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32-22 ATS YTD Posted
Miami - 1.5 (already posted this one in its own thread)
To be honest not really sure how Miami is favored being that KC is probably slightily worse then Denver and they were 5.5 pt chalk. I know obviously a bad line but Carolina was -3 here and lost a close one. Guess I was expecting more of the same here -2 or -3 KC. So for value the line doesnt present much but either way Miami had to really win SU anyway. My feeling is since that great week 1 performance KC has looked like shit. They have won 2 games @ Oakland and vs Washington that they really had no business winning, they blew a 17pt lead at home and were smoked at Denver. I think Denver is similiar to Miami. SOlid defense good running game that fuels the passing game. Now the good defense comes into question with Seau and Taylor hurting and questionable at this point. I honestly think the switch to Friday just kills KC here. There about to go pratice and someone says btw the game is now friday. I cant see how that doesnt just destroy your approach. They have to fly gameday and IMo just rush around from the moment they wake up Friday moring till they play tonite. Miami was home they get a full pratice in yesterday while KC is on plane they can get therapy and watch film. Just a shit spot with SD on deck. They might be looking at the game as well. Talent doesnt win games alone and nothing from the execution standpoint recently leads me to believe KC wil stop Miami on the ground and actual develop a passing game.
Vikings +2
My only concern is the rumors about Tice quitting on the team OR the Vikings quitting on Tice. Cant speak for the players BUT I would think Tice has much more to lose then any player in this situation. He is teh Captain of a sinking ship and a new job will be hard to come by if this continues. Minny losses arent so bad if you think about it in this context. Did we expect Min to win @ Atlanta , @ Cincy or @ Chicago. Now maybe @ chicago but they have lost there in recent years. The home loss @ TB is a negative but still TB is 5-1 they arent losing to bad teams as Atl , cincy and TB are something like 14-4 combined. So tough schedule early combined with injuries to key players and turmoil will produce problems. Thing is in this series as I have said in other posts with Favre playing Culpepper how can the road team ever be favored in this series. Honestly Favre struggles in domes and Culpepper struggles outdoors on grass. Bad situations for them. Now at 1-4 its not like GB has there shit together. This is all overreaction to a gift wrapped 52-3 win vs NO and a gift wrapped 28-3 loss @ chicago as Minny moved the ball but made key mistakes. Minny gets 3 players back from injury which should help IMO.
Houston +15
Might be a foolish play but they have struggled on grass. Houston stinks but at home they might be able to put some points on the board as I think 17 would get the cover. Indy has zero to play for here. They have a BYE coming up after a MNF game and then have a game @ NE after the BYE. I expect Indy to pull there starters if they are up 3 TDS in the 2nd H. I watched Indy struggle vs SF who if they had any offense would have covered. Carr and Dominick Davis could be enough. Colts are soft vs the run and Davis is a good back better tehn Barlow who had no trouble running vs Indy.
Eagles -3
We know about the Eagles off a bye but lets not overlook SD 3rd road game in 4 weeks {second cross country}. SD secondary is extremely soft and while Phillys has struggled that was more on the road then at home. Philly has the capability while SD doesnt. Not much to say really I simply expect a bounce back effort from Philly and it is extremely tough towin @ Philly especially a West Coast team playing @ 1pm. Expect Darwin Walker to provide a boost .
