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SD - 6
The line opened at -5 1/2 and has gone up to -7 in some places. And though the Jets are off a bye, I expect the Chargers to pull through here. They are the better team offensively and defensively. The Chargers have an above average rushing and passing attack and they will be facing a way below average defense against the rush. This is where LT comes in. He has been almost invisible the last two games rushing for 76 yards and no tds combined, although he did pass for one, and is ready for a breakout game. So what better time than against this weak Jets rush defense. Keep in mind, however that LT and Martin have both faced tough defenses against the rush this year, but LT definitely holds the advantage. While Martin had a huge game against BUF (148 yds and 1 td), it is sad to say that (aside from maybe HOU) BUF has the worst defense in the league. Against the other defenses (KC, MIA, JAX, BAL, TB, and ATL), he has never gone over 75 yards and is averaging 2.6 yards per carry. (horrible). As for LT, a whole different story. He had 192 yards vs the Giants, 134 yds vs NE, and 140 yds vs OAK (which are all tougher run defenses than BUF). The other defenses he played were also just as tough (DAL, DEN, PIT, PHI, and KC). And there's no need to compare the 10 rushing tds LT has compared to the 4 Martin has. Defensively, the Jets have face Priest Holmes, Larry Johnson, Ronnie Brown, Fred Taylor, Jamal Lewis, Michael Pitmann, Willis McGahee, and Warrick Dunn. Not the best backs in the league, but a nice rough cast. From this group, Larry Johnson, Willis McGahee and Warrick Dunn all had big games over 100 yards, and Fred Taylor had 98. As for the SD defense, they have faced Julius Jones, Mike Anderson, Tiki Barber, Corey Dillon, Jerome Bettis, Willie Parker, Brian Westbrook, Larry Johnson, and Priest Holmes. And though these backs have been producing better this year than the ones the Jets have faced, NOT A SINGLE ONE has run for more than 100 yards on them. In fact, the Holmes/Johnson duo ran for a combined 195 yards on the Jets, but only combined for 93 total against the Chargers. So don't expect much from Martin this week. He has done less against weaker defenses than the Chargers have. Aside from that, SD is looking for revenge against the Jets since they were the ones that knocked them out of the playoffs last year. SD won last week and brought themselves back to 4-4 on the season. NO way do they let themselves slip back to a losing record after playing all the tough teams they have. They want to enter their bye week next week with a winning note and a 5-4 record to use the break as a recuperation period and get them selves back on track. The Chargers are 8-2 ATS off a home win the last three seasons and 9-1 after 3 or more consecutive wins ATS the last 3 seasons as well. The Super Chargers will be focused for this one.
NYG - 9 1/5
The Niners are in big trouble here. I know it feels ugly to lay money on a heavy road chalk, but lets face it, this is not that high of a risk. Eli Manning is a smart qb that can actually read the defenses well just like his brother does. And this Niner defense is not a thick book to read. The Giants offense is the highest scoring in the league and are facing a team that is just horrible in the league offensively and defensively. The Giants defense stepped it up a big notch last week and I am sure they will continue with confidence this week. They are 4-0 ATS this year against conference opponents. That is a trend I expect will continue. Peyton will probably give a little brotherly advice to Eli on how to just kill the Niners since he's done it before this year. Giants will make a statement here that they are a strong team looking for the playoffs and will need to keep in stride with their division rivals. This game may go over the total as the Giants will probably score another 30 something points here. They have done it against stronger defenses, why not against the worst.
CHI - 2 1/2
This game features a New Orleans offense and Defense that is nowhere to be found on the radar. And though the Bears passing isnt that great, it is more than efficent to win games. Orton threw 5 int's in one bad game vs the Bengals. In the other 6 games, he has thrown 6 tds and 2 int's. With the running game they have, this is more than proficient to beat a team like NO, who has lost 4 in a row. I picked Miami over them last week and I'm taking the Bears over them this week. The Bears defense is by far one of the best. They gave up their first rushing td of the year last week and they are playing a team that lost McAllister and are alternating Antwain Smith and Aaron Stecker. Miami shut them down and so will CHI. They are doing everything they have to do to win their division. Definitely take Da Bears.
TB +1
It seems these two teams match up well. TB, however is coming off a loss to the Niners and the Panthers are coming off a blowout win over the Vikings. Cadillac Williams was pretty much held in check last week, but Chris Simms still had a decent passing day. How they ended up losing SU is beyond me, but that was more than plenty to get Chucky's blood boiling. The Bucs are 2-0 ATS off a road loss this year and the Panthers are 1-2 as a road favorite this year. The line movement has been favoring Carolina. Expect Chucky to utilize the Cadillac this week and open up an efficient passing game. The Bucs get back on track at home this week.
