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Skins +2 @ Bucs
Basically I think this round is extermely tough. With that said here is what I am thinking. First my concerns for this matchup are in Washington's case the health of its corners, the health of Brunnell and the amount of energy and emotion they expended coming back to win a playoff berth. From what I see this team had a tough journey unlike the Bucs. The Skins were 10-6 , 6-2 at home , 4-4 away. They were a sweet 10-2 vs the NFC but 0-4 vs the AFC losing @ Denver and KC which considering they lost at Denver due to the failure of the offense in trying to convert a 2pt conversion in the final seconds 21-19. They lost 28-21 at KC but as Bandit mentioned there was a defensive score. So 2 of the toughest venues in the league Washington held there own IMO. I dont know why but they were flat vs Oakland and lost at home 17-13 to them then choked vs teh Chargers and lost 23-17 in OT. Thats an impressive performance on both occassions by the defense especially in shutting down a potent SD offense for 3 quarters. This teamed seemed to grow as the year went on and finished with some of its better football late in the year. They had 6 losses but they were only beaten twice really at KC and @ NYG when they faced there enemy shortly after Mara died(not tomention third road game in 4 weeks). They lost by 2 @ Denver when failing to convert a 2pt conversion inside the final minute, they choked in the 4th quarter vs Oakland blowing the game losing by three, they blew a lead vs SD and missed chances to win but lost 23-17 in OT and the game at TB. Thats 4 games with 1 bounce there way they could have won.
I know Springs is OUT but as long as Rogers is healthy to play I am fine. LAst I checked Greg Williams is always dealing with injuries and somehow finds a way to make it work. Gibbs i sthe master of winning in Dec and Jan. After all he is 5-0 this year , 57-18 during is career and 16-5 in the playoffs... not so bad. IN 16 GAMES ONLY 7 OPPONENTS REACHED 20 POINTS VS THEM. Two of those occurred in the final 2 games when Wash allowed 20 to NY and @ Philly. Then 23 in OT at home to SD , 36 @ TB , 36 @ NYG , 28 @ KC , 21 @ Denver . Really the only bad efforts all year were vs TB when they had some injuries (no Sean Taylor) and @ NYG when they had some turnovers and they played NY at a very bad time.
Now at the end of the year the running game appears to be really clicking. One point to make if I recall correctly alot o Washington troubles occurred when they lost David Patten to injury eliminating a second WR threat. Also his backup Thrash went out ffor awhile but I think since he returned he at least provided another option. The Skins defense has made tremendous strides as in the first 11 games they produced 11 takeaways and 18 sacks but in the final 5 games saw that rise to 17 takeaways and 17 sacks!
These teams have met twice in the Portis ERA as Wash won its home opener last year vs TB but fell 36-35 in a sloppy game at TB. One key stat to keep in mind is TB 10-0 when scoring at least 17 points this year but as I pointed out that is not a given vs Washington.
Well lets talk TB. First I noticed two things sbout the Bucs when researching this. First there schedule was oh so soft. The second was there defense was oh so soft vs any sort of quality offense. TB was 6-3 at home defeating Buffalo 19-3 , Det 17 -13 and Miami 27-13. Probably the only one close to impressive was teh game vs Miami who wasnt playing well at the time. Then after the bye they got whipped at home vs Carolina 34-14 , beat Wsh 36-35 thank sto that late penalty which put the ball at the 1 yd line when TB elected to go for two instead, they lost to Chi 13-10 thanks to a Simms fumble on the 1yd line. Then tehy finished up with a 3 pt win vs Atlanta in OT in comeback fashion. Sorry but not impressed since they trailed till late in the game forced OT and saw Atlanta fuck up a short FG in OT. Then they defeated NO in must win game 27-13 but Simms needed a late INT overturned and they had a fumble for 6 inside the 2 minute warning. So not an impressive win. Looking at there entire season I see 1 impressive game that was winning @ Carolina 20-10. Other then that this team lost @ NY and @ SF and struggled vs many so-so teams. Would u rather have Gibbs / Greg Williams / Brunnell / Portis or Grude / Cadillac / Simms and Kifin?? So for me forcing turnovers vs bad teams like NO , Det , Buffalo doesnt do anything to impress. I see there so called 1 defense allow 35 and 34 at home to Carolina and Wash. They allowed 27 and 24 to ATlanta and 28 @ NE. How is this an elite defense? They have 131 penalities and allowed 41 sacks.
