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White Sox ML -182
I hate laying chalk but I feel the situation warrants it. This is NOT about a must win game or anything like that. Its simply about IMO if fatigue will play a factor early in this series it will be today. People were talking about the LA pen being taxed yesterday and thought that was not the case. However with Shields going 2 innings last nite I think he is tired. In that second inning he lost alot of velocity on his fastball. Even there closer K-Rod has pitched consecutive nites and to be honest hasnt looked that sharp. Donnelly seems to fallen out favor a bit and Escobar should be ready for an innings worth of work tonite. If the excessive travel will affect them then today is the day as it usually takes a day to set in as the adrenaline wears off.
LA starts Washburn who was extremely sick a few days ago and had to miss his schedule start. With LA 's current situation needing SP with the loss of Colon you know these guys are laying it on the line giving all they have. Meaning Washburn knows the alternative to him not starting is Kevin Gregg. So just cause he is starting doesnt exactly clarify how he feels. I am sure he wasnt throwing for a few days while he was sick. What I do know is Washburn has battled injuries in the 2nd Half of 2005{just 66innings}. Now a concern with any pitcher is inactivity and Washburn fits the bill. He pitched 2 innings on 10/1 prior to that he started vs TB on 9/24 lasting 6 innings but hadnt started since 9/9 @ Chicago before that. So in about the past 5 weeks he has had 8 innings of work and in the past 10,11 days just 2 innings. Hard to imagine he will be sharp. Even though people will look at his away numbers and be impressed its hard to believe he will that type of SP tonite. He does have problems at times vs RHP and the Sox big sticks have hit well in limited AB's {42/104 Konerko , Dye , Rowand, Uribe}. He should face 7 RHB and Podsednik isnt an easy out vs a lefty{.330 BA}. The interesting move could be if Widger gets a start here being in a few abs he has hit Washburn well and AJ could probably use a day off.
As for Buerhle he has been tough at home{11-2 2.65 ERA/13-5 team W/L} all year. The only knock I see on him is lately he hasnt been his best posting 6 starts in his last 10 were he allowed at least 4 runs. LAA made some adjustments vs LHP and improved its numbers offensively vs them as the year went on. The White Sox have a full pen as Contreras was strong last nite.
Really like the OVER here but hoping to see it drop to 8 runs.
Houston Astros +160 (value play)
There is not much to this the play other then I dont feel Carpenter is a 100%. His last start looked good on paper but SD had some chances to score and just blew them. Not to mention his fastball was only in the high 80's and that was after a run of 4 starts where he was hit pretty hard. Pettitte and Contreras have been the two top SP since the Break. Pettitte has pitched well in all 3 starts vs StL this year and I look for that to continue. Carpenter was dominanting the first 4 times he faced Houston till they hit him in the Sept start. So this will be the 6th time they see him this year. Not much else to say.
I hate laying chalk but I feel the situation warrants it. This is NOT about a must win game or anything like that. Its simply about IMO if fatigue will play a factor early in this series it will be today. People were talking about the LA pen being taxed yesterday and thought that was not the case. However with Shields going 2 innings last nite I think he is tired. In that second inning he lost alot of velocity on his fastball. Even there closer K-Rod has pitched consecutive nites and to be honest hasnt looked that sharp. Donnelly seems to fallen out favor a bit and Escobar should be ready for an innings worth of work tonite. If the excessive travel will affect them then today is the day as it usually takes a day to set in as the adrenaline wears off.
LA starts Washburn who was extremely sick a few days ago and had to miss his schedule start. With LA 's current situation needing SP with the loss of Colon you know these guys are laying it on the line giving all they have. Meaning Washburn knows the alternative to him not starting is Kevin Gregg. So just cause he is starting doesnt exactly clarify how he feels. I am sure he wasnt throwing for a few days while he was sick. What I do know is Washburn has battled injuries in the 2nd Half of 2005{just 66innings}. Now a concern with any pitcher is inactivity and Washburn fits the bill. He pitched 2 innings on 10/1 prior to that he started vs TB on 9/24 lasting 6 innings but hadnt started since 9/9 @ Chicago before that. So in about the past 5 weeks he has had 8 innings of work and in the past 10,11 days just 2 innings. Hard to imagine he will be sharp. Even though people will look at his away numbers and be impressed its hard to believe he will that type of SP tonite. He does have problems at times vs RHP and the Sox big sticks have hit well in limited AB's {42/104 Konerko , Dye , Rowand, Uribe}. He should face 7 RHB and Podsednik isnt an easy out vs a lefty{.330 BA}. The interesting move could be if Widger gets a start here being in a few abs he has hit Washburn well and AJ could probably use a day off.
As for Buerhle he has been tough at home{11-2 2.65 ERA/13-5 team W/L} all year. The only knock I see on him is lately he hasnt been his best posting 6 starts in his last 10 were he allowed at least 4 runs. LAA made some adjustments vs LHP and improved its numbers offensively vs them as the year went on. The White Sox have a full pen as Contreras was strong last nite.
Really like the OVER here but hoping to see it drop to 8 runs.
Houston Astros +160 (value play)
There is not much to this the play other then I dont feel Carpenter is a 100%. His last start looked good on paper but SD had some chances to score and just blew them. Not to mention his fastball was only in the high 80's and that was after a run of 4 starts where he was hit pretty hard. Pettitte and Contreras have been the two top SP since the Break. Pettitte has pitched well in all 3 starts vs StL this year and I look for that to continue. Carpenter was dominanting the first 4 times he faced Houston till they hit him in the Sept start. So this will be the 6th time they see him this year. Not much else to say.
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