Lions +3
Bottomline is I feel this line is OFF and should be a PK. Cleveland has done very little on offense all year.Didnt score a TD @ Indy or @ Balt. They have just 6 all year 2 came late in the closing minutes vs Chicago. IMO a product of letting the home team hang around for to long{second was off a turnover}. Then against GB they had 3 TDS 2 of which were busted plays vs GB where tackles and assignments were missed. Det defense is flying well under the radar but has been very good. This team almost won @ TB! Det will limit Droughns in the running game and Dilfer is struggling with very little weapons that Crennel admitted a QB change might be in teh near future. Would that be Derek Anderson or Charlie Frye I dont think they have a healthy vet QB could be mistaken though. People will say Harrington sucks and I wont be quick to disagree. The only thing he does is throw to Pollard whic is a matchup you can exploit vs Cleveland. Look at what the hobbled and previously limited Todd Heap did last week. Now the big factor. Look at who DET has played ..GB , Car , Chi @ TB @ Chi. Those are sick defenses so if your saying Kevin Jones hasnt run teh ball I believe those guys are bewtten 2.9 to 3.6 yds per carry against. Cleveland is around 4.3 and allows 140yds per game. Hopefully he is healthy enough to take advantage of that. Clevelands defensive weakness seem to be covering the TE and stopping th e run something DET has the talent to exploit. Like I said DET defense real solid and I dont expect much offense from Cleveland even at home. If Harrington fails and is yanked Garcia gets a chance at revenge vs Cleveland.
Skins -12.5
West Coast team playing on the East Coast at 1 Pm. Stats on this situation are amazing. SF has proven to be one of the worst teams on the road. They continually struggle on offense and yet allow 30+ points on defense. They are racked with injuries on both sides of the ball and start a QB making his 2nd career start who didnt look like he belonged. With Wash defense they should limit SF to less then 10 pts as SF has topped 14 points in just 2 of the past 10 road games. See tehre offense with Rattay @ Philly and @ Mexico!! Skins getting production from Brunell , Moss , Portis and Cooley.
Oakland -2.5
I must be insane! Backing Oakland w/o Randy Moss. Thing is to me that is part of the problem they just seem locked in on Moss when it comes to offense. Now they fave the worst team in teh NFL agaisnt the run and have LaMont Jordan to exploit that. Gabriel playing for Moss is no slouch! Everyone is hyping Buffalo but they won two home games vs struggling teams in Miami and NYJ. NY starts a "retired" QB who wasnt even in training camp. Miami is young and struggles on the road but still almost won. a rematch from last year but Buffalo coming off two tough home divisional games they won traveling cross country to play Oakland who has been home all month. Oakland can stop the run!
Cardinals -3
I Suspect McCown will QB since he is getting them in the end zone and Warner is not yet 100%. Tenny weakness is there secondary and guess what Arizona has a great corp of young WR's. The Titans will be without Bennett making them extremely young in the passing game and McNairs back has acted up. Arizona shows more life at home they took StL and Carolina to the wire. Despite some secondary injuries overall Cards are solid at home playing defense. Nice spot for there first true home win.
Pitt +1
Now healthy I expect a bounce back effort. Last year the line was -5. Not sold on Cincin being for real yet.
NYGiants -2
We know NY is a different team at home but go back to that Dallas game they absolutely outplayed the Cowboys at home. They had 2 huge turnovers on the 1yd line and a bunch of other poorly timed ones as well. That shouldnt happen at home. Also Denvers weakness is there secondary which is great for Eli Manning and Co. Denver coming off a big win hasnt done much on the road yet. Lost @ Miami and won @ Jacksonville who doesnt score consistently. LAst week for Plummer the defensive injuries for NE setup perfectly for him. They are thin in the secondary and worse not talented so with a great ground game to worry about the Pats were suckered into play actions and rollouts that resulted into long pass plays. The NYG defense stepped up immensely IMO last week and the grwoth my teh secondary was tremendous.
Seattle -2.5
Dallas coming off 2 tough divsional home games gets a Seattle team who mine as well have had a bye this week. Dallas hasnt traveled well and I again going out to the West Coast{lost @ SD and Oak almost @ SF}. There RB situation is a question mark at the moment. Seattle has shown it has finally arrived.
Falcons -6.5
Atlanta is thin in the secondary but dont think NYJ can exploit that as Vinny wont have time . Mawae OUT for the year is huge but now Ty Law is also questionable. I hate laying points with Vick but we all know the winner on MNF almost always covers. NY just heading south.
