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10-7 (YTD)
Raiders +8.5
First I realize this might be a slightily better line then most can now get but I acted early. Basic reasonming is that I have liked what I have seen defensively from Oakland this year especially against the run. Philly doesnt have much at WR after TO, Lewis and Brown but Owens is apparently questionable with a abdomen injury. That could leave a serious hole especially when as I said undersized Westbrook and newbie Gordon will struggle to run vs this defense. Not to be missed is David Akers possibly missing the game with a hamstring injury and having untested Todd France replace him is a significant dropoff. On the Oakland side its really the same ole story of missed opps and costly penalities. I for one have not enjoyed Novr Turners offensive game plan as he IMO has relied to much on the deep ball. Oakland has been right ther against two quality opps and has the personel to give any team hell. They should have beat Oakland but lost 11 pts to penalities with Moss Offensive interference and Jordans TD be called back cause of holding, not to mention the ball inside the 15 of KC with 2 to play only to fail to score. Phillys defense is awesome but that deep ball that Jenkins caught in week 1 has had me thinking can Oakland stretch the field as well??? I do admit that I hate the fact a West Coast team is playing on the East Coast at 1 PM a trend I usually use BUT I feel the balancing factor was the line inflation due to Philly spanking a SF team that doesnt have the personnel to match Philly. As you know I was heavy on Philly and expected an embarrassing blowout loss for them. So dont put to much into that game. Also with McNabb and Owens nursing injuries and the Giants on deck I wonder if Philly would get ultra conservative with a lead opening the backdoor up.
Colts -12
While Indys defense has only played Jax and Baltimore it does look vastily improved over recent years. I think Cleveland took advantage off some poor tackling for 2 busted plays for TDS and shaky play by Favre. Cleveland with or without Lee Suggs will probably struggle tun the ball leaving Dilfer and an average WR corps to beat you. I think Indy did a great job last eyar of beating up on soft teams and Cleveland falls into that category. Theyprobably wont top 17 pts if that that much and I definetly feel Indy scores 30 something pts here vs a team that doesnt have the depth to cover Indys WR's. Really not much to say hear IMO.
Packers +4
Oh the overreaction !!! Linesmakers are well aware that th epublic feels Bret Favre is done when in reeality the only thing that has changed is Brett tries to force to many passes now that the talent around him has diminished. How TB is favored I just dont know. WHat have they done?? Who didnt believe that TB woul dbeat Buffalo at home???Losman is not ready to command an offense let alone on the road vs a defens elike TB's. They beat Minny so what! The Vikings are a disaster right now sur ethey have talent but thats abouy it. Pulled that Covers article that said if this game was being set in the offseason the line woul dhave been -6 and if GB had won it would have ben -3 . So they are tellling they are overadjusting based on 1 GAME!! Now GB has bever lost 4 staright games under Brett and that is rteh situation at hand. Also I believe they have been an underdog just 4 times in Bretts term. TB is a warm weather team playing in a cold weather venue. Game time TEMP means little as TB has a history of zero success @ GB losing 13 staright there. SUre the cold weather has alot to do with but do you really think TB is comfortable playing in a place it has lost 13 staright times even if its 60 or 70 something degrees at kickoff! TB isnt that much different then last years version. Cadillac didnt do much vs Minny outside of wering them down for 1 big carry and Buffalo is soft vs the run since they lost Washington and Adams past few offseasons. Dont buy into Favre acting like GB is going down what a great ploy to make TB take you lightily!! GB has issues liek pass protection and tackling but ultimately it comes down to Brett's decision making as he simply cant put ghis defense in bad situtaions AND he cant take points off the board with forced INT's. TB isnt as good against the RUN as the 2 games imply. Also tyhe fact that such a low total has been set tells me points will be tough to come which makes me like the home dog even further. Hoping that Bubba Franks is healtthy enough to play as IMO he and Green can offset Walkers loss by becoming more involved in teh passing game.
Cardinals +6.5
Not a tough call for me considering the fact Arizona has dropped something like 21 of 22 away games. Reason being is that Seattle with there inconsistencies on both sides of the ball have become an awful favorite!! Arizona has played well enough to lose twice now. Special teams took them out of that NYG game and Red Zone ineffeciency vs StL as well as clock mismanagement cost them a WIN vs STL.
Then we have Seattle running out early vs Atlanta only having to fight to hold on late typical Seattle football. I have confidence in Arizona for various simple reasons liek new QB learning his players, new defensive players trying to forge an identity, Steponvich playing in hsi 1st game last week , and also Arizona WR's having a huge height advantage over Seattles secondary. If Seattle fails to get to Warner he could have a very good day also with SHipp seeing more tim ethe running game automatically improves. I look for alot of points and for this to go down to the wire!! Arizona must keep Alexanders numbers respectable.
Patriots +3
I wont even get into many details with this one. First is despite NE losing they didnt play that poorly just some bad breaks IMO. Second is gimme the points with NE coming off a SU loss. Who has Pitt played so far?? Houston and Tennesse those werent tests. What has changed that this line has moved 6 pts since the AFC Championship game when NE was -3 @ Heinz Field??? Oh yeah Public sentiment. NE has some injuries that concern me in the secondary but I want to see Big Ben and the offense solve NE defense before I believe in them. Where are the people saying dont doubt NE now??
Over 41.5 -120 Giants / Chargers
Personally after watching the giants sell out to stop the run vs NO I cant see how they will stop or limit Brees in the passing game. LT and Gates are mismatches for everyone but especially for the Giants who couldnt cover Ernie Conwell. Think NY can throw on SD as well.
