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8-5 YTD
1. SAINTS VS. GIANTS UNDER 44
Don’t look at last week’s Giants score and think that they are suddenly some offensive juggernaut because they are not. Manning is still struggling to grow in this league, throwing for only 172 yards and two interceptions on top of his two TD’s. The Giants had a punt and a kick-off returned for TD’s and a 71 yard interception return. There was also a 17 yard interception return that set up another score. Both the Saints and the Giants were out-yarded in their games but both won. I see both teams being fairly ineffective in both the ground and air attack tonight and this one could turn out to be a low scoring affair with the final score ending up in the mid 30’s.
Some Trend data:
• Saints 12-4 “under” last 16 games with a total of between 42.5 – 49 points;
• Saints 6-0 “under” last 6 after playing Carolina;
• Saints 10-4 “under” as a dog of 3.5 – 9.5 points;
• Giants 7-1 “under” in the 2nd of back to back home games… (I know it’s technically the Saints’ home game but it is being played at the Meadowlands after-all isnt’ it?)
• Giants 17-7 “under” off a home win of 10 or more points;
2. New Orleans +3.5 -105 NY Giants
3. New Orleans +169 ML NY GIANTS
I’m still not buying in to the Giants. I personally feel that they are a weak team. I also feel that the Saints are going to use Hurricane Katrina as an inspirational driving force for their season and if week 1 was any indication, they sure as hell convinced me that they can put their minds over matter. If the Saints were going to have a horrible game, last week was it but instead, they came out and proved a lot of people wrong.
I thin the Saints are much better on offense than the Giants. This fact will ultimately decide the outcome of this game. The Saints are road warriors, covering the spread in 12 of their last 17 road games. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. the NFC East and more importantly, 4-1 SU in those last 5 games vs. the NFC East. New Orleans is also 16-6 ATS on the road off a division win.
Now, not only have the Giants failed to cover the spread in their last 3 as favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points, but they are also 0-3 SU in their last 3 in that role. NY is also 9-16 SU in their last 25 vs. conference opponents and 0-2 SU in their last 2 Monday night appearances (2-11 SU in their last 13 Monday night appearances). They are also 0-5 SU in their last 5 vs. the NFC South and have won only 5 of their last 17 home games.
This is a good ML spot on the visiting Saints and I’m playing both the point spread and the moneyline here tonight.
4. WASHINGTON +7 at DALLAS
America’s team always seems to be good for a nice overlay, especially against a team with such poor public support as Washington. My own line makes this game Dallas -2.5 so I’m finding considerable value on the Redskins here.
For starters, don’t underestimate Washington’s defense. Dallas scored some points last week on what I consider to be a weaker defense than Washington’s and I do not think that Bledsoe will have as much comfort in this one tonight.
Remember, Washington ranked third in the NFL and first in the NFC in team defense last season. They also finished third against the rush and seventh against the pass in the NFL. Greg Williams is the defensive coordinator for the Redskins and he coached Bledsoe and knows how to disrupt him to make him uncomfortable. Bledsoe is an incredibly over-rated quarterback and he will come back down to his usual form tonight. He was sacked 4 times last week and should see a lot of blitzes tonight. Last week this defense limited Chicago to only 141 yards of net offense while Clinton Portis chewed up the Chicago defense for 121 rushing yards.
Here’s some trend data for you guys to much on…
The Redskins are 16-4 ATS as road Underdogs of between +4.0 to +7.5 in their last 20 games in this role; (5-1 ATS last 6)
Washington is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 as dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points;
Waiting to see if the Cowboys total drifts lower....I'd love to catch it at 35 or lower cause my numbers have this game finishing above the total.
1. SAINTS VS. GIANTS UNDER 44
Don’t look at last week’s Giants score and think that they are suddenly some offensive juggernaut because they are not. Manning is still struggling to grow in this league, throwing for only 172 yards and two interceptions on top of his two TD’s. The Giants had a punt and a kick-off returned for TD’s and a 71 yard interception return. There was also a 17 yard interception return that set up another score. Both the Saints and the Giants were out-yarded in their games but both won. I see both teams being fairly ineffective in both the ground and air attack tonight and this one could turn out to be a low scoring affair with the final score ending up in the mid 30’s.
Some Trend data:
• Saints 12-4 “under” last 16 games with a total of between 42.5 – 49 points;
• Saints 6-0 “under” last 6 after playing Carolina;
• Saints 10-4 “under” as a dog of 3.5 – 9.5 points;
• Giants 7-1 “under” in the 2nd of back to back home games… (I know it’s technically the Saints’ home game but it is being played at the Meadowlands after-all isnt’ it?)
• Giants 17-7 “under” off a home win of 10 or more points;
2. New Orleans +3.5 -105 NY Giants
3. New Orleans +169 ML NY GIANTS
I’m still not buying in to the Giants. I personally feel that they are a weak team. I also feel that the Saints are going to use Hurricane Katrina as an inspirational driving force for their season and if week 1 was any indication, they sure as hell convinced me that they can put their minds over matter. If the Saints were going to have a horrible game, last week was it but instead, they came out and proved a lot of people wrong.
I thin the Saints are much better on offense than the Giants. This fact will ultimately decide the outcome of this game. The Saints are road warriors, covering the spread in 12 of their last 17 road games. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. the NFC East and more importantly, 4-1 SU in those last 5 games vs. the NFC East. New Orleans is also 16-6 ATS on the road off a division win.
Now, not only have the Giants failed to cover the spread in their last 3 as favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points, but they are also 0-3 SU in their last 3 in that role. NY is also 9-16 SU in their last 25 vs. conference opponents and 0-2 SU in their last 2 Monday night appearances (2-11 SU in their last 13 Monday night appearances). They are also 0-5 SU in their last 5 vs. the NFC South and have won only 5 of their last 17 home games.
This is a good ML spot on the visiting Saints and I’m playing both the point spread and the moneyline here tonight.
4. WASHINGTON +7 at DALLAS
America’s team always seems to be good for a nice overlay, especially against a team with such poor public support as Washington. My own line makes this game Dallas -2.5 so I’m finding considerable value on the Redskins here.
For starters, don’t underestimate Washington’s defense. Dallas scored some points last week on what I consider to be a weaker defense than Washington’s and I do not think that Bledsoe will have as much comfort in this one tonight.
Remember, Washington ranked third in the NFL and first in the NFC in team defense last season. They also finished third against the rush and seventh against the pass in the NFL. Greg Williams is the defensive coordinator for the Redskins and he coached Bledsoe and knows how to disrupt him to make him uncomfortable. Bledsoe is an incredibly over-rated quarterback and he will come back down to his usual form tonight. He was sacked 4 times last week and should see a lot of blitzes tonight. Last week this defense limited Chicago to only 141 yards of net offense while Clinton Portis chewed up the Chicago defense for 121 rushing yards.
Here’s some trend data for you guys to much on…
The Redskins are 16-4 ATS as road Underdogs of between +4.0 to +7.5 in their last 20 games in this role; (5-1 ATS last 6)
Washington is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 as dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points;
Waiting to see if the Cowboys total drifts lower....I'd love to catch it at 35 or lower cause my numbers have this game finishing above the total.
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