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YTD 54-46-4
DEN -12 1/2
The Denver Broncos will be back home this week facing a Jets team that played well defensively against the Carolina Panthers last week, but still got blown out. I have the DEN offense ranked 5th in passing facing a Jets defense ranked 6th against the pass. This should be a good matchup here. The Jets were able to stop Steve Smith with Ty Law last week and should do decent against the Denver passing game this week. The reason I say decent is because last week, Carolina did not have a great running game to help open up the pass and couldn't take advantage of the Jets 26th ranked defense against the run. This week will be different. The Jets weak run defense will struggle trying to slow down Mike Anderson and Tatum Bell. The Broncos are ranked 4th in the running dept., but they will probably look better than that against this rushing defense. LT had 4 tds and over 100 yds on them 2 weeks ago. I am expecting the Denver backs to go over 100 with 2-3 tds as well. On the other side of the ball, the Jets offense is ranked 31st at passing and 23rd at rushing. Nothing of their offense will be much of a match for the Denver defense ranked 9th against the pass and 11th against the rush. Denver has a tendency to give up big leads in the 4th quarter which brings up the possibility of a backdoor cover, but I do not see that happening here. They also have problems covering when they are heavy chalks, but I will be expecting them to overcome this as well. Week 8 was the last game Denver was at home and they will be glad to be there this week. The Jets are 0-5 this year ATS as road underdogs, and the Broncos are 3-1 ATS this year as home favorites. Take the Broncos here.
KC -6 1/2
The Chiefs are coming off a loss at BUF last week and need to win this week. The Texans covered against Indy last week, but the Chiefs are not favored by 18 points. One td more than HOU and you get the cover. The Texans are ranked poorly at rushing and passing on defense which will allow the Chiefs to move the ball and get their points. The passing game for the Texans is not good. The way they contend is by running the ball, but unfortunately for them, that is the specialty of the Chiefs defense.. stopping the run. Houston is going to run into alot of problems here. The Chiefs are 2-1 ATS off a road loss this year while the Texans are 0-2 ATS as a home dog this year.
ARI/STL OVER 48
I don't normally jump on the totals right away, but this one definitely caught my eye. Both offenses are above average and both defenses are way below average. Throw in all the injuries in Zona's defense and the returners on STL offense, and this will definitely be a high scoring game.
IND/CIN UNDER 48
This is another total I am on this week. Both offenses are top 5, but unlike the STL game, these teams have top 5 defenses as well. Most of the points in this game will probably come in the second half when the defenses are getting figured out, so it may be wise to see what the under looks like for the first half as the defenses will probably come out strong from the gates.
SEA - 11 1/2
Another game where I am taking the heavy chalk. Shaun Alexander has not had problems finding the end zone in two meetings against the Niners last year. He is eligible to become an unrestricted free agent in March and is playing his ass off this year. He leads the NFL in rushing (1,114 yards) and touchdowns (17). He rushed for five touchdowns in two games last season against the Niners as the Seahawks scored 76 points in winning both meetings. In the first meeting last September 26, Alexander rushed for three touchdowns and they won 34-0. It was the first time the Niners were shut out since 1977. Then he had 26 carries for 160 yards and two touchdowns in the second meeting to complete the season sweep with a 42-27 victory on November 7. Last week, Alexander rushed for 165 yards and three touchdowns in a 31-16 victory over the St. Louis Rams. The win gave Seattle a three-game lead over St. Louis in the division. The 49ers have been abysmal offensively, ranking last in the league at 199.4 yards per game. They are down to fourth-string quarterback Cody Pickett, who was playing on special teams earlier this season, and have gone three straight games without an offensive touchdown. Their last offensive TD came in the fourth quarter against Washington in week 7 when rookie Frank Gore scored on a 72-yard run. With Pickett unable to move the offense, the Niners are turning to Ken Dorsey, who will make his second start of the season. Dorsey went 7-of-18 for 40 yards against Tampa Bay in week 8 before leaving in the fourth quarter with a sprained ankle. Joe Nedney has kicked 10 field goals in the last three games for SF. Pickett completed just 1-of-13 passes for 28 yards and an interception in last week's 17-9 loss at Chicago, but the wind, as we all know, was really screwing everything up there. The Hawks are very strong offensively at running and passing where the SF defense is horrible in both. The other side of the ball is the same in favoring the Seahawks. SF is horrible at running and passing. And regardless if Dorsey starts, SEA defense will be too much for them here.
