Cinco De Mayo Baseball

[Tinfish]

12-7 YTD

Detroit Tigers -135

We have an inter-divisional matchup between rivals who are heading in the opposite direction. The Tigers are winners of 7 of their last 10 and a game and a half out of first place with the White Sox. While the Twinkies winners of 4 of their last 10 already 9 games behind first. The 4 most recent wins are against the likes of KC (3 times) and Seattle at home.

The Twins are having a hard time to score runs this season. The Twins only have 2 guys in their lineup that is batting over .300 for the season (Stewart and Castillo) and of their last 7 games, they only have 1 guy batting over .300 (Castillo). The Tigers, on the other hand, have 4 guys batting over .300 for the season, and 6 guys batting well over .300 in their last 7 games.

The Tigers are sending left-handed Rogers to the mound tonight where the Twinkies have been hitting an abysmal .197 against lefties. Rogers is 4-2 in the season and have been very solid and consistent for the Tigers. Other than the 5-run game in Arlington, he has given up 3 runs or less, averaging 1-2 runs per game in about 7-8 innings of work per game. The most recent outing was against these very Twinkies where blanked them over 8 innings and only allowed 2 hits. Talk about dominance. In his last 10 starts against the Twins, the Tigers are 6-4 against them. In 8 of those 10 starts, he has held them to 3 runs or less averaging about 6-7 innings. He has blanked them 4 times and 3 of those came in his last 4 starts against them. There is a very good probability that he will have a similar performance tonight against the Twins as their bats haven/t had any success against him. Only 2 bats of the Twins regular lineup bats over .300 against him; White who is struggling this season with a 0.144 batting average and 0.118, and Punto who’ve only had 3 at bats against Rogers and is batting at .233 for the season. Everyone else in the lineup is batting well under .300 against him and about half the lineup bats .200 or lower against him.

It would be nice for Rogers to blank them again and go deep into the game but even if he doesn’t go deep, the Tigers are covered as their pen have been stellar so far this season. Their pen has a season ERA of 2.96 and a WHIP of 1.06 and lately their numbers have been even better. Of the 7 guys they have in the pen, only 2 of them have given up a run in their respective last 3 appearances.

The Twins counter with Lohse who 1-2 for the season with an 8.77 ERA. Surprisingly though, the Twins are 3-2 in his starts this season. Of his 5 starts this season, 3 of those starts he has yielded 6+ ERs and one of those 3 games was against the Tigers. The other 2 starts were very good but it was against a very bad KC batting team and against a then struggling Oakland team. He has done well in the past against the Tigers where the Twins have gone 6-4 in his last 10 starts against them. However, in his last 7 starts against them, he has given up 4+ ERs in 5 of those games going about 5-6 innings each game. The Tigers love to face Lohse as 8 of the 11 bats that the Tigers regularly use are batting over .300 against him. More importantly, the #1-6 guys of the Tigers lineup all bat over 300 against him. I don’t see how Lohse can have an easy inning as this matchup doesn’t work well for him. There’s talks about him losing his starting job to Liriano and if Liriano hadn’t got tagged by the Tigers in their last meeting, we probably would’ve seen the change. However, Lohse has gotta be nervous.

Historically, he has shown that he can’t go past 6 innings and have been averaging about 5-6 innings a game. Unfortunately, there’s no relief for the Twins there, literally. The Twins were notoriously known for a solid bullpen and this season their pen has not lived to their reputation. Of all the guys they have available to use tonight, all of them have given up at least an ER in their respective last 3 appearances. 3 of the 5 guys available have given up 4 runs or more in their respective last 3 appearances. Only their closer Nathan have been lights out this season and I honestly think they will not be in a save situation tonight. Rincon has also been good but he went last night. Depending on the score, they may or may not use him.

The Twins are clearly outmatched in this matchup. They are beat in all categories: bats, starting pitching and bullpen. Unless, Lohse somehow figures out a way to throw a gem tonight and keep the Twins close, I don’t see how the Twins can win this tonight. I like the Tigers tonight in an easy win!

