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Playoff experience: Pittsburgh has much more experience. Edge – Steelers.
Strength of schedule: Pittsburgh – big time. Seattle plays in the weakest division in football. And they have also had the easiest playoff road to the Super Bowl. They played two teams at home. Washington had to be running on fumes by the time they reached Seattle. They finished the season with three straight must win divisional games. The Skins were also playing their third straight on the road when the reached Seattle. The Seahawks, meanwhile had the previous week off. Carolina was playing their fourth straight road game, and had their top two running backs watching from the sidelines. I don’t think there has ever been a team that has had an easier road to the Super Bowl than the Seahawks. Meanwhile, the Steelers have had as difficult a time getting here as anyone. They qualified for the playoffs by winning their last game of the reg season. They had a first round win on the road against the division winner, who is also a big rival of theirs. Then they beat the team with the best record in the NFL, on the road, in a dome, as a 10 pt dog. Then they played against a team that just ended the New England dynasty, in a stadium that is as tough a place to play as this league has to offer. Bottom line – the Steelers are battle tested. Edge - Steelers
Coaching: I suppose you’ve got to give the nod to the Seahawks here. Holmgren has a ring, and although I’m not a big fan of his – you’ve got to give him some credit for beating the Redskins without his MVP, Alexander. I don’t think Cowher is a great coach at all, BUT what he does have on his side is a team that believes in him. And, as much as I hate to do it, I’ve got to say he has done the right things in these playoffs. I still have to give the slight coaching edge to Holmgren here. Count the rings…… Edge - Seahawks
QB: I think you can call this a wash. Both QB’s have almost identical statistics. Ben has a higher QB rating, but Hasselbeck has a higher comp % and more TD’s. Honestly, it will come down to who can limit their mistakes. Both QB’s have 10 picks, but if my money is on one of these guys in a pressure situation, I’ll take Roethlisberger. A second year QB hasn’t looked this good since Brady, and I’m still not ready to take Hasselbeck in a pressure situation. But still – this category is a wash.
Running game: Obviously you’ve got to give Seattle the edge here with Alexander. Pittsburgh does a great job of stuffing the run, and if you look at Alexander’s numbers in his postseason career, before last week he averaged under 3 yards per carry in the postseason. I think Alexander will have some success against the Steelers, but I think they will dare Hasselbeck to beat them. If Pittsburgh can do to Hasselbeck what they did to Manning in the first half of the Indy game – they will win this game easily. Unfortunately for us bettors – it won’t be that easy. I don’t think Holmgren is as stupid as Dungy, and I don’t think it will take him two and a half quarters of football to realize he needs to add a tight end to help pass protect.
If Cowher is smart, he will continue to pass first, and run second. The old motto – if it ain’t broke – don’t’ fix was taylor made for the way these guys are playing right now. If Seattle gets down early and is beaten by the pass, the running will come easy for the Steelers. Edge - Seahawks
Receiving: Pittsburgh. Here’s why. Randle El and Ward are good receivers, but nobody can cover heath Miller. The guy has had big catches in their playoff games and he has been open A LOT. Even on plays when they have thrown to other receivers, he has often been wide open. Randle El is a better number two than Jackson or Jureviscious and Ward is way better than Engram. Seattle’s receivers don’t impress me. Engram is their leading receiver with 774 yards. Jureviscious, Jackson? Ummmmmm, no. What Seattle can do is spread the ball around, but with Polamalu roaming as a safety, and this suspect crew at receivers, I don’t think the Steelers have to worry too much about stopping the pass. If they can stop Alexander, they should easily win this game. Edge - Steelers
Defenses: On paper the numbers look pretty equal, but I think we all know that Pittsburgh has played much better opposition than the Seahawks. Seattle averages giving up about 20 yards more through the air, and five yards more on the ground than the Steelers. But the hawks are doing it against a division that includes ARI, SF and STL. I don’t see Seattle’s Defense being able to stop a team like Pittsburgh – especially away from home. Seattle has played two teams away from home this year that had winning records. Jax and Was. They lost, and failed to cover as a dog in both games. They scored 14 and 17 respectively. I don’t see them doing anything different against a Pittsburgh team, who’s defense is just as solid as Seattle’s previous two opponents. Both teams do a good job against the run, and are more suspect against the pass. I don’t think SEA will be able to pressure Ben R. Denver couldn’t and Indy couldn’t. Indy’s defense reminds me of Seattle. Very quick off the ball. If the Steelers were able to give Ben time to pass against the Colts, they will be able to handle the rush of SEA.
I expect to see Hasselbeck getting the same type of pressure that Plummer saw in the Denver game. Pittsburgh’s pass rush is better than any the Seahawks have seen in a long time. Edge - Steelers
Special teams: Punting is a wash. Both teams suck. Seattle is ranked 28th in the league for net punting avg. PIT is ranked 29th. Two tenths of a yard separate them. 34.7 yards per punt vs. 34.5 ypp. Kickoff coverage is too. In fact Pit gives up an avg of 21.9 yards per ret on kicks. Seattle gives up 22. Again they are neck and neck. Wash
Field goal kicking gives PIT the edge in % with Reed hitting 82% of his kicks, but his longest is 44 yards. Brown has made only 72%, but has hit a 55 yarder. To me, this is inconclusive. Again – a wash.
Punt returning gives a slight edge with Randle El having about a two yard difference in avg return over Engram. Randle El also has two TD’s on punt returns, and Engram has zero. Edge – PIT
ON kick returns Pit avgs 3 yards more per return. Neither team has a kickoff return for a TD this year. Slight Edge – PIT.
