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Oregon St -7
The Beavers are 3-1 at home while Zona has only defeated Northern Arizona all year. They have been somewhat competitive I just dont see enough offense for them to make a serious run at this game. People jumped on the Ore St bandwagon against UCLA and that loss I think had this line open soft. Last year Ore St was -7 @ Arizona{you would think at least DD's here} and has won the last 6 games in the series. Oregon St's pass defense numbers look real bad but they played Boise, SU and WSU at home three prolofic pass offenses. Arizona has allowed 500yds per game in away contest at USC , Utah and Cal.
Purdue +15
We all know these are 2 very different teams from last year. However I think alot of overreaction going on due to Penn St's run. I am a huge Penn St fan but last year Purdue was like 10 point favs and now they get 15?? Purdue is in a slide and I hope they continue to play hard as that is my only concern. There best games have come away from home IMO. Last week they were driving to take the lead and throw an 86 yd pick 6!! Purdue was a dog @ Minny and lost in OT and was a 7pt dog @ Wisky and lost on the late pick 6. Is Penn St 8 points better then Wisconsin?? Last weeks game @ Illini just misleading IMO as they were just outclassed. Good spot IMO for Purdue to get its first ATS win this year. I am still not sold on Robinson as a passer and Purdue is holding good rushing opps like Minny and Wisky to 3 yds per carry in its road games.
Oklahoma +2
Everyone seems to be down on Oklahoma but I just dont see it that way. Sure there offense is nothing compared to years past but your replacing a Heisman winning QB and your all world RB has been hobbled all year. Answer this how is Texas Tech -5 and this is a virtual PK game @ Nebraska? How is OU -29 last year @ Okl needing a late FG to get on the board and cover but with the same team is a PK??? Just what has Nebraska done this year and dont you feel that there defense has been exposed by TT and Mizzou?? Lets look at there last 5 games...starting with Pitt it was pretty obvious they should have lost. How many FG attempts did Pitt botch that day and still lost by 1. The defeat an Iowa Stteam that has struggled for years on the road in OT , They lost at hoem to another poor road team in TT. They scrap by Baylor and lose to Missouri most recently what is impressive. Nebraska has struggled to run and they wont run against Okl so Zac Taylor is going to shread a solid secondary....I dont think so? Everyone seems to be harping on the Baylor game but it seems Baylor got a little lucky. Peterson does play and the backup goes for 177 yds. Pretty nice. Okl has the TOP advantage 42minutes to 18 minutes. Baylor had a 97 yd kickoff return that kept them in the game and a 55yd TD to tie it late. Just feel this should have been Oklahoma -4.
Kansas St +8.5
My feeling is that Colorado hasnt played well on the road to justify this number. They didnt anything @ Miami and Texas. Granted tough venues but everyone is making to much noise about them IMO. They couldnt have played in Kansas in a better spot last week and really didnt impress me in that game as they used teh second half to pull away. KST was road chalk @ Colorado lastyear now a big home dawg. KST played sloppy vs A&M and hung with them after falling behind early. Now I brought up the point about Colorado being 4 or 5 points then A&M. Obviously Colorado did put it to A&M a few weeks back. Here's my stance. Game is at Colorado and the Buffs are 3 point favs which mean they are equal teams. Maybe the line was off a point or two but strength wise or power rating wise Ithink Colorado and A&M are relatively equal meaning this should probably be -4 at least in my eyes. It appears on paper you can pass on Colorado and Everidge seemed to play well last week.
Georgia +4.5
For me this is about defense. You look at Fla's offense vs the top 3 defenses it has played @ LSU , Tenn, @ Bama u see 17, 16 and 3. Thats not what I want to see from the team being favored. Who knows what Leaks condition is at this point. Both teams are solid on defense and even without Shockley this is a FG game IMO. Also we know this is a neutral site game and I think Georgia is less effected by not playing in front of its home crowd then Fla. Meyer is learning as he goes as IMO these are the biggest games he has ever coached in.