Just last week TB allowed Bouman to comlete 24 of 27 for 270+yards...how is that a good defensive performance?? There ws no garbage yards here. They also had 3 turnovers that turned into 17 of the 27 points they scored that day. They got 10 points without gaining a yard and also picked NO off on the opening drive in TB territory to only turn it around and go the distance of the field for 88 yards and take a 7-0 lead but that was a 10 point swing. My point is this is the NEw Orleans who gave up Saints they were playing at home. Imagine if Atlanat didnt hand TB two victories down the stretch!! I am not talking early season but stretch drive games. Think bout how TB is playing AFC teams such as miami and Buffalo at home early which they won but traveling to NYJ and NE and losing . Washington had to play @ Denver and KC and host SD and Oakland in midseason who you think had the tougher schedule. Skins playing Dallas , NY and Philly or TB playing Carolina , Atlanta and NO.
Not sure if I left anything out but I see it like this despite an injury or two for Washington the only negative I see is TB has home field here. I see a better QB, OL , RB , WR , TE and Coaching staff in Wash. While defensively the Bucs have better indivual players with Rice, Brooks , the CB's I dont see them as a better unit. Washington weakness IMO on the road has been allowing RB to have that 1 huge TD run against them. WIth 5 straight wins I se them as having momentum while not sure TB has momentum going into this.
My thoughts are waiting and seeing if I get +3 / +3.5 for Wash . I think I might play the Skins 1st Half and might tease Washington to +12.5 or +13 depending what I can get. Also thinking teaseing the over to 27 is worth it. Possibly tease NE, Wash and the NE under or Wash over. Not a big play for me probably the minimum 3 units.
Will post exact bet before kickoff
Basically I think this round is extermely tough. With that said here is what I am thinking. First my concerns for this matchup are in Washington's case the health of its corners, the health of Brunnell and the amount of energy and emotion they expended coming back to win a playoff berth. From what I see this team had a tough journey unlike the Bucs. The Skins were 10-6 , 6-2 at home , 4-4 away. They were a sweet 10-2 vs the NFC but 0-4 vs the AFC losing @ Denver and KC which considering they lost at Denver due to the failure of the offense in trying to convert a 2pt conversion in the final seconds 21-19. They lost 28-21 at KC but as Bandit mentioned there was a defensive score. So 2 of the toughest venues in the league Washington held there own IMO. I dont know why but they were flat vs Oakland and lost at home 17-13 to them then choked vs teh Chargers and lost 23-17 in OT. Thats an impressive performance on both occassions by the defense especially in shutting down a potent SD offense for 3 quarters. This teamed seemed to grow as the year went on and finished with some of its better football late in the year. They had 6 losses but they were only beaten twice really at KC and @ NYG when they faced there enemy shortly after Mara died(not tomention third road game in 4 weeks). They lost by 2 @ Denver when failing to convert a 2pt conversion inside the final minute, they choked in the 4th quarter vs Oakland blowing the game losing by three, they blew a lead vs SD and missed chances to win but lost 23-17 in OT and the game at TB. Thats 4 games with 1 bounce there way they could have won.
I know Springs is OUT but as long as Rogers is healthy to play I am fine. LAst I checked Greg Williams is always dealing with injuries and somehow finds a way to make it work. Gibbs i sthe master of winning in Dec and Jan. After all he is 5-0 this year , 57-18 during is career and 16-5 in the playoffs... not so bad. IN 16 GAMES ONLY 7 OPPONENTS REACHED 20 POINTS VS THEM. Two of those occurred in the final 2 games when Wash allowed 20 to NY and @ Philly. Then 23 in OT at home to SD , 36 @ TB , 36 @ NYG , 28 @ KC , 21 @ Denver . Really the only bad efforts all year were vs TB when they had some injuries (no Sean Taylor) and @ NYG when they had some turnovers and they played NY at a very bad time.