Thoughts?
Strength of schedule: Pittsburgh – big time. Seattle plays in the weakest division in football. And they have also had the easiest playoff road to the Super Bowl. They played two teams at home. Washington had to be running on fumes by the time they reached Seattle. They finished the season with three straight must win divisional games. The Skins were also playing their third straight on the road when the reached Seattle. The Seahawks, meanwhile had the previous week off. Carolina was playing their fourth straight road game, and had their top two running backs watching from the sidelines. I don’t think there has ever been a team that has had an easier road to the Super Bowl than the Seahawks. Meanwhile, the Steelers have had as difficult a time getting here as anyone. They qualified for the playoffs by winning their last game of the reg season. They had a first round win on the road against the division winner, who is also a big rival of theirs. Then they beat the team with the best record in the NFL, on the road, in a dome, as a 10 pt dog. Then they played against a team that just ended the New England dynasty, in a stadium that is as tough a place to play as this league has to offer. Bottom line – the Steelers are battle tested. Edge - Steelers
Coaching: I suppose you’ve got to give the nod to the Seahawks here. Holmgren has a ring, and although I’m not a big fan of his – you’ve got to give him some credit for beating the Redskins without his MVP, Alexander. I don’t think Cowher is a great coach at all, BUT what he does have on his side is a team that believes in him. And, as much as I hate to do it, I’ve got to say he has done the right things in these playoffs. I still have to give the slight coaching edge to Holmgren here. Count the rings…… Edge - Seahawks
QB: I think you can call this a wash. Both QB’s have almost identical statistics. Ben has a higher QB rating, but Hasselbeck has a higher comp % and more TD’s. Honestly, it will come down to who can limit their mistakes. Both QB’s have 10 picks, but if my money is on one of these guys in a pressure situation, I’ll take Roethlisberger. A second year QB hasn’t looked this good since Brady, and I’m still not ready to take Hasselbeck in a pressure situation. But still – this category is a wash.
Running game: Obviously you’ve got to give Seattle the edge here with Alexander. Pittsburgh does a great job of stuffing the run, and if you look at Alexander’s numbers in his postseason career, before last week he averaged under 3 yards per carry in the postseason. I think Alexander will have some success against the Steelers, but I think they will dare Hasselbeck to beat them. If Pittsburgh can do to Hasselbeck what they did to Manning in the first half of the Indy game – they will win this game easily. Unfortunately for us bettors – it won’t be that easy. I don’t think Holmgren is as stupid as Dungy, and I don’t think it will take him two and a half quarters of football to realize he needs to add a tight end to help pass protect.
If Cowher is smart, he will continue to pass first, and run second. The old motto – if it ain’t broke – don’t’ fix was taylor made for the way these guys are playing right now. If Seattle gets down early and is beaten by the pass, the running will come easy for the Steelers. Edge - Seahawks
Receiving: Pittsburgh. Here’s why. Randle El and Ward are good receivers, but nobody can cover heath Miller. The guy has had big catches in their playoff games and he has been open A LOT. Even on plays when they have thrown to other receivers, he has often been wide open. Randle El is a better number two than Jackson or Jureviscious and Ward is way better than Engram. Seattle’s receivers don’t impress me. Engram is their leading receiver with 774 yards. Jureviscious, Jackson? Ummmmmm, no. What Seattle can do is spread the ball around, but with Polamalu roaming as a safety, and this suspect crew at receivers, I don’t think the Steelers have to worry too much about stopping the pass. If they can stop Alexander, they should easily win this game. Edge - Steelers
Defenses: On paper the numbers look pretty equal, but I think we all know that Pittsburgh has played much better opposition than the Seahawks. Seattle averages giving up about 20 yards more through the air, and five yards more on the ground than the Steelers. But the hawks are doing it against a division that includes ARI, SF and STL. I don’t see Seattle’s Defense being able to stop a team like Pittsburgh – especially away from home. Seattle has played two teams away from home this year that had winning records. Jax and Was. They lost, and failed to cover as a dog in both games. They scored 14 and 17 respectively. I don’t see them doing anything different against a Pittsburgh team, who’s defense is just as solid as Seattle’s previous two opponents. Both teams do a good job against the run, and are more suspect against the pass. I don’t think SEA will be able to pressure Ben R. Denver couldn’t and Indy couldn’t. Indy’s defense reminds me of Seattle. Very quick off the ball. If the Steelers were able to give Ben time to pass against the Colts, they will be able to handle the rush of SEA.
I expect to see Hasselbeck getting the same type of pressure that Plummer saw in the Denver game. Pittsburgh’s pass rush is better than any the Seahawks have seen in a long time. Edge - Steelers
Special teams: Punting is a wash. Both teams suck. Seattle is ranked 28th in the league for net punting avg. PIT is ranked 29th. Two tenths of a yard separate them. 34.7 yards per punt vs. 34.5 ypp. Kickoff coverage is too. In fact Pit gives up an avg of 21.9 yards per ret on kicks. Seattle gives up 22. Again they are neck and neck. Wash
Field goal kicking gives PIT the edge in % with Reed hitting 82% of his kicks, but his longest is 44 yards. Brown has made only 72%, but has hit a 55 yarder. To me, this is inconclusive. Again – a wash.
Punt returning gives a slight edge with Randle El having about a two yard difference in avg return over Engram. Randle El also has two TD’s on punt returns, and Engram has zero. Edge – PIT
ON kick returns Pit avgs 3 yards more per return. Neither team has a kickoff return for a TD this year. Slight Edge – PIT.
Thoughts?