Wash St +30
USC seemingly set the public up by routing its first 3 opponenst aand now has failed to cash in 4 straight. While I am only kidding I think maybe USC lines ahve gotten ahead of the teams talent level. USC is awesome but in 4 straight games the defense has allowed 21 points or more and Wash St is very capable of scoring. Wash St may have lost 4 staright but 2 were by FG's, another by 4 points and the lone 11 point loss was misleading as they collapsed inteh 4th quarter and blew a DD halftime lead. SO yes points will be scored inthis matchup. If Wash St gets to 24 points this a huge number to cover and actually I feel that 24 is the key number since I am on the over and they what good be one or the other. The way Wash St is playing they should get to 24points. I dont buy teh USC is angry arguement . Truth is they havent played anyone and based on strength of schedule they probably shouldnt be #1.
Kansas +6.5
Missouri coming off a big win has always struggled in road matchups. There defense isnt very good and Mizzou has struggled vs Kansas in recent years. The Kansas offense showed some life and I believe they will score some on Saturday . There defense has played very well and might be able to keep Mizzou around 20 points or so. Also note that Mizzou has only played @ Ok St this year and won by just 7 allowing 31 point sto that offense as -5.5 pt favs . Iwould think Kansas is better then Ok St atthis point.
Texas Tech -11
Baylor has played well hanging tough but maybe that OT loss to Oklahoma weighs on them. Baylor hasnt played much at home and really has played suprisingly well on the road. If they lost the tOP like they did last week 42-18 minutes they will be in trouble vs a offense like TT. They couldnt beat Nebraska at home and TT went to Nebraska and won. Really after losing to Texas expect a better effort here. TT moved the ball vs a good defense but always seem to come up short for one reason or another when it cam eto putting points on the board. I hate road chalk and worse DD chalk but I am not sure that Baylor can score enough even though Bell is playing well.
LSU 1st Half -24.5
North Texas third staright road game is simply outclassed in every way. It sthe type of game where the home team wants to jump out early and then just cruise. If for some reason they are forced into a tough 1st Half I will play the LSU Tigers in the 2nd Half if they fail to cover and I get a respectable number.
Minnesota +4.5
My feeling is this game should not be higher the 3 points I missed a chance to have it at 6 points. Ohio St is just not playing well IMO.
The Beavers are 3-1 at home while Zona has only defeated Northern Arizona all year. They have been somewhat competitive I just dont see enough offense for them to make a serious run at this game. People jumped on the Ore St bandwagon against UCLA and that loss I think had this line open soft. Last year Ore St was -7 @ Arizona{you would think at least DD's here} and has won the last 6 games in the series. Oregon St's pass defense numbers look real bad but they played Boise, SU and WSU at home three prolofic pass offenses. Arizona has allowed 500yds per game in away contest at USC , Utah and Cal.
Purdue +15
We all know these are 2 very different teams from last year. However I think alot of overreaction going on due to Penn St's run. I am a huge Penn St fan but last year Purdue was like 10 point favs and now they get 15?? Purdue is in a slide and I hope they continue to play hard as that is my only concern. There best games have come away from home IMO. Last week they were driving to take the lead and throw an 86 yd pick 6!! Purdue was a dog @ Minny and lost in OT and was a 7pt dog @ Wisky and lost on the late pick 6. Is Penn St 8 points better then Wisconsin?? Last weeks game @ Illini just misleading IMO as they were just outclassed. Good spot IMO for Purdue to get its first ATS win this year. I am still not sold on Robinson as a passer and Purdue is holding good rushing opps like Minny and Wisky to 3 yds per carry in its road games.
Oklahoma +2
Everyone seems to be down on Oklahoma but I just dont see it that way. Sure there offense is nothing compared to years past but your replacing a Heisman winning QB and your all world RB has been hobbled all year. Answer this how is Texas Tech -5 and this is a virtual PK game @ Nebraska? How is OU -29 last year @ Okl needing a late FG to get on the board and cover but with the same team is a PK??? Just what has Nebraska done this year and dont you feel that there defense has been exposed by TT and Mizzou?? Lets look at there last 5 games...starting with Pitt it was pretty obvious they should have lost. How many FG attempts did Pitt botch that day and still lost by 1. The defeat an Iowa Stteam that has struggled for years on the road in OT , They lost at hoem to another poor road team in TT. They scrap by Baylor and lose to Missouri most recently what is impressive. Nebraska has struggled to run and they wont run against Okl so Zac Taylor is going to shread a solid secondary....I dont think so? Everyone seems to be harping on the Baylor game but it seems Baylor got a little lucky. Peterson does play and the backup goes for 177 yds. Pretty nice. Okl has the TOP advantage 42minutes to 18 minutes. Baylor had a 97 yd kickoff return that kept them in the game and a 55yd TD to tie it late. Just feel this should have been Oklahoma -4.