MIN +2
Detroit is not a great passing or rushing offense, but will be facing a MIN defense this is just the same. DET does have a good passing defense, but this week, they will be facing Brad Johnson, and not Culpepper. This is going to be a plus this week for the Vikings. Johnson is a very capable quarterback who has been successful in the past (won a Super Bowl), and DET is not going to be able to use the same (contain Culpepper) philosophy that they would have expected. Brad Johnson will be able to stay in the pocket and get full use of his talented receivers. This will be a close game, but I will take the Vikes as the home dog.
MIA +2 1/2
This is going to be an ugly game. Michael Vick currently has a low 63.0 quarterback rating. He has thrown four interceptions and just one touchdown in the last two games, but has had extra time to get ready for this contest since the Falcons are coming off their bye. Coach Saban is now using the 1-2 combination of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, who pounded the Saints in the running game. I know, and who the hell are the Saints? Right? Brown carried 23 times for 106 yards and Williams had his best game of the season, gaining 82 yards on 17 attempts against the homeless team of the NFL. The Falcons have the best running game in the league which is why I will be expecting MIA to step up to the plate here and slow it down. They will be stacking 8 in the box and closing all rushing gaps. Forcing Vick to become a passer is going to go to their advantage. They are the home team here and they need this win to prove to themselves they can handle the big boys. MIA is 2-0 this year as a home dog of 7 pts or less and ATL is below average on grass field. Take the aquatic mammals at home.
SEA -4
I am going to take this game for the same reason I am taking SD this week. SEA is just the better team. They have the best offense in the league and will be facing a defense that is below average. Even though this has revenge written on it for ARI, they are not good enough to keep up with the hawks. If there were more points on the line, I would consider it, but like the SD game, this is within 1 td and SEA is going to take care of business after the bye. In the last 2 meetings ( Sept 25th last year and earlier this year ), Shaun Alexander has rushed for 294 yards and 7 tds combined (140yds, 4tds last year and 154yds, 3tds this year). The Seahawks still do not have Darryl Jackson, but they will be welcoming Bobby Engram back this week. ARI will be going back to starting Kurt Warner again. This guy had 696 yards, 1 td, and 2 ints in 3 starts as a Cardinal. Throw in the fact that Anquan Boldin may not play due to a bruised bone in his right knee, and this spells catastrophe for the Cards. Kurt Warner is a qb that just holds the ball too long resulting in more sacks. So far the Seahawks are 2-0 against division opponents this year. Take the Ocean Birds here.
DET/MIN OVER 37 1/2
ATL/MIA UNDER 40
PIT/GB UNDER 39
The line opened at -5 1/2 and has gone up to -7 in some places. And though the Jets are off a bye, I expect the Chargers to pull through here. They are the better team offensively and defensively. The Chargers have an above average rushing and passing attack and they will be facing a way below average defense against the rush. This is where LT comes in. He has been almost invisible the last two games rushing for 76 yards and no tds combined, although he did pass for one, and is ready for a breakout game. So what better time than against this weak Jets rush defense. Keep in mind, however that LT and Martin have both faced tough defenses against the rush this year, but LT definitely holds the advantage. While Martin had a huge game against BUF (148 yds and 1 td), it is sad to say that (aside from maybe HOU) BUF has the worst defense in the league. Against the other defenses (KC, MIA, JAX, BAL, TB, and ATL), he has never gone over 75 yards and is averaging 2.6 yards per carry. (horrible). As for LT, a whole different story. He had 192 yards vs the Giants, 134 yds vs NE, and 140 yds vs OAK (which are all tougher run defenses than BUF). The other defenses he played were also just as tough (DAL, DEN, PIT, PHI, and KC). And there's no need to compare the 10 rushing tds LT has compared to the 4 Martin has. Defensively, the Jets have face Priest Holmes, Larry Johnson, Ronnie Brown, Fred Taylor, Jamal Lewis, Michael Pitmann, Willis McGahee, and Warrick Dunn. Not the best backs in the league, but a nice rough cast. From this group, Larry Johnson, Willis McGahee and Warrick Dunn all had big games over 100 yards, and Fred Taylor had 98. As for the SD defense, they have faced Julius Jones, Mike Anderson, Tiki Barber, Corey Dillon, Jerome Bettis, Willie Parker, Brian Westbrook, Larry Johnson, and Priest Holmes. And though these backs have been producing better this year than the ones the Jets have faced, NOT A SINGLE ONE has run for more than 100 yards on them. In fact, the Holmes/Johnson duo ran for a combined 195 yards on the Jets, but only combined for 93 total against the Chargers. So don't expect much from Martin this week. He has done less against weaker defenses than the Chargers have. Aside from that, SD is looking for revenge against the Jets since they were the ones that knocked them out of the playoffs last year. SD won last week and brought themselves back to 4-4 on the season. NO way do they let themselves slip back to a losing record after playing all the tough teams they have. They want to enter their bye week next week with a winning note and a 5-4 record to use the break as a recuperation period and get them selves back on track. The Chargers are 8-2 ATS off a home win the last three seasons and 9-1 after 3 or more consecutive wins ATS the last 3 seasons as well. The Super Chargers will be focused for this one.