CIN + 6
Last year, Chad Johnson predicted they would upset the Kansas City Chiefs, who entered Paul Brown Stadium with a 9-0 record. The Chiefs left with their first loss of the season. On Sunday, the Indianapolis Colts are the ones coming in with a 9-0 record, But this time, the Pro Bowl receiver isn't talking. "Coach (Marvin Lewis) had a talk to me about that," Johnson said. "I'm going to listen to my coach and just say that Sunday's game should be a great game." On the other side, Colts defensive tackle Corey Simon said, "Talk to us about 16-0 when we get to 15-0, the talent in this league won't allow us to look any farther ahead." So it is plain to see both teams are focused on this game. But I am just throwing all this info in as it has nothing to do with the outcome of this game. Although Manning is in his eighth year and Palmer is in his second season, the two share an NFL mark. Palmer's nine straight games with a passer rating of more than 100, dating to last season, tied the record set by Manning in 2004. Manning has passed for 2,169 yards and 17 touchdowns for a quarterback rating of 104.6. Palmer has passed for 2,285 yards and 18 touchdowns for a rating of 106.3 And although these teams are loaded on their offenses with other player besides their qbs like Edge, Rudi, Marvin, Brandon, Reggie, Chad, and T.J, this game will come down to defense. Both defenses are good. CIN defense is better at stopping the pass (lead the league with 20 ints and 29 takeaways) while IND is better at stopping the run. CIN Cornerback Deltha O'Neal tops the league with six interceptions and Colts linebacker Cato June is tied for second with five. It will be interesting to see how June matches up against Harrison. I will take the home team here
NO + 11
The Patriots have been stuggling all year due to injuries. They have placed starting center Dan Koppen and starting cornerback Randall Gay on injured reserve this week ending their seasons. Over the previous two weeks, the Patriots placed two other cornerbacks (Tyrone Poole and Duane Starks) on IR. The injury to Koppen is a major blow for the offensive line, which has been missing starting left tackle Matt Light since a September 25 win at Pittsburgh due to a broken leg. Russ Hochstein, the top backup guard, will slide over to center. Gay had moved in as the starter at right cornerback due to injuries to Poole and Starks, but suffered a knee injury in the loss at Miami. Rookie Ellis Hobbs (a third-round pick out of Iowa State) replaced Gay last week and will step in as the starter. I currently have the Patriot offense ranked 3rd at passing and 14th at running. This would produce plenty of points against a NO defense that I have 15th against the pass and 28th against the run. They should not have much problems moving the ball. However, the NO offense is ranked 24th at passing and 13th at running. This will be good enough to move the ball on the crippled Patriot defense who I have ranked 31st against the pass and 17th against the run. There will be lots of points in this game that would make a strong lean to the OVER, but the Saints should not have much problems covering this spread here... even on ther road.
DEN -12 1/2
The Denver Broncos will be back home this week facing a Jets team that played well defensively against the Carolina Panthers last week, but still got blown out. I have the DEN offense ranked 5th in passing facing a Jets defense ranked 6th against the pass. This should be a good matchup here. The Jets were able to stop Steve Smith with Ty Law last week and should do decent against the Denver passing game this week. The reason I say decent is because last week, Carolina did not have a great running game to help open up the pass and couldn't take advantage of the Jets 26th ranked defense against the run. This week will be different. The Jets weak run defense will struggle trying to slow down Mike Anderson and Tatum Bell. The Broncos are ranked 4th in the running dept., but they will probably look better than that against this rushing defense. LT had 4 tds and over 100 yds on them 2 weeks ago. I am expecting the Denver backs to go over 100 with 2-3 tds as well. On the other side of the ball, the Jets offense is ranked 31st at passing and 23rd at rushing. Nothing of their offense will be much of a match for the Denver defense ranked 9th against the pass and 11th against the rush. Denver has a tendency to give up big leads in the 4th quarter which brings up the possibility of a backdoor cover, but I do not see that happening here. They also have problems covering when they are heavy chalks, but I will be expecting them to overcome this as well. Week 8 was the last game Denver was at home and they will be glad to be there this week. The Jets are 0-5 this year ATS as road underdogs, and the Broncos are 3-1 ATS this year as home favorites. Take the Broncos here.
KC -6 1/2
The Chiefs are coming off a loss at BUF last week and need to win this week. The Texans covered against Indy last week, but the Chiefs are not favored by 18 points. One td more than HOU and you get the cover. The Texans are ranked poorly at rushing and passing on defense which will allow the Chiefs to move the ball and get their points. The passing game for the Texans is not good. The way they contend is by running the ball, but unfortunately for them, that is the specialty of the Chiefs defense.. stopping the run. Houston is going to run into alot of problems here. The Chiefs are 2-1 ATS off a road loss this year while the Texans are 0-2 ATS as a home dog this year.
ARI/STL OVER 48
I don't normally jump on the totals right away, but this one definitely caught my eye. Both offenses are above average and both defenses are way below average. Throw in all the injuries in Zona's defense and the returners on STL offense, and this will definitely be a high scoring game.