Miami - 1.5 (already posted this one in its own thread)
To be honest not really sure how Miami is favored being that KC is probably slightily worse then Denver and they were 5.5 pt chalk. I know obviously a bad line but Carolina was -3 here and lost a close one. Guess I was expecting more of the same here -2 or -3 KC. So for value the line doesnt present much but either way Miami had to really win SU anyway. My feeling is since that great week 1 performance KC has looked like shit. They have won 2 games @ Oakland and vs Washington that they really had no business winning, they blew a 17pt lead at home and were smoked at Denver. I think Denver is similiar to Miami. SOlid defense good running game that fuels the passing game. Now the good defense comes into question with Seau and Taylor hurting and questionable at this point. I honestly think the switch to Friday just kills KC here. There about to go pratice and someone says btw the game is now friday. I cant see how that doesnt just destroy your approach. They have to fly gameday and IMo just rush around from the moment they wake up Friday moring till they play tonite. Miami was home they get a full pratice in yesterday while KC is on plane they can get therapy and watch film. Just a shit spot with SD on deck. They might be looking at the game as well. Talent doesnt win games alone and nothing from the execution standpoint recently leads me to believe KC wil stop Miami on the ground and actual develop a passing game.
Vikings +2
My only concern is the rumors about Tice quitting on the team OR the Vikings quitting on Tice. Cant speak for the players BUT I would think Tice has much more to lose then any player in this situation. He is teh Captain of a sinking ship and a new job will be hard to come by if this continues. Minny losses arent so bad if you think about it in this context. Did we expect Min to win @ Atlanta , @ Cincy or @ Chicago. Now maybe @ chicago but they have lost there in recent years. The home loss @ TB is a negative but still TB is 5-1 they arent losing to bad teams as Atl , cincy and TB are something like 14-4 combined. So tough schedule early combined with injuries to key players and turmoil will produce problems. Thing is in this series as I have said in other posts with Favre playing Culpepper how can the road team ever be favored in this series. Honestly Favre struggles in domes and Culpepper struggles outdoors on grass. Bad situations for them. Now at 1-4 its not like GB has there shit together. This is all overreaction to a gift wrapped 52-3 win vs NO and a gift wrapped 28-3 loss @ chicago as Minny moved the ball but made key mistakes. Minny gets 3 players back from injury which should help IMO.
Houston +15
Might be a foolish play but they have struggled on grass. Houston stinks but at home they might be able to put some points on the board as I think 17 would get the cover. Indy has zero to play for here. They have a BYE coming up after a MNF game and then have a game @ NE after the BYE. I expect Indy to pull there starters if they are up 3 TDS in the 2nd H. I watched Indy struggle vs SF who if they had any offense would have covered. Carr and Dominick Davis could be enough. Colts are soft vs the run and Davis is a good back better tehn Barlow who had no trouble running vs Indy.
Eagles -3
We know about the Eagles off a bye but lets not overlook SD 3rd road game in 4 weeks {second cross country}. SD secondary is extremely soft and while Phillys has struggled that was more on the road then at home. Philly has the capability while SD doesnt. Not much to say really I simply expect a bounce back effort from Philly and it is extremely tough towin @ Philly especially a West Coast team playing @ 1pm. Expect Darwin Walker to provide a boost .