Raiders +8.5
First I realize this might be a slightily better line then most can now get but I acted early. Basic reasonming is that I have liked what I have seen defensively from Oakland this year especially against the run. Philly doesnt have much at WR after TO, Lewis and Brown but Owens is apparently questionable with a abdomen injury. That could leave a serious hole especially when as I said undersized Westbrook and newbie Gordon will struggle to run vs this defense. Not to be missed is David Akers possibly missing the game with a hamstring injury and having untested Todd France replace him is a significant dropoff. On the Oakland side its really the same ole story of missed opps and costly penalities. I for one have not enjoyed Novr Turners offensive game plan as he IMO has relied to much on the deep ball. Oakland has been right ther against two quality opps and has the personel to give any team hell. They should have beat Oakland but lost 11 pts to penalities with Moss Offensive interference and Jordans TD be called back cause of holding, not to mention the ball inside the 15 of KC with 2 to play only to fail to score. Phillys defense is awesome but that deep ball that Jenkins caught in week 1 has had me thinking can Oakland stretch the field as well??? I do admit that I hate the fact a West Coast team is playing on the East Coast at 1 PM a trend I usually use BUT I feel the balancing factor was the line inflation due to Philly spanking a SF team that doesnt have the personnel to match Philly. As you know I was heavy on Philly and expected an embarrassing blowout loss for them. So dont put to much into that game. Also with McNabb and Owens nursing injuries and the Giants on deck I wonder if Philly would get ultra conservative with a lead opening the backdoor up.
Colts -12
While Indys defense has only played Jax and Baltimore it does look vastily improved over recent years. I think Cleveland took advantage off some poor tackling for 2 busted plays for TDS and shaky play by Favre. Cleveland with or without Lee Suggs will probably struggle tun the ball leaving Dilfer and an average WR corps to beat you. I think Indy did a great job last eyar of beating up on soft teams and Cleveland falls into that category. Theyprobably wont top 17 pts if that that much and I definetly feel Indy scores 30 something pts here vs a team that doesnt have the depth to cover Indys WR's. Really not much to say hear IMO.
Packers +4
Oh the overreaction !!! Linesmakers are well aware that th epublic feels Bret Favre is done when in reeality the only thing that has changed is Brett tries to force to many passes now that the talent around him has diminished. How TB is favored I just dont know. WHat have they done?? Who didnt believe that TB woul dbeat Buffalo at home???Losman is not ready to command an offense let alone on the road vs a defens elike TB's. They beat Minny so what! The Vikings are a disaster right now sur ethey have talent but thats abouy it. Pulled that Covers article that said if this game was being set in the offseason the line woul dhave been -6 and if GB had won it would have ben -3 . So they are tellling they are overadjusting based on 1 GAME!! Now GB has bever lost 4 staright games under Brett and that is rteh situation at hand. Also I believe they have been an underdog just 4 times in Bretts term. TB is a warm weather team playing in a cold weather venue. Game time TEMP means little as TB has a history of zero success @ GB losing 13 staright there. SUre the cold weather has alot to do with but do you really think TB is comfortable playing in a place it has lost 13 staright times even if its 60 or 70 something degrees at kickoff! TB isnt that much different then last years version. Cadillac didnt do much vs Minny outside of wering them down for 1 big carry and Buffalo is soft vs the run since they lost Washington and Adams past few offseasons. Dont buy into Favre acting like GB is going down what a great ploy to make TB take you lightily!! GB has issues liek pass protection and tackling but ultimately it comes down to Brett's decision making as he simply cant put ghis defense in bad situtaions AND he cant take points off the board with forced INT's. TB isnt as good against the RUN as the 2 games imply. Also tyhe fact that such a low total has been set tells me points will be tough to come which makes me like the home dog even further. Hoping that Bubba Franks is healtthy enough to play as IMO he and Green can offset Walkers loss by becoming more involved in teh passing game.
Cardinals +6.5
Not a tough call for me considering the fact Arizona has dropped something like 21 of 22 away games. Reason being is that Seattle with there inconsistencies on both sides of the ball have become an awful favorite!! Arizona has played well enough to lose twice now. Special teams took them out of that NYG game and Red Zone ineffeciency vs StL as well as clock mismanagement cost them a WIN vs STL.
Then we have Seattle running out early vs Atlanta only having to fight to hold on late typical Seattle football. I have confidence in Arizona for various simple reasons liek new QB learning his players, new defensive players trying to forge an identity, Steponvich playing in hsi 1st game last week , and also Arizona WR's having a huge height advantage over Seattles secondary. If Seattle fails to get to Warner he could have a very good day also with SHipp seeing more tim ethe running game automatically improves. I look for alot of points and for this to go down to the wire!! Arizona must keep Alexanders numbers respectable.
Patriots +3
I wont even get into many details with this one. First is despite NE losing they didnt play that poorly just some bad breaks IMO. Second is gimme the points with NE coming off a SU loss. Who has Pitt played so far?? Houston and Tennesse those werent tests. What has changed that this line has moved 6 pts since the AFC Championship game when NE was -3 @ Heinz Field??? Oh yeah Public sentiment. NE has some injuries that concern me in the secondary but I want to see Big Ben and the offense solve NE defense before I believe in them. Where are the people saying dont doubt NE now??
Over 41.5 -120 Giants / Chargers
Personally after watching the giants sell out to stop the run vs NO I cant see how they will stop or limit Brees in the passing game. LT and Gates are mismatches for everyone but especially for the Giants who couldnt cover Ernie Conwell. Think NY can throw on SD as well.
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