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I am leaving town in a bit so I thought I would post some early plays.
Ole Miss +13
To be honest I think this game should be closer to -10 but we get Bama off the Fla win and they pump it up. You have to ask the question will Alabama letdown after a big home win now traveling{ there was time off in bewteen}. I never EVER like the situation where a team is a HOME DOG one game then travels the Next and is heavy ROAD CHALK. My logic is even the opponents are of different caliber still to not be regarded as the better team on your field then go to someone else house and suddenly be significantly better then that team just doesnt make sense to me. As far as the line Miss hosted a great Auburn team catching 16 last year and Tenny catching 10. Played @ Bama catching 11.
Alabama has had trouble past 2 games they have played @ Ole Miss. Alabama has run the ball extremely well which generally means eating up clock and few quick scores. Ole Miss has done a good job stopping the run albeit vs softer opps but still dont see Bama just running over Miss here. Miss just played a solid defensive game @ Tenn{27 pts....7 off an INT and 7 scored with 2 to go in the game}. Not to mention the total is 39 which tells us points SHOULD be hard to come by.
Lets look at the credibility of this game for Ole Miss. This is Orgeron biggest home game to date and I feel any coach wants to show his alumni and fans he will turn it around . So a good situation for the Miss staff as well IMO.
Bama has failed to cover as chalk vs SoMiss , Arkansas and Mid Ten St. They have not been a near 2 TD road fav as well.
All in all I agree that Miss is not a very good offense but I am comfortable in expecting a 24-14 type game. All about the situation here.
Wake Forest +14.5
Whats to say here other then I think the line is to high. Wake has beat them the past 2 years including @ BC. In last years game @ Wake the line was a PK and BC had Peterson @ QB. WF strength is running the ball with that they should be able to keep control of TOP. The Deacons have played better with Cory Randolph @ QB then Mauck.
Colorado +18.5
Lets just keep this at Colorado is playing real good defense and again Texas coming of a big win vs Oklahom a might be flat here. Not to be lost is the Texas/TT game that follows this so maybe a sandwich game.
Michigan -2.5
Just about every situational play I can think of leads me to Michigan. Unranked fav vs ranked dog. Penn St coming off a big upset playing team coming off a disappointing home loss. Bottomline is IMO this line is much lower thanks to consecutive Penn St HOME wins emphasis on home!! Not to mention the Michigan SU loss to Minny. Penn St has played 1 road game this year!!! Look at what happened when Ohio St finally traveled. Look at that road game. Penn St played sloppy on offense vs a bad defense that wont have that luxury vs Michigan. EVeryone is basing there opinion on Penn St based on 5 home games IMO. Yes this Nittany Lion team has improved as I loved there defense last year but what was there major problem?? SCORING and they only managed 17 vs Ohio St at home and lets just say they caught Minny in a perfect spot in bewteen two big rivals Purdue and Michigan. This line should be closer to 7 points IMO. For me its about expecting a Penn St team to win at one of the toughest places in the country when they havent proven they can do so on the road. Great spot for the letdown IMO.
Under 44-120 Penn St
Just sold on Penn St offense and think Michigan will be around 24 points.
Washington St +7
For me we have Wash St a team who can run the ball vs a UCLA team that cant stop the run. UCLA struggles vs Wash St in the past and hasnt won in awhile at Wash St. Great spot for Wash St who lost at home to Stanford as 2 TD favs with UCLA coming off abig home win vs Cal that is misleading since they trailed nearly the entire game. UCLA hasnt played on the road since SDST. Big move in this game and have to feel its the "sharps" moving it.
Hawaii -19.5
I think in general Hawaii is a better team defensively this year even though the stats might not say so{thanks to playing USC and Mich St}. NM St has played at home vs Fresno and Cal scoring just 20pts combined there offense isnt much to speak of. They have allowed at least 34 points in every game and thrown 13 Ints. There best outcomes have been 17pt losses to UTEP and @ NM. A bad team playing in a place where they are at the biggest disadvantage just mt stepping off the plane. Even something like 38 -17 gets it done.
Fla Intl +1
Honestly feel that this NT squad shouldnt be favored over anyone on the road. FIU plays its first home game and that should provide some added incentive. NT is much worse then most expected mainly due in the inability to get production from the QB. They couldnt even beat an equally inept offense liek Troy at home.
Under 49 -108 UConn/Cincy
Of course I wait to post it and it moves to 47.5. Simple reasong UConn lost there QB last game and are now going with the very mobile youngster who I will say wont make many yards thru the air. He will keep the chains moving scarmbling though. The Huskies already have a very good run game and are stacked at RB. I look for the Huskies to take the pressure of the youngster and just try and run over Cincy. We know Cincys offense is non existent and teh Huskies defense is solid.