Kansas St +8.5
My feeling is that Colorado hasnt played well on the road to justify this number. They didnt anything @ Miami and Texas. Granted tough venues but everyone is making to much noise about them IMO. They couldnt have played in Kansas in a better spot last week and really didnt impress me in that game as they used teh second half to pull away. KST was road chalk @ Colorado lastyear now a big home dawg. KST played sloppy vs A&M and hung with them after falling behind early. Now I brought up the point about Colorado being 4 or 5 points then A&M. Obviously Colorado did put it to A&M a few weeks back. Here's my stance. Game is at Colorado and the Buffs are 3 point favs which mean they are equal teams. Maybe the line was off a point or two but strength wise or power rating wise Ithink Colorado and A&M are relatively equal meaning this should probably be -4 at least in my eyes. It appears on paper you can pass on Colorado and Everidge seemed to play well last week.
Georgia +4.5
For me this is about defense. You look at Fla's offense vs the top 3 defenses it has played @ LSU , Tenn, @ Bama u see 17, 16 and 3. Thats not what I want to see from the team being favored. Who knows what Leaks condition is at this point. Both teams are solid on defense and even without Shockley this is a FG game IMO. Also we know this is a neutral site game and I think Georgia is less effected by not playing in front of its home crowd then Fla. Meyer is learning as he goes as IMO these are the biggest games he has ever coached in.
Wash St +30
USC seemingly set the public up by routing its first 3 opponenst aand now has failed to cash in 4 straight. While I am only kidding I think maybe USC lines ahve gotten ahead of the teams talent level. USC is awesome but in 4 straight games the defense has allowed 21 points or more and Wash St is very capable of scoring. Wash St may have lost 4 staright but 2 were by FG's, another by 4 points and the lone 11 point loss was misleading as they collapsed inteh 4th quarter and blew a DD halftime lead. SO yes points will be scored inthis matchup. If Wash St gets to 24 points this a huge number to cover and actually I feel that 24 is the key number since I am on the over and they what good be one or the other. The way Wash St is playing they should get to 24points. I dont buy teh USC is angry arguement . Truth is they havent played anyone and based on strength of schedule they probably shouldnt be #1.
Kansas +6.5
Missouri coming off a big win has always struggled in road matchups. There defense isnt very good and Mizzou has struggled vs Kansas in recent years. The Kansas offense showed some life and I believe they will score some on Saturday . There defense has played very well and might be able to keep Mizzou around 20 points or so. Also note that Mizzou has only played @ Ok St this year and won by just 7 allowing 31 point sto that offense as -5.5 pt favs . Iwould think Kansas is better then Ok St atthis point.
Texas Tech -11
Baylor has played well hanging tough but maybe that OT loss to Oklahoma weighs on them. Baylor hasnt played much at home and really has played suprisingly well on the road. If they lost the tOP like they did last week 42-18 minutes they will be in trouble vs a offense like TT. They couldnt beat Nebraska at home and TT went to Nebraska and won. Really after losing to Texas expect a better effort here. TT moved the ball vs a good defense but always seem to come up short for one reason or another when it cam eto putting points on the board. I hate road chalk and worse DD chalk but I am not sure that Baylor can score enough even though Bell is playing well.
LSU 1st Half -24.5
North Texas third staright road game is simply outclassed in every way. It sthe type of game where the home team wants to jump out early and then just cruise. If for some reason they are forced into a tough 1st Half I will play the LSU Tigers in the 2nd Half if they fail to cover and I get a respectable number.
Minnesota +4.5
My feeling is this game should not be higher the 3 points I missed a chance to have it at 6 points. Ohio St is just not playing well IMO.
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