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Here is how I handicap the game tonite. It is a no play for me. I think it comes down to a 7 pt win for USC. I will put a couple hundy on the over.
1. Stat Numbers .
Overall : Same Offensive Number. But Texas allow 7 less points. = 3.5 point Texas edge
Home/Away : USC scores 10 more and allows 3 more points = 3.5 point USC edge.
USC allow more points than Texas may not mean USC has weaker defense.
USC faced Pac10 passing oriented opponents that can score lots more points than Big 12 offense. Much stronger QB that USC has met , such as Quinn , Keller, Olson, Oregon/Cal/Fresno QBs. USC has slightly better rushing defense stats than texas. Likewise, this may come from. USC opponents don’t run much. Also Texas opponents run much more.
So starting advantage point from offense / defense should be zero.
This is really a good match up. USC might have slight favorite from home field. Not only home crowd, but also having a month to prepare at home with familiar facility. USC kids have been in California since October. Texas plays at Rose last year but USC also plays there every other year against UCLA/Rose Bowl.
I will start at USC -2 pt from home field.
2. Offense
USC has 70 more yards than texas.
Multi dimensional: Complete Threat at 2 RB , 2 WR, TE
We all know Young is good. He already beat Matt in Heisman vote. But he is the only threat in Texas which mean easier to contain. May not be able to do so but easier to do with 5 weeks to prepare to stop one guy. Easier than to stop Jarred and White and Smith and Bush and Byrd and…… Matt is smart enough to take advantage of the blitz or other imbalance defense.
Can you name another offensive threat other than vince? Heard any from media? No. That’s how important of Vince in this game to be perfect. Young has to take over the game to win. But when Matt is off, he just hand the ball to White or Bush.
USC -2 more for Multi-dimensional offense.
USC -4
2.1 QB:
Aside from Young’s rushing quality (mentioned later in Rushing),
Young is better in Y/A almost a yard / attempt and QB rating. (10 more)
Leinart has 72 more Completion, 600 more Yards, and 3 less intercept
Intangibles. Matt has big game experience. 8TD 0 INT in bowl games (He won all bowl games and rivalry games ND/ UCLA in all his career). Everyone knows his UCLA performance is the worst, the ugliest. Really? But USC won by 47 pts. He has 3TD 233 Yards in 3rd Qt. Texas will wish he will have worse than that UCLA game.
When Young get bad like in A&M game. He has 1 TD 1 INT 162 Yards 3 sacks. That’s the difference. USC has other players to take over game when quarterback is down. Texas has to rely on Young and him only to have big game.
Young has Run&Pass quality that is hard to defend. Already won 2 QB awards over Leinart.
Edge : Tie.
2.2 Rushing:
Bush and White combines 236 yards per games. 36 TD = 3 TD / games.
4 Texas backs combines less than 190 yards per games 39 TD. But only 2 backs can play at a time. Considering Young a RB , Texas get 140 yards / games from him and J.Charles. 20 TD.
USC has rushing edge at least 1 TD / 50 more yards. (one of RB is also a big play man name “Bush”)
USC edge -7
2.3 Receiving:
Jarred, Smith Avg. 15 Yards / Catch total 20 TD It takes 5 Texas WR to get 20 TD. Only No.2 WR Smith already match No.1 Texas WR in YPG 77 and TD 5. but has 200 more yards. It doesn’t hurt to have WR(Jarred) share room with QB(Matt). USC No.1 WR blows everyone else away with. 1153 yards. 96 YPG , 15 TD. It also good to have No.3 WR name “Bush”
USC has passing edge around 30-40 yards / almost a touchdown more.
USC Edge -4.5
2.4 Return:
USC won’t have the edge although it has Bush (and Reed/Bing) to return.
Stats shows that texas Ross/Taylor has almost double yards/return. Texas may choose to kick away from Bush anyway. Texas is best in Punt/Kick Return while SC special team coverage is very loose. Bad combination.
Texas -4.5
Offense Conclusion: USC Offense edge -7 points.
Now USC edge -11 points.
3. Coach
Mac Brown is known as “not so good in big game” but he already won Ohio State and Oklahoma this year and Michigan last year.
Pete won big games 2 national titles, bowl games, rivalry games UCLA , Notre dame, etc… for like 3 years. He knows how to prepare in big games. He will keep players loose but focus. Colin Cowherd compare SC national title experience to dating. Texas already won rose bowl but this year will be like dating supermodel for the first time. It won’t be easy in the first time. SC has been there, done that, twice.
Give pete -3 for USC.
USC now -14
4. Turnover margin
USC is no. 1 in the nation with +22 (Texas +6) That’s +1.5 per game more than texas. USC should turn that to a field goal for each. That is good combination when Young has 10 picks this season.
Likely to have at least 1 more.