Lions +3
Bottomline is I feel this line is OFF and should be a PK. Cleveland has done very little on offense all year.Didnt score a TD @ Indy or @ Balt. They have just 6 all year 2 came late in the closing minutes vs Chicago. IMO a product of letting the home team hang around for to long{second was off a turnover}. Then against GB they had 3 TDS 2 of which were busted plays vs GB where tackles and assignments were missed. Det defense is flying well under the radar but has been very good. This team almost won @ TB! Det will limit Droughns in the running game and Dilfer is struggling with very little weapons that Crennel admitted a QB change might be in teh near future. Would that be Derek Anderson or Charlie Frye I dont think they have a healthy vet QB could be mistaken though. People will say Harrington sucks and I wont be quick to disagree. The only thing he does is throw to Pollard whic is a matchup you can exploit vs Cleveland. Look at what the hobbled and previously limited Todd Heap did last week. Now the big factor. Look at who DET has played ..GB , Car , Chi @ TB @ Chi. Those are sick defenses so if your saying Kevin Jones hasnt run teh ball I believe those guys are bewtten 2.9 to 3.6 yds per carry against. Cleveland is around 4.3 and allows 140yds per game. Hopefully he is healthy enough to take advantage of that. Clevelands defensive weakness seem to be covering the TE and stopping th e run something DET has the talent to exploit. Like I said DET defense real solid and I dont expect much offense from Cleveland even at home. If Harrington fails and is yanked Garcia gets a chance at revenge vs Cleveland.
Skins -12.5
West Coast team playing on the East Coast at 1 Pm. Stats on this situation are amazing. SF has proven to be one of the worst teams on the road. They continually struggle on offense and yet allow 30+ points on defense. They are racked with injuries on both sides of the ball and start a QB making his 2nd career start who didnt look like he belonged. With Wash defense they should limit SF to less then 10 pts as SF has topped 14 points in just 2 of the past 10 road games. See tehre offense with Rattay @ Philly and @ Mexico!! Skins getting production from Brunell , Moss , Portis and Cooley.
Oakland -2.5
I must be insane! Backing Oakland w/o Randy Moss. Thing is to me that is part of the problem they just seem locked in on Moss when it comes to offense. Now they fave the worst team in teh NFL agaisnt the run and have LaMont Jordan to exploit that. Gabriel playing for Moss is no slouch! Everyone is hyping Buffalo but they won two home games vs struggling teams in Miami and NYJ. NY starts a "retired" QB who wasnt even in training camp. Miami is young and struggles on the road but still almost won. a rematch from last year but Buffalo coming off two tough home divisional games they won traveling cross country to play Oakland who has been home all month. Oakland can stop the run!
Cardinals -3
I Suspect McCown will QB since he is getting them in the end zone and Warner is not yet 100%. Tenny weakness is there secondary and guess what Arizona has a great corp of young WR's. The Titans will be without Bennett making them extremely young in the passing game and McNairs back has acted up. Arizona shows more life at home they took StL and Carolina to the wire. Despite some secondary injuries overall Cards are solid at home playing defense. Nice spot for there first true home win.
Pitt +1
Now healthy I expect a bounce back effort. Last year the line was -5. Not sold on Cincin being for real yet.
NYGiants -2
We know NY is a different team at home but go back to that Dallas game they absolutely outplayed the Cowboys at home. They had 2 huge turnovers on the 1yd line and a bunch of other poorly timed ones as well. That shouldnt happen at home. Also Denvers weakness is there secondary which is great for Eli Manning and Co. Denver coming off a big win hasnt done much on the road yet. Lost @ Miami and won @ Jacksonville who doesnt score consistently. LAst week for Plummer the defensive injuries for NE setup perfectly for him. They are thin in the secondary and worse not talented so with a great ground game to worry about the Pats were suckered into play actions and rollouts that resulted into long pass plays. The NYG defense stepped up immensely IMO last week and the grwoth my teh secondary was tremendous.
Seattle -2.5
Dallas coming off 2 tough divsional home games gets a Seattle team who mine as well have had a bye this week. Dallas hasnt traveled well and I again going out to the West Coast{lost @ SD and Oak almost @ SF}. There RB situation is a question mark at the moment. Seattle has shown it has finally arrived.
Falcons -6.5
Atlanta is thin in the secondary but dont think NYJ can exploit that as Vinny wont have time . Mawae OUT for the year is huge but now Ty Law is also questionable. I hate laying points with Vick but we all know the winner on MNF almost always covers. NY just heading south.
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