Ole Miss +13
To be honest I think this game should be closer to -10 but we get Bama off the Fla win and they pump it up. You have to ask the question will Alabama letdown after a big home win now traveling{ there was time off in bewteen}. I never EVER like the situation where a team is a HOME DOG one game then travels the Next and is heavy ROAD CHALK. My logic is even the opponents are of different caliber still to not be regarded as the better team on your field then go to someone else house and suddenly be significantly better then that team just doesnt make sense to me. As far as the line Miss hosted a great Auburn team catching 16 last year and Tenny catching 10. Played @ Bama catching 11.
Alabama has had trouble past 2 games they have played @ Ole Miss. Alabama has run the ball extremely well which generally means eating up clock and few quick scores. Ole Miss has done a good job stopping the run albeit vs softer opps but still dont see Bama just running over Miss here. Miss just played a solid defensive game @ Tenn{27 pts....7 off an INT and 7 scored with 2 to go in the game}. Not to mention the total is 39 which tells us points SHOULD be hard to come by.
Lets look at the credibility of this game for Ole Miss. This is Orgeron biggest home game to date and I feel any coach wants to show his alumni and fans he will turn it around . So a good situation for the Miss staff as well IMO.
Bama has failed to cover as chalk vs SoMiss , Arkansas and Mid Ten St. They have not been a near 2 TD road fav as well.
All in all I agree that Miss is not a very good offense but I am comfortable in expecting a 24-14 type game. All about the situation here.
Wake Forest +14.5
Whats to say here other then I think the line is to high. Wake has beat them the past 2 years including @ BC. In last years game @ Wake the line was a PK and BC had Peterson @ QB. WF strength is running the ball with that they should be able to keep control of TOP. The Deacons have played better with Cory Randolph @ QB then Mauck.
Colorado +18.5
Lets just keep this at Colorado is playing real good defense and again Texas coming of a big win vs Oklahom a might be flat here. Not to be lost is the Texas/TT game that follows this so maybe a sandwich game.
Michigan -2.5
Just about every situational play I can think of leads me to Michigan. Unranked fav vs ranked dog. Penn St coming off a big upset playing team coming off a disappointing home loss. Bottomline is IMO this line is much lower thanks to consecutive Penn St HOME wins emphasis on home!! Not to mention the Michigan SU loss to Minny. Penn St has played 1 road game this year!!! Look at what happened when Ohio St finally traveled. Look at that road game. Penn St played sloppy on offense vs a bad defense that wont have that luxury vs Michigan. EVeryone is basing there opinion on Penn St based on 5 home games IMO. Yes this Nittany Lion team has improved as I loved there defense last year but what was there major problem?? SCORING and they only managed 17 vs Ohio St at home and lets just say they caught Minny in a perfect spot in bewteen two big rivals Purdue and Michigan. This line should be closer to 7 points IMO. For me its about expecting a Penn St team to win at one of the toughest places in the country when they havent proven they can do so on the road. Great spot for the letdown IMO.
Under 44-120 Penn St
Just sold on Penn St offense and think Michigan will be around 24 points.
Washington St +7
For me we have Wash St a team who can run the ball vs a UCLA team that cant stop the run. UCLA struggles vs Wash St in the past and hasnt won in awhile at Wash St. Great spot for Wash St who lost at home to Stanford as 2 TD favs with UCLA coming off abig home win vs Cal that is misleading since they trailed nearly the entire game. UCLA hasnt played on the road since SDST. Big move in this game and have to feel its the "sharps" moving it.
Hawaii -19.5
I think in general Hawaii is a better team defensively this year even though the stats might not say so{thanks to playing USC and Mich St}. NM St has played at home vs Fresno and Cal scoring just 20pts combined there offense isnt much to speak of. They have allowed at least 34 points in every game and thrown 13 Ints. There best outcomes have been 17pt losses to UTEP and @ NM. A bad team playing in a place where they are at the biggest disadvantage just mt stepping off the plane. Even something like 38 -17 gets it done.
Fla Intl +1
Honestly feel that this NT squad shouldnt be favored over anyone on the road. FIU plays its first home game and that should provide some added incentive. NT is much worse then most expected mainly due in the inability to get production from the QB. They couldnt even beat an equally inept offense liek Troy at home.
Under 49 -108 UConn/Cincy
Of course I wait to post it and it moves to 47.5. Simple reasong UConn lost there QB last game and are now going with the very mobile youngster who I will say wont make many yards thru the air. He will keep the chains moving scarmbling though. The Huskies already have a very good run game and are stacked at RB. I look for the Huskies to take the pressure of the youngster and just try and run over Cincy. We know Cincys offense is non existent and teh Huskies defense is solid.