Turnover USC -4.5
USC -18.5
It would be likely that Texas team is so sick about the Reggie Bush hype on the media and they prepare to stop that guy. Or focus on 15 TD guy, Jarred. Don’t be surprise that the star in this game would be No.2 WR Smith. (2-3 TD last year against Oklahoma) And Lendale White who will have more TD than Reggie. I bet Pete already plan for that.
5. Defense
5.1 Lineman
Texas dominates both O and D line. Matt may not have time as he usually has and Bush may not have that big hole to run. This will pound USC throughout the game in every play. Big problem if USC cannot adjust to what it hasn’t seen all year. But USC line is not that bad. If so, Bush and White won’t have this monster year. (White set school records for 21 TD) Leinart cannot has better stats this year unless he has time to throw.
USC did stop the big Cal O line and held them to 10pts. USC held Olson and UCLA 40 pts per game to 19. SC young defense are getting healthier and older at this time of the season.
Texas edge -7
Now USC -11.5
5.2 Secondary.
Pete says texas secondary are NFL players. Matt says best defense top-bottom. If Texas corner can shut down USC WR, they can stay focus on containing Bush/White better. USC obvious weakness is at corners, they allow big play all year there by inexperience players.
Texas edge -3
Now USC -8.5
6. Kicking Field Goal.
USC kicker has few chances to kick. USC always go for it in the fourth.
This game will be different. USC will be stopped and have to kick in the 30-40’s range.
Texas has the edge here -1.5
Now USC -7
7. Intagible.
Texas got no respect from media and will pump them up and show up big in the game. Yes , may be but slow down. Texas may show up big in the first Quarter, make big play. But once the game goes on. The mismatch of skills and talent will show and even out the pumped up Texas. Everybody got good game against USC in the first half because the marked their game against SC in the calendar for year and well prepared for the game. But USC shows how they response to all those pumped up teams with 34 straight wins. The over-excited players to go after the over hyped Bush or Leinart will hurt Texas by the imbalanced defense against balanced offense.
SC will pumped up because Young guaranteed a win after he lost heisman race. SC will talk back on the field like they did last year against Oklahoma.
Nobody will have edge in this aspect.
Conclusion :
USC will win the game with home field, home crowd, better coaching match up, Multi-dimensional offense and turn over margin.
As my number came out to USC -7 . It’s a coin flip for USC to cover the spread. The only chance for USC to cover is Intangibles such as big play from Bush or Young/Texas got pressured from big game.
Good luck and enjoy the game.
1. Stat Numbers .
Overall : Same Offensive Number. But Texas allow 7 less points. = 3.5 point Texas edge
Home/Away : USC scores 10 more and allows 3 more points = 3.5 point USC edge.
USC allow more points than Texas may not mean USC has weaker defense.
USC faced Pac10 passing oriented opponents that can score lots more points than Big 12 offense. Much stronger QB that USC has met , such as Quinn , Keller, Olson, Oregon/Cal/Fresno QBs. USC has slightly better rushing defense stats than texas. Likewise, this may come from. USC opponents don’t run much. Also Texas opponents run much more.
So starting advantage point from offense / defense should be zero.
This is really a good match up. USC might have slight favorite from home field. Not only home crowd, but also having a month to prepare at home with familiar facility. USC kids have been in California since October. Texas plays at Rose last year but USC also plays there every other year against UCLA/Rose Bowl.
I will start at USC -2 pt from home field.
2. Offense
USC has 70 more yards than texas.
Multi dimensional: Complete Threat at 2 RB , 2 WR, TE
We all know Young is good. He already beat Matt in Heisman vote. But he is the only threat in Texas which mean easier to contain. May not be able to do so but easier to do with 5 weeks to prepare to stop one guy. Easier than to stop Jarred and White and Smith and Bush and Byrd and…… Matt is smart enough to take advantage of the blitz or other imbalance defense.
Can you name another offensive threat other than vince? Heard any from media? No. That’s how important of Vince in this game to be perfect. Young has to take over the game to win. But when Matt is off, he just hand the ball to White or Bush.
USC -2 more for Multi-dimensional offense.
USC -4
2.1 QB:
Aside from Young’s rushing quality (mentioned later in Rushing),
Young is better in Y/A almost a yard / attempt and QB rating. (10 more)
Leinart has 72 more Completion, 600 more Yards, and 3 less intercept
Intangibles. Matt has big game experience. 8TD 0 INT in bowl games (He won all bowl games and rivalry games ND/ UCLA in all his career). Everyone knows his UCLA performance is the worst, the ugliest. Really? But USC won by 47 pts. He has 3TD 233 Yards in 3rd Qt. Texas will wish he will have worse than that UCLA game.
When Young get bad like in A&M game. He has 1 TD 1 INT 162 Yards 3 sacks. That’s the difference. USC has other players to take over game when quarterback is down. Texas has to rely on Young and him only to have big game.
