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YTD 16-12
Taking a little different approach on some games today.
Everyone is talking about UNDER in the Toronto/Tampa game but I'm not sure that's the right side. I realize McDung has been dealing lately, but for Christ's sakes, it's still McDung we're talking about, and Janssen is still a rookie who hasn't beaten anyone besides Anaheim in his career so far. I realize Tampa struggles on the road and with righties, but.....
Now here's the bad news. I had to update this. The UMP info just came in and low and behold, it's Reliford, he of the 65.25 strike percentage this year. That's not a club member, I think that's the LEAGUE-LEADING club member. This rush to the windows on the UNDER does not thrill me one bit but it's a club member so despite my better thoughts of betting OVER, I gotta get involved. I also realize by selling from 9.5 to 9 that is a huge half-run and I could potentially lose it. But I just don't see this falling 9, it will either be way under or fly over as I fear. So let's see what happens.
THe play: Tor/Tampa UNDER 9
Houston hits the road for the first of four in D.C. The Astros have struggled lately because of a sputtering offense. Houston has not won a game in which it allowed more than three runs since May 3. The Astros are batting .194 as a team in the last eight games and .145 with runners in scoring position.
They should continue to struggle tonight against my boy Zach Day, who is 1-0 with a 1.93 ERA in two career starts vs. Houston. Day won his only start at RFK this season, shutting out Pittsburgh over seven innings on May 5. Meanwhile, Houston trots out Rodriguez, who had his shortest stint of the season last time. He was rocked for 11 runs in 3 2/3 innings while yielding 10 hits and walking five against San Francisco. Washington has won consecutive series at home for the first time all year following a win Sunday against Baltimore. The wrong team is favored here and I want to bet UNDER if I can get the right ump.
The play: Washington +106
Going with the struggling Reds and Arroyo tonight to clean it up against a Brewer team that is below-average on the road. Arroyo is 3-0 with a 2.74 ERA in four career starts against the Brewers. He pitched eight innings against them last month, giving up just the one run and six hits while striking out eight in a 3-1 win. The Brewers will be the fourth team Arroyo has faced twice this season. In three previous "second-look" games, he is 2-0 and has given up only one earned run in 24 innings - that is very unusual and a very solid stat. Bush has surrendered at least one homer in each of his last five starts and has had some control problems as of late - a problem against the patient Reds hitters.
The play: Reds -146
Going with Mulder and the Cards tonight at a surprisingly cheap price against Frisco. Yes, I realize the Giants went 5-1 on the road trip and their staff ERA was miniscule after yesterday's gem by Cain, but Bonds is hitting below the Mendoza Line at PacBell Park and Mulder is hot now, scary hot. He's 3-0 with a 2.21 ERA in his last three starts (shut out the Mets for 8 1/3 last week). The southpaw is 4-0 with a 2.43 ERA in his last four starts against San Francisco.
The play: St. Louis -131
Shocking to see the price the oddsmakers came up with on Boston yesterday. This marks the third day in succession that the Yankees are a noticeable underdog, something that you just don't see happen too often. Schilling has been good against the Yankees and solid at Fenway this season but Wang has won three straight starts and been decent in all of them. He allowed just two ER in 16 innings against Oakland and Texas and his success has been in large part due to a sinker and slider that have been working. He's induced an eye-popping number of ground-ball outs, which bodes well for him at hitter-friendly Fenway tonight. He gave up three runs in five innings in Boston May 1. I've heard rumblings that Schilling might not be 100 percent. Can the Yankees really leave 15 men on base and not come back in resounding fashion tonight? We'll find out.
The play: Yankees +143
The White Sox might be a better team than Oakland, but there's no reason they should be favored. I still believe Oakland is the best team in the American League West. Since 2003, Oakland is 19-8 against Chicago overall and has won four straight at U.S. Cellular Field. Zito is 7-2 against Chicago lifetime with a 3.18 ERA and the Sox are hitting just .211 against the him in 10 starts. The lefty beat Chicago in both of his starts against the Sox in 2005. Chicago counters with Garland, whose ERA is still over 6 and he's just 3-5 with a 4.73 ERA in his career against the A's. The dog is the right side here.
THe play: Oakland +111
Going to hope Emmel doesn't pop up in Seattle tonight. He's the only OVER ump I am terrified of, the rest of them are neutral enough to not deter me from a Seattle and UNDER parlay. Moyer has won only one of his 9 starts this year (April 30) but he's 17-3 vs. Baltimore lifetime, that's just plain sick. Moyer has had his struggles but he's also gotten little run support (just 14 runs scored by SEA in Moyer's last five starts). The Orioles just cannot hit lefties, as evidenced by their season-long struggle against them. Bedard has allowed 3 ER or less in seven of his 9 starts this season so he should keep the M's at bay as well.