IND/CIN UNDER 48
This is another total I am on this week. Both offenses are top 5, but unlike the STL game, these teams have top 5 defenses as well. Most of the points in this game will probably come in the second half when the defenses are getting figured out, so it may be wise to see what the under looks like for the first half as the defenses will probably come out strong from the gates.
SEA - 11 1/2
Another game where I am taking the heavy chalk. Shaun Alexander has not had problems finding the end zone in two meetings against the Niners last year. He is eligible to become an unrestricted free agent in March and is playing his ass off this year. He leads the NFL in rushing (1,114 yards) and touchdowns (17). He rushed for five touchdowns in two games last season against the Niners as the Seahawks scored 76 points in winning both meetings. In the first meeting last September 26, Alexander rushed for three touchdowns and they won 34-0. It was the first time the Niners were shut out since 1977. Then he had 26 carries for 160 yards and two touchdowns in the second meeting to complete the season sweep with a 42-27 victory on November 7. Last week, Alexander rushed for 165 yards and three touchdowns in a 31-16 victory over the St. Louis Rams. The win gave Seattle a three-game lead over St. Louis in the division. The 49ers have been abysmal offensively, ranking last in the league at 199.4 yards per game. They are down to fourth-string quarterback Cody Pickett, who was playing on special teams earlier this season, and have gone three straight games without an offensive touchdown. Their last offensive TD came in the fourth quarter against Washington in week 7 when rookie Frank Gore scored on a 72-yard run. With Pickett unable to move the offense, the Niners are turning to Ken Dorsey, who will make his second start of the season. Dorsey went 7-of-18 for 40 yards against Tampa Bay in week 8 before leaving in the fourth quarter with a sprained ankle. Joe Nedney has kicked 10 field goals in the last three games for SF. Pickett completed just 1-of-13 passes for 28 yards and an interception in last week's 17-9 loss at Chicago, but the wind, as we all know, was really screwing everything up there. The Hawks are very strong offensively at running and passing where the SF defense is horrible in both. The other side of the ball is the same in favoring the Seahawks. SF is horrible at running and passing. And regardless if Dorsey starts, SEA defense will be too much for them here.
CIN + 6
Last year, Chad Johnson predicted they would upset the Kansas City Chiefs, who entered Paul Brown Stadium with a 9-0 record. The Chiefs left with their first loss of the season. On Sunday, the Indianapolis Colts are the ones coming in with a 9-0 record, But this time, the Pro Bowl receiver isn't talking. "Coach (Marvin Lewis) had a talk to me about that," Johnson said. "I'm going to listen to my coach and just say that Sunday's game should be a great game." On the other side, Colts defensive tackle Corey Simon said, "Talk to us about 16-0 when we get to 15-0, the talent in this league won't allow us to look any farther ahead." So it is plain to see both teams are focused on this game. But I am just throwing all this info in as it has nothing to do with the outcome of this game. Although Manning is in his eighth year and Palmer is in his second season, the two share an NFL mark. Palmer's nine straight games with a passer rating of more than 100, dating to last season, tied the record set by Manning in 2004. Manning has passed for 2,169 yards and 17 touchdowns for a quarterback rating of 104.6. Palmer has passed for 2,285 yards and 18 touchdowns for a rating of 106.3 And although these teams are loaded on their offenses with other player besides their qbs like Edge, Rudi, Marvin, Brandon, Reggie, Chad, and T.J, this game will come down to defense. Both defenses are good. CIN defense is better at stopping the pass (lead the league with 20 ints and 29 takeaways) while IND is better at stopping the run. CIN Cornerback Deltha O'Neal tops the league with six interceptions and Colts linebacker Cato June is tied for second with five. It will be interesting to see how June matches up against Harrison. I will take the home team here
NO + 11
The Patriots have been stuggling all year due to injuries. They have placed starting center Dan Koppen and starting cornerback Randall Gay on injured reserve this week ending their seasons. Over the previous two weeks, the Patriots placed two other cornerbacks (Tyrone Poole and Duane Starks) on IR. The injury to Koppen is a major blow for the offensive line, which has been missing starting left tackle Matt Light since a September 25 win at Pittsburgh due to a broken leg. Russ Hochstein, the top backup guard, will slide over to center. Gay had moved in as the starter at right cornerback due to injuries to Poole and Starks, but suffered a knee injury in the loss at Miami. Rookie Ellis Hobbs (a third-round pick out of Iowa State) replaced Gay last week and will step in as the starter. I currently have the Patriot offense ranked 3rd at passing and 14th at running. This would produce plenty of points against a NO defense that I have 15th against the pass and 28th against the run. They should not have much problems moving the ball. However, the NO offense is ranked 24th at passing and 13th at running. This will be good enough to move the ball on the crippled Patriot defense who I have ranked 31st against the pass and 17th against the run. There will be lots of points in this game that would make a strong lean to the OVER, but the Saints should not have much problems covering this spread here... even on ther road.