[Tinfish]

Atlanta Braves +140

Here we have another inter-divisional rivalry. This is the 7th time this season these two teams are facing each other where each team has won a series on the other team’s turf. Mets on a 7-3 streak while the Braves are on a 3-7 streak. The Braves coming off a 2-game loss to another divisional foe in Philly with both their #1-2 starters. Interesting enough the last time both Smoltz and Thomson lost (last week), Davies was the one to stop the slide and it was against the Mets. Conversely, the Mets are coming off 2 wins with their #1-2 starters and the last time both Pedro and Glavine won (last week), Trachsel gave them a loss and it was against the Braves.

Both teams are sending righties to the hill tonight and this will be the 2nd time these two starters matchup this season (Braves won 8-5). Both teams are batting fairly equal against righties with the Braves at .260 for the season and .267 in their last 10, and with the Mets at .263 for the season and the Braves at .269 in their last 10.

Davies is 2-2 for the season for the Braves and have been consistent for them this season. Other than 1 start, he has given up about 3 runs per game going about 5+ innings in each outing. He has faced the Mets only 3 times and the Braves have won all 3 times. One game he pitched a CG and held the Mets to 1 run in his first start against them this season. His lone start against them, he blanked them in a little over 5 innings. In those 3 starts, he’s held the Mets to 5 hits or less per game. I think he’s in a little of a groove as he has held his last 3 opponents to 4 hits or less and 3 ERs or less. If he can stay away from the long ball tonight he has a good shot to holding the Mets to 1 run tonight as only 3 of the Mets bats have had success against him. Only Nady, Woodward, and Castro are batting over .300 against him and those are at 3 ABs a piece. Most notable is that the big names of the Mets struggle against him. Matsui is yet to have a hit against him, Beltran has 1 hit in 5 tries (.200), Delgado is 0 for 10 against him, and Floyd is 1 for 6 (.167) against him.

The Mets counter with Trachsel tonight who is also 2-2 for the season. He got beat the last time he faced the Braves getting tagged for 6 runs in almost 4 innings of work giving up 8 hits in that span. He has had success against the Braves in the past as he for the most part has held them to 3 runs or less in 7 of his last 10 starts against them. What’s interesting is his play against them lately. The Mets has lost his last 3 starts against the Braves giving up 7+ hits in each game and giving up 4 and 6 ERs in 2 of the 3. Not sure if this is an indication of his age or the change of times as the Braves have a different lineup than when he was successful against them. Of the 9regular bats that the Braves use, 6 of them (67%) are batting well over .300 against him and this isn’t with few at-bats. Here’s how they matchup:

Renteria 0.432 16/37
Jones 0.242 16/66
Jones 0.385 25/65
Laroche 0.222 4/18
Francoeur 0.750 6/8
McCann 0.600 3/5
Langerhans 0.500 2/4
Jordan 0.396 19/48

With these numbers, I’d be willing to bank on the downward trend of Trachsel vs Braves. The only thing that concerns me with the Braves tonight is the pen matchup. The Mets pen has been very good this season, whereas, you’re not sure what you’re gonna get with the Braves pen. In fact, 2 of the 3 Braves wins against the Mets this season have come from CGs from Hudson and Davies. Of the remaining matchups, the Braves pen has given up 8 ERs in 8 IPs where the Mets pen only allowed 2 ERs in about 16 innings of relief. The edge clearly goes to the Mets in this aspect. Looking more closely at the Braves pen, they do have a solid reliever in Ray who has only given up runs in 1 of his 12 appearances this season. However, he pitched last night. If the Braves are up by a small margin late in the game, I’m sure they wouldn’t hesitate to use Ray as a bridge to Reitsma to close the game. They also have a respectable Villarreal if needed.

I’m not saying that this is a sure thing but I like the Braves with the plus money in this particular matchup.

I was leaning towards a Seattle play tonight, but I just can’t pull the trigger with them and against the Tribe, so I am laying off that game.