The plays: SEA -120
Taking a little different approach on some games today.
Everyone is talking about UNDER in the Toronto/Tampa game but I'm not sure that's the right side. I realize McDung has been dealing lately, but for Christ's sakes, it's still McDung we're talking about, and Janssen is still a rookie who hasn't beaten anyone besides Anaheim in his career so far. I realize Tampa struggles on the road and with righties, but.....
Now here's the bad news. I had to update this. The UMP info just came in and low and behold, it's Reliford, he of the 65.25 strike percentage this year. That's not a club member, I think that's the LEAGUE-LEADING club member. This rush to the windows on the UNDER does not thrill me one bit but it's a club member so despite my better thoughts of betting OVER, I gotta get involved. I also realize by selling from 9.5 to 9 that is a huge half-run and I could potentially lose it. But I just don't see this falling 9, it will either be way under or fly over as I fear. So let's see what happens.
THe play: Tor/Tampa UNDER 9
Houston hits the road for the first of four in D.C. The Astros have struggled lately because of a sputtering offense. Houston has not won a game in which it allowed more than three runs since May 3. The Astros are batting .194 as a team in the last eight games and .145 with runners in scoring position.
They should continue to struggle tonight against my boy Zach Day, who is 1-0 with a 1.93 ERA in two career starts vs. Houston. Day won his only start at RFK this season, shutting out Pittsburgh over seven innings on May 5. Meanwhile, Houston trots out Rodriguez, who had his shortest stint of the season last time. He was rocked for 11 runs in 3 2/3 innings while yielding 10 hits and walking five against San Francisco. Washington has won consecutive series at home for the first time all year following a win Sunday against Baltimore. The wrong team is favored here and I want to bet UNDER if I can get the right ump.
The play: Washington +106
Going with the struggling Reds and Arroyo tonight to clean it up against a Brewer team that is below-average on the road. Arroyo is 3-0 with a 2.74 ERA in four career starts against the Brewers. He pitched eight innings against them last month, giving up just the one run and six hits while striking out eight in a 3-1 win. The Brewers will be the fourth team Arroyo has faced twice this season. In three previous "second-look" games, he is 2-0 and has given up only one earned run in 24 innings - that is very unusual and a very solid stat. Bush has surrendered at least one homer in each of his last five starts and has had some control problems as of late - a problem against the patient Reds hitters.
The play: Reds -146
Going with Mulder and the Cards tonight at a surprisingly cheap price against Frisco. Yes, I realize the Giants went 5-1 on the road trip and their staff ERA was miniscule after yesterday's gem by Cain, but Bonds is hitting below the Mendoza Line at PacBell Park and Mulder is hot now, scary hot. He's 3-0 with a 2.21 ERA in his last three starts (shut out the Mets for 8 1/3 last week). The southpaw is 4-0 with a 2.43 ERA in his last four starts against San Francisco.
The play: St. Louis -131
Shocking to see the price the oddsmakers came up with on Boston yesterday. This marks the third day in succession that the Yankees are a noticeable underdog, something that you just don't see happen too often. Schilling has been good against the Yankees and solid at Fenway this season but Wang has won three straight starts and been decent in all of them. He allowed just two ER in 16 innings against Oakland and Texas and his success has been in large part due to a sinker and slider that have been working. He's induced an eye-popping number of ground-ball outs, which bodes well for him at hitter-friendly Fenway tonight. He gave up three runs in five innings in Boston May 1. I've heard rumblings that Schilling might not be 100 percent. Can the Yankees really leave 15 men on base and not come back in resounding fashion tonight? We'll find out.
The play: Yankees +143
The White Sox might be a better team than Oakland, but there's no reason they should be favored. I still believe Oakland is the best team in the American League West. Since 2003, Oakland is 19-8 against Chicago overall and has won four straight at U.S. Cellular Field. Zito is 7-2 against Chicago lifetime with a 3.18 ERA and the Sox are hitting just .211 against the him in 10 starts. The lefty beat Chicago in both of his starts against the Sox in 2005. Chicago counters with Garland, whose ERA is still over 6 and he's just 3-5 with a 4.73 ERA in his career against the A's. The dog is the right side here.
THe play: Oakland +111
Going to hope Emmel doesn't pop up in Seattle tonight. He's the only OVER ump I am terrified of, the rest of them are neutral enough to not deter me from a Seattle and UNDER parlay. Moyer has won only one of his 9 starts this year (April 30) but he's 17-3 vs. Baltimore lifetime, that's just plain sick. Moyer has had his struggles but he's also gotten little run support (just 14 runs scored by SEA in Moyer's last five starts). The Orioles just cannot hit lefties, as evidenced by their season-long struggle against them. Bedard has allowed 3 ER or less in seven of his 9 starts this season so he should keep the M's at bay as well.
The plays: SEA -120