NYG - 9 1/5
The Niners are in big trouble here. I know it feels ugly to lay money on a heavy road chalk, but lets face it, this is not that high of a risk. Eli Manning is a smart qb that can actually read the defenses well just like his brother does. And this Niner defense is not a thick book to read. The Giants offense is the highest scoring in the league and are facing a team that is just horrible in the league offensively and defensively. The Giants defense stepped it up a big notch last week and I am sure they will continue with confidence this week. They are 4-0 ATS this year against conference opponents. That is a trend I expect will continue. Peyton will probably give a little brotherly advice to Eli on how to just kill the Niners since he's done it before this year. Giants will make a statement here that they are a strong team looking for the playoffs and will need to keep in stride with their division rivals. This game may go over the total as the Giants will probably score another 30 something points here. They have done it against stronger defenses, why not against the worst.
CHI - 2 1/2
This game features a New Orleans offense and Defense that is nowhere to be found on the radar. And though the Bears passing isnt that great, it is more than efficent to win games. Orton threw 5 int's in one bad game vs the Bengals. In the other 6 games, he has thrown 6 tds and 2 int's. With the running game they have, this is more than proficient to beat a team like NO, who has lost 4 in a row. I picked Miami over them last week and I'm taking the Bears over them this week. The Bears defense is by far one of the best. They gave up their first rushing td of the year last week and they are playing a team that lost McAllister and are alternating Antwain Smith and Aaron Stecker. Miami shut them down and so will CHI. They are doing everything they have to do to win their division. Definitely take Da Bears.
TB +1
It seems these two teams match up well. TB, however is coming off a loss to the Niners and the Panthers are coming off a blowout win over the Vikings. Cadillac Williams was pretty much held in check last week, but Chris Simms still had a decent passing day. How they ended up losing SU is beyond me, but that was more than plenty to get Chucky's blood boiling. The Bucs are 2-0 ATS off a road loss this year and the Panthers are 1-2 as a road favorite this year. The line movement has been favoring Carolina. Expect Chucky to utilize the Cadillac this week and open up an efficient passing game. The Bucs get back on track at home this week.
MIN +2
Detroit is not a great passing or rushing offense, but will be facing a MIN defense this is just the same. DET does have a good passing defense, but this week, they will be facing Brad Johnson, and not Culpepper. This is going to be a plus this week for the Vikings. Johnson is a very capable quarterback who has been successful in the past (won a Super Bowl), and DET is not going to be able to use the same (contain Culpepper) philosophy that they would have expected. Brad Johnson will be able to stay in the pocket and get full use of his talented receivers. This will be a close game, but I will take the Vikes as the home dog.
MIA +2 1/2
This is going to be an ugly game. Michael Vick currently has a low 63.0 quarterback rating. He has thrown four interceptions and just one touchdown in the last two games, but has had extra time to get ready for this contest since the Falcons are coming off their bye. Coach Saban is now using the 1-2 combination of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, who pounded the Saints in the running game. I know, and who the hell are the Saints? Right? Brown carried 23 times for 106 yards and Williams had his best game of the season, gaining 82 yards on 17 attempts against the homeless team of the NFL. The Falcons have the best running game in the league which is why I will be expecting MIA to step up to the plate here and slow it down. They will be stacking 8 in the box and closing all rushing gaps. Forcing Vick to become a passer is going to go to their advantage. They are the home team here and they need this win to prove to themselves they can handle the big boys. MIA is 2-0 this year as a home dog of 7 pts or less and ATL is below average on grass field. Take the aquatic mammals at home.
SEA -4
I am going to take this game for the same reason I am taking SD this week. SEA is just the better team. They have the best offense in the league and will be facing a defense that is below average. Even though this has revenge written on it for ARI, they are not good enough to keep up with the hawks. If there were more points on the line, I would consider it, but like the SD game, this is within 1 td and SEA is going to take care of business after the bye. In the last 2 meetings ( Sept 25th last year and earlier this year ), Shaun Alexander has rushed for 294 yards and 7 tds combined (140yds, 4tds last year and 154yds, 3tds this year). The Seahawks still do not have Darryl Jackson, but they will be welcoming Bobby Engram back this week. ARI will be going back to starting Kurt Warner again. This guy had 696 yards, 1 td, and 2 ints in 3 starts as a Cardinal. Throw in the fact that Anquan Boldin may not play due to a bruised bone in his right knee, and this spells catastrophe for the Cards. Kurt Warner is a qb that just holds the ball too long resulting in more sacks. So far the Seahawks are 2-0 against division opponents this year. Take the Ocean Birds here.
DET/MIN OVER 37 1/2
ATL/MIA UNDER 40
PIT/GB UNDER 39