Now at the end of the year the running game appears to be really clicking. One point to make if I recall correctly alot o Washington troubles occurred when they lost David Patten to injury eliminating a second WR threat. Also his backup Thrash went out ffor awhile but I think since he returned he at least provided another option. The Skins defense has made tremendous strides as in the first 11 games they produced 11 takeaways and 18 sacks but in the final 5 games saw that rise to 17 takeaways and 17 sacks!
These teams have met twice in the Portis ERA as Wash won its home opener last year vs TB but fell 36-35 in a sloppy game at TB. One key stat to keep in mind is TB 10-0 when scoring at least 17 points this year but as I pointed out that is not a given vs Washington.
Well lets talk TB. First I noticed two things sbout the Bucs when researching this. First there schedule was oh so soft. The second was there defense was oh so soft vs any sort of quality offense. TB was 6-3 at home defeating Buffalo 19-3 , Det 17 -13 and Miami 27-13. Probably the only one close to impressive was teh game vs Miami who wasnt playing well at the time. Then after the bye they got whipped at home vs Carolina 34-14 , beat Wsh 36-35 thank sto that late penalty which put the ball at the 1 yd line when TB elected to go for two instead, they lost to Chi 13-10 thanks to a Simms fumble on the 1yd line. Then tehy finished up with a 3 pt win vs Atlanta in OT in comeback fashion. Sorry but not impressed since they trailed till late in the game forced OT and saw Atlanta fuck up a short FG in OT. Then they defeated NO in must win game 27-13 but Simms needed a late INT overturned and they had a fumble for 6 inside the 2 minute warning. So not an impressive win. Looking at there entire season I see 1 impressive game that was winning @ Carolina 20-10. Other then that this team lost @ NY and @ SF and struggled vs many so-so teams. Would u rather have Gibbs / Greg Williams / Brunnell / Portis or Grude / Cadillac / Simms and Kifin?? So for me forcing turnovers vs bad teams like NO , Det , Buffalo doesnt do anything to impress. I see there so called 1 defense allow 35 and 34 at home to Carolina and Wash. They allowed 27 and 24 to ATlanta and 28 @ NE. How is this an elite defense? They have 131 penalities and allowed 41 sacks.
Just last week TB allowed Bouman to comlete 24 of 27 for 270+yards...how is that a good defensive performance?? There ws no garbage yards here. They also had 3 turnovers that turned into 17 of the 27 points they scored that day. They got 10 points without gaining a yard and also picked NO off on the opening drive in TB territory to only turn it around and go the distance of the field for 88 yards and take a 7-0 lead but that was a 10 point swing. My point is this is the NEw Orleans who gave up Saints they were playing at home. Imagine if Atlanat didnt hand TB two victories down the stretch!! I am not talking early season but stretch drive games. Think bout how TB is playing AFC teams such as miami and Buffalo at home early which they won but traveling to NYJ and NE and losing . Washington had to play @ Denver and KC and host SD and Oakland in midseason who you think had the tougher schedule. Skins playing Dallas , NY and Philly or TB playing Carolina , Atlanta and NO.
Not sure if I left anything out but I see it like this despite an injury or two for Washington the only negative I see is TB has home field here. I see a better QB, OL , RB , WR , TE and Coaching staff in Wash. While defensively the Bucs have better indivual players with Rice, Brooks , the CB's I dont see them as a better unit. Washington weakness IMO on the road has been allowing RB to have that 1 huge TD run against them. WIth 5 straight wins I se them as having momentum while not sure TB has momentum going into this.
My thoughts are waiting and seeing if I get +3 / +3.5 for Wash . I think I might play the Skins 1st Half and might tease Washington to +12.5 or +13 depending what I can get. Also thinking teaseing the over to 27 is worth it. Possibly tease NE, Wash and the NE under or Wash over. Not a big play for me probably the minimum 3 units.
Will post exact bet before kickoff
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