santos starts have been Unders since he gets horrible run support and Moehler has 7 of 8 at home go under cause he suffers from the same woes. The home plate UMP seems to have a tight zone looking at the amount of walks in some of his games and all five of his last dish starts have seen double digit runs. Now the key is how both pitchers struggle during the day and how both teams lost there setup men in Wise and Mota.
Under 8 +109 Washington
Going to take a shot as my instincts tell me this is a SHARP play.
Phillies -138
For the most part Myers has been at his best in his 8 road starts sportin a 2.08 ERA but not getting much run support which makes me wonder how I missed the uNder @ 8.5 in this game yesterday! Anyway bottomline is Philly is 17-10 vs LHP and I overlooked yesterday thinking Redman could keep them in check but Pirates just are to inconsistent with the sticks. Duke is going to be a good one and look for Pitt to have the best SP in the Central next year if Perez returns healthy to go with Redman, Wells , Duke and Snell.
Astros +129 & -1.5 runs +225
Like I said yesterday with all the injuries that SD has they will struggle to hit LHP. The Stros are HOT going I think 21-9 last 30 games and Woody Williams has had his struggles at Houston in the past. Five of his last 6 starts have been at home so its tough to really weigh them here IMO. I know its a sweep game but IMO its worth the play value was just think how much SD has strugglked to score offf the Stros SP in this series.
Over 11 Arizona -101
Again justa gut read thinking this is a SHARP PLAY! Doent help that Vargas has been pretty bad and Marquis struggling.
Diamondbacks +167 & -1.5runs +275
This is Diamondbacks trying to avoid the 4 game Home sweep situation. The key is Vargas get some luck and run support winning his last 3 starts while Marquis just really struggling on the road in four of his last 5 times out. His last 5 starts have amassed 23innings allowing 36 hits 28runs{20earned} 17bbs and 7k's!! His best outing was ^ innings in Coors allowing 4 hits and 5 walks wwith 3 runs...thats 1.50 WHIP!!
Giants +101
Harang just isnt the same pitcher on the road at home and vice versa Tomko has been much better in 6 home starts then his road outings. Line doesnt make much sense to me since Cincy is awful on the road.
Orioles +102 & -1.5 runs +186 & over 10 -105
Wells has won his share of starts lately but has really been roughed up of late especially his last 3 starts and we know Boston is thin in the pen. With the return of Mora tothe lineup and possibleemergence of Sammy Sosa the O's could again be trouble to southpaws. Cabrera has struggled vs Boston in the past but has been pretty good at home sportting a 3.54 ERA.
Yankees -178
The Yankee bats are alive and well and Mussina has been solid at home despite just a 4-4 record he sports a 3 ERA. He is 6-1 career vs Cleveland compared to Millwodd 0-3 with an 8 ERA. Yanks ahve taken 9 of 13 and 6 of 7 at home vs Cleveland recently. The key is really keeping HAfner in the park as he is there main threat for them. Millwood has been excellent in a few road starts but pitching at the Stadium is a major test IMO.
A's -138 & Over 8 -105
Harden has been sharp since returning from the DL allowing just 1 run and had 2 excellent starts in three vs Toronto last year. The key for me is Chacin not pitching all that well at Skydome in 6 starts and Oaklnad being 17-9 vs LHP. They lost to Lilly last nite but he has been on a roll and is real toughat Skydome unlike Chacin. Also Oakland had him on the ropes a few times but he got the big outs. For the total being set low at 8 with Cooper behind the dish its worth a shot.
YTD (184-149) up $3,191
today:
Cubs -107
First reaction was to play Atlanta and Ramirez till I noticed a few things. First is despite losing Lee the Cubs still hit LHP fairly well and being the Cubs they have a slight advantage playing so many day games. When I noticed how poorly the Braves hit during Day games compounded by having to face a flamethrower like Mark Prior it will be that much harder this afternoon in theory at least. The last was how poorly Horacio Ramirez had pitched in his 4 Day starts lasting just 17.1 innings allowing 30 hits and 10bb's with 24 RUNS and just 3K's!Thats a 12.46 ERA and .385 BAA. So all that lead me to Chicago instead on Atlanta.
