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15-11 YTD
Atlanta Braves/Florida Marlins Over 9 -110
Second time these two teams are meeting this season where the Braves took 2 out of 3 at Dolphins stadium the first time. The Marlins are coming of winning two in a row off of the Pirates scoring 8 and 9 runs in two of the 3 games against them. The Braves are coming off a loss to the Nats getting held to 1 run in their last game. However, prior to the that last game, the Braves have score 6+ runs in 5 of their last 7 games and two of them were against the Marlins. Last week, these two starting pitchers face one another where the Marlins smoked the Braves in an 11-3 rout. Also, in their series last week, the total has gone over in all 3 games. Both teams have been averaging 10 hits per game in their last 6.
The Braves send Davies to the mound who is 2-3 for the season with a 5.31 ERA. In 7 starts this season, he has given up 3+ runs in 6 of those starts. He averages about 3-4 ERs in about 5-6 innings of work. Of his last 10 starts, the over has gone 8-2. He has started twice against the Marlins and the Braves were 0-2 in those games both going over the total. He only last 4 and 5 innings in those starts. He can keep the Braves in the games but he won’t give you a Smoltz type of performance. Of the Marlins’ bats who have faced him, 6 of them have had success against Davies, where 4 of the 6 bats are the #1-4 in the order.
The Marlins send reliever turned starter Johnson to the mound tonight who has been very good as a starter for the Marlins thus far. He has 2 starts this season and he had held his opponents to 2 runs and 0 runs in those games, where one of those games was against the Braves blanking them over 6 innings. The Marlins are 2-0 against the Braves when he starts. Of the Braves bats, only Renteria and McCann have a batting average above .300 against him. The only problem with Johnson is that he can’t go deep into a game. Like I said earlier, he is a “reliever” turned starter. Of the 3 big leagues starts of his career, he’s gone 6 innings or less in each of those starts. Looking further into those starts against the Braves, he threw 96 pitches in 6 innings and 100 pitches in 5.1 innings. He doesn’t go deep. That’s where the Marlins will get into trouble if they don’t build a big enough lead.
Nolasco is the only one in the Marlins pen that hasn’t given up a run in his last 3 appearances. In fact, the last 2 relief appearances for the Marlins have been very good where they did not give up a run in a little over 4 innings of relief. However, this is more of an exception than the rule. Prior to those relief stints, the Marlins pen have given up at least 2 ERs in their last 4 appearances and 11 ERs in 18 innings of relief (5.50 ERA).
The Braves pen has been pretty good as they try to overcome injuries to relievers Cormier and James. Ray and Villarreal have been good so far this season. Their closer Reitsma has had trouble lately giving up 5 ERs in his last 3 appearances and about 4 innings of relief, on of which was a blown save to the Mets and the other was giving up 4 ERs in less than an inning to the Marlins.
I see the Marlins will get theirs early building an early lead off of Davies, something like 5-2, 6-3, and then the Braves adding some towards the latter half of the game as they try to come back. I like the over with Davies getting hit and the Marlins pen giving the Braves a good opportunity to make a comeback especially since Johnson will most likely go 5 maybe 6 and the Braves also getting last ups at home.
Atlanta Braves/Florida Marlins Over 9 -110
Second time these two teams are meeting this season where the Braves took 2 out of 3 at Dolphins stadium the first time. The Marlins are coming of winning two in a row off of the Pirates scoring 8 and 9 runs in two of the 3 games against them. The Braves are coming off a loss to the Nats getting held to 1 run in their last game. However, prior to the that last game, the Braves have score 6+ runs in 5 of their last 7 games and two of them were against the Marlins. Last week, these two starting pitchers face one another where the Marlins smoked the Braves in an 11-3 rout. Also, in their series last week, the total has gone over in all 3 games. Both teams have been averaging 10 hits per game in their last 6.
The Braves send Davies to the mound who is 2-3 for the season with a 5.31 ERA. In 7 starts this season, he has given up 3+ runs in 6 of those starts. He averages about 3-4 ERs in about 5-6 innings of work. Of his last 10 starts, the over has gone 8-2. He has started twice against the Marlins and the Braves were 0-2 in those games both going over the total. He only last 4 and 5 innings in those starts. He can keep the Braves in the games but he won’t give you a Smoltz type of performance. Of the Marlins’ bats who have faced him, 6 of them have had success against Davies, where 4 of the 6 bats are the #1-4 in the order.
The Marlins send reliever turned starter Johnson to the mound tonight who has been very good as a starter for the Marlins thus far. He has 2 starts this season and he had held his opponents to 2 runs and 0 runs in those games, where one of those games was against the Braves blanking them over 6 innings. The Marlins are 2-0 against the Braves when he starts. Of the Braves bats, only Renteria and McCann have a batting average above .300 against him. The only problem with Johnson is that he can’t go deep into a game. Like I said earlier, he is a “reliever” turned starter. Of the 3 big leagues starts of his career, he’s gone 6 innings or less in each of those starts. Looking further into those starts against the Braves, he threw 96 pitches in 6 innings and 100 pitches in 5.1 innings. He doesn’t go deep. That’s where the Marlins will get into trouble if they don’t build a big enough lead.
Nolasco is the only one in the Marlins pen that hasn’t given up a run in his last 3 appearances. In fact, the last 2 relief appearances for the Marlins have been very good where they did not give up a run in a little over 4 innings of relief. However, this is more of an exception than the rule. Prior to those relief stints, the Marlins pen have given up at least 2 ERs in their last 4 appearances and 11 ERs in 18 innings of relief (5.50 ERA).
The Braves pen has been pretty good as they try to overcome injuries to relievers Cormier and James. Ray and Villarreal have been good so far this season. Their closer Reitsma has had trouble lately giving up 5 ERs in his last 3 appearances and about 4 innings of relief, on of which was a blown save to the Mets and the other was giving up 4 ERs in less than an inning to the Marlins.
I see the Marlins will get theirs early building an early lead off of Davies, something like 5-2, 6-3, and then the Braves adding some towards the latter half of the game as they try to come back. I like the over with Davies getting hit and the Marlins pen giving the Braves a good opportunity to make a comeback especially since Johnson will most likely go 5 maybe 6 and the Braves also getting last ups at home.
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