Young has Run&Pass quality that is hard to defend. Already won 2 QB awards over Leinart.
Edge : Tie.
2.2 Rushing:
Bush and White combines 236 yards per games. 36 TD = 3 TD / games.
4 Texas backs combines less than 190 yards per games 39 TD. But only 2 backs can play at a time. Considering Young a RB , Texas get 140 yards / games from him and J.Charles. 20 TD.
USC has rushing edge at least 1 TD / 50 more yards. (one of RB is also a big play man name “Bush”)
USC edge -7
2.3 Receiving:
Jarred, Smith Avg. 15 Yards / Catch total 20 TD It takes 5 Texas WR to get 20 TD. Only No.2 WR Smith already match No.1 Texas WR in YPG 77 and TD 5. but has 200 more yards. It doesn’t hurt to have WR(Jarred) share room with QB(Matt). USC No.1 WR blows everyone else away with. 1153 yards. 96 YPG , 15 TD. It also good to have No.3 WR name “Bush”
USC has passing edge around 30-40 yards / almost a touchdown more.
USC Edge -4.5
2.4 Return:
USC won’t have the edge although it has Bush (and Reed/Bing) to return.
Stats shows that texas Ross/Taylor has almost double yards/return. Texas may choose to kick away from Bush anyway. Texas is best in Punt/Kick Return while SC special team coverage is very loose. Bad combination.
Texas -4.5
Offense Conclusion: USC Offense edge -7 points.
Now USC edge -11 points.
3. Coach
Mac Brown is known as “not so good in big game” but he already won Ohio State and Oklahoma this year and Michigan last year.
Pete won big games 2 national titles, bowl games, rivalry games UCLA , Notre dame, etc… for like 3 years. He knows how to prepare in big games. He will keep players loose but focus. Colin Cowherd compare SC national title experience to dating. Texas already won rose bowl but this year will be like dating supermodel for the first time. It won’t be easy in the first time. SC has been there, done that, twice.
Give pete -3 for USC.
USC now -14
4. Turnover margin
USC is no. 1 in the nation with +22 (Texas +6) That’s +1.5 per game more than texas. USC should turn that to a field goal for each. That is good combination when Young has 10 picks this season.
Likely to have at least 1 more.
Turnover USC -4.5
USC -18.5
It would be likely that Texas team is so sick about the Reggie Bush hype on the media and they prepare to stop that guy. Or focus on 15 TD guy, Jarred. Don’t be surprise that the star in this game would be No.2 WR Smith. (2-3 TD last year against Oklahoma) And Lendale White who will have more TD than Reggie. I bet Pete already plan for that.
5. Defense
5.1 Lineman
Texas dominates both O and D line. Matt may not have time as he usually has and Bush may not have that big hole to run. This will pound USC throughout the game in every play. Big problem if USC cannot adjust to what it hasn’t seen all year. But USC line is not that bad. If so, Bush and White won’t have this monster year. (White set school records for 21 TD) Leinart cannot has better stats this year unless he has time to throw.
USC did stop the big Cal O line and held them to 10pts. USC held Olson and UCLA 40 pts per game to 19. SC young defense are getting healthier and older at this time of the season.
Texas edge -7
Now USC -11.5
5.2 Secondary.
Pete says texas secondary are NFL players. Matt says best defense top-bottom. If Texas corner can shut down USC WR, they can stay focus on containing Bush/White better. USC obvious weakness is at corners, they allow big play all year there by inexperience players.
Texas edge -3
Now USC -8.5
6. Kicking Field Goal.
USC kicker has few chances to kick. USC always go for it in the fourth.
This game will be different. USC will be stopped and have to kick in the 30-40’s range.
Texas has the edge here -1.5
Now USC -7
7. Intagible.
Texas got no respect from media and will pump them up and show up big in the game. Yes , may be but slow down. Texas may show up big in the first Quarter, make big play. But once the game goes on. The mismatch of skills and talent will show and even out the pumped up Texas. Everybody got good game against USC in the first half because the marked their game against SC in the calendar for year and well prepared for the game. But USC shows how they response to all those pumped up teams with 34 straight wins. The over-excited players to go after the over hyped Bush or Leinart will hurt Texas by the imbalanced defense against balanced offense.
SC will pumped up because Young guaranteed a win after he lost heisman race. SC will talk back on the field like they did last year against Oklahoma.
Nobody will have edge in this aspect.
Conclusion :
USC will win the game with home field, home crowd, better coaching match up, Multi-dimensional offense and turn over margin.
As my number came out to USC -7 . It’s a coin flip for USC to cover the spread. The only chance for USC to cover is Intangibles such as big play from Bush or Young/Texas got pressured from big game.
Good luck and enjoy the game.
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