Nationals -112
Feel that the pitching matchup is pretty even with possible a slight advantage to Armas at home over Benson on the road. Bottomline is you have an exceptional home team at a PKem against a below average road team. Did the Mets beat Livan last nite or did they just find holes at the right time?
Over 8.5 -101 Milwaukee
Again further research lead me to flip fom the UNDER to the OVER here. After all 14 of 16 Santos starts have been Unders since he gets horrible run support and Moehler has 7 of 8 at home go under cause he suffers from the same woes. The home plate UMP seems to have a tight zone looking at the amount of walks in some of his games and all five of his last dish starts have seen double digit runs. Now the key is how both pitchers struggle during the day and how both teams lost there setup men in Wise and Mota.
Under 8 +109 Washington
Going to take a shot as my instincts tell me this is a SHARP play.
Phillies -138
For the most part Myers has been at his best in his 8 road starts sportin a 2.08 ERA but not getting much run support which makes me wonder how I missed the uNder @ 8.5 in this game yesterday! Anyway bottomline is Philly is 17-10 vs LHP and I overlooked yesterday thinking Redman could keep them in check but Pirates just are to inconsistent with the sticks. Duke is going to be a good one and look for Pitt to have the best SP in the Central next year if Perez returns healthy to go with Redman, Wells , Duke and Snell.
Astros +129 & -1.5 runs +225
Like I said yesterday with all the injuries that SD has they will struggle to hit LHP. The Stros are HOT going I think 21-9 last 30 games and Woody Williams has had his struggles at Houston in the past. Five of his last 6 starts have been at home so its tough to really weigh them here IMO. I know its a sweep game but IMO its worth the play value was just think how much SD has strugglked to score offf the Stros SP in this series.
Over 11 Arizona -101
Again justa gut read thinking this is a SHARP PLAY! Doent help that Vargas has been pretty bad and Marquis struggling.
Diamondbacks +167 & -1.5runs +275
This is Diamondbacks trying to avoid the 4 game Home sweep situation. The key is Vargas get some luck and run support winning his last 3 starts while Marquis just really struggling on the road in four of his last 5 times out. His last 5 starts have amassed 23innings allowing 36 hits 28runs{20earned} 17bbs and 7k's!! His best outing was ^ innings in Coors allowing 4 hits and 5 walks wwith 3 runs...thats 1.50 WHIP!!
Giants +101
Harang just isnt the same pitcher on the road at home and vice versa Tomko has been much better in 6 home starts then his road outings. Line doesnt make much sense to me since Cincy is awful on the road.
Orioles +102 & -1.5 runs +186 & over 10 -105
Wells has won his share of starts lately but has really been roughed up of late especially his last 3 starts and we know Boston is thin in the pen. With the return of Mora tothe lineup and possibleemergence of Sammy Sosa the O's could again be trouble to southpaws. Cabrera has struggled vs Boston in the past but has been pretty good at home sportting a 3.54 ERA.
Yankees -178
The Yankee bats are alive and well and Mussina has been solid at home despite just a 4-4 record he sports a 3 ERA. He is 6-1 career vs Cleveland compared to Millwodd 0-3 with an 8 ERA. Yanks ahve taken 9 of 13 and 6 of 7 at home vs Cleveland recently. The key is really keeping HAfner in the park as he is there main threat for them. Millwood has been excellent in a few road starts but pitching at the Stadium is a major test IMO.
A's -138 & Over 8 -105
Harden has been sharp since returning from the DL allowing just 1 run and had 2 excellent starts in three vs Toronto last year. The key for me is Chacin not pitching all that well at Skydome in 6 starts and Oaklnad being 17-9 vs LHP. They lost to Lilly last nite but he has been on a roll and is real toughat Skydome unlike Chacin. Also Oakland had him on the ropes a few times but he got the big outs. For the total being set low at 8 with Cooper behind the dish its worth a shot.