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Cincinnati/Milwaukee Over 10
The Brewers are sending a rookie leftie to the mound tonight as they are hurting for pitchers. The Reds have fared better against lefties as they are batting 0.277 for the season against them, 0.298 at home, and 0.337 in their last 10.
There’s not much data for Jackson other than 1 start at home against the Padres where he held them to 2 ERs. However, that was at home in a pitcher’s ballpark against a lesser batting team in the Padres who rank 3rd from last in batting average. Also, Jackson gave up 10 hits and 1 walk in 6 innings which would have been a little more runs had it been at a different venue against a better hitting team. To get more data on this guy, I extrapolated his triple A numbers.
In Nashville, he had a good 3.00 ERA. However, he pitched a total of 57 innings and given up 53 hits and 23 walks which equates to a 1.33 WHIP. He had 39 Ks which gives him about 1 K for every 1.5 innings. He averaged 5.7 innings in each outing.
In Syracuse, he had a 5.13 ERA. He pitched a total of 47 innings and given up 61 hits and 21 walks giving which equates to a 1.74 WHIP. He had 32 Ks which gives him about 1 K for every 1.5 inning similar to that of his Nashville numbers. He averaged 5.875 innings in each outing.
Based on this data, and against a better Reds lineup, I figure he goes about 6 innings and gives up about 4-5 runs and about 3-4 Ks.
The Reds have never faced him. Despite getting shut down the last 2 games with Zambrano and the Cubs rookie, they actually have been hitting the ball well the last 7 days batting average-wise. The 1st two-thirds of their lineup are batting well over .300 with
Freel 0.350
Lopez 0.357
Phillips 0.333
Griffey 0.368
Aurilia 0.250
Hatteberg 0.360
The Reds counter with Harang who has been pretty solid as of late giving up only 3 ERs or less in his last 5 outings. The Reds have done well against the Brewers when he starts against them as they are 6-2 when he starts against them. Harang faced them earlier in the season blanking them and pitching a complete game with only 5 hits and 2 walks. But that was at Miller park. At Great American, the Reds are 3-2 against the Brewers when he starts. In 3 of the 5 starts at Great American, he’s given up 5 or more ERs and not lasting more than 6 innings in any of those starts. Not only does he not last long in those starts, what’s even more telling is the amount of hits and walks he gave in those starts; WHIP or 1.65, 2.08, 1.80, 1.88, 1.60 which means that the Brewers should get their chances to score tonight, it’s just a matter of whether or not they are able to put the hits/walks together. Their bats have good numbers against Harang.
Clark 0.333
Hall 0.400
Jenkins 0.304
Lee 0.264
Fielder 0.167
Weeks 0.222
Koskie 0.375
Miller 0.333
The only bats that struggled are the meat of the order with Lee, Fielder, and Weeks. However, Lee has been on a tear lately batting 0.348 over the last 7 days and Weeks have been pretty hot with a 0.320 average over his last 7 days. They’ve also have been scoring consistently scoring about 4-6 runs in their last 10 games.
I say Harang goes about 6 innings today giving up about 4 ERs. So I figure the two starters will give up about combined 8 runs and it will be up to the pens to seal the deal.
The Brewers pen have been bad all season but surprised a lot of folks with their last 2 outings blanking the Cards in 7 innings of relief. However, like I said their pen is really not that good and we should see them more to form tonight if the rookie can’t go more than 6 innings. Over their last 10 games, the Brewers pen have given up a total of 15 ERs in 31 innings of relief. So far this season, head-to-head with the Reds, they’ve given up 21 ERs in about 20 innings of relief and only had 1 game out of 6 that they did not give up a run.
On the other hand, the Reds pen have been pretty good this season but have been struggling a little lately. They’ve given up 9 ERs against the Cubbies in their last series with about 10 innings of relief. Over their last 10 games, they’ve given up 18 ERs in about 30 innings or relief. They’ve given up runs in 8 of their last 10 games. Head-to-head against the Brewers this season, they’ve given up 9 ERs in 7 games with 21 innings of relief. In 5 of those 7 games, they’ve given up runs. They’re capable, but I’m hoping they continue to struggle tonight.
I hope both pitchers get shelled tonight in a football type of score, but with the Brewers consistently scoring about 5 runs a game, the Reds batting average pretty good over the last 7 days especially against lefties, and the respective situations with the pens, I’ll take a shot at the over the total tonight.
The Brewers are sending a rookie leftie to the mound tonight as they are hurting for pitchers. The Reds have fared better against lefties as they are batting 0.277 for the season against them, 0.298 at home, and 0.337 in their last 10.
There’s not much data for Jackson other than 1 start at home against the Padres where he held them to 2 ERs. However, that was at home in a pitcher’s ballpark against a lesser batting team in the Padres who rank 3rd from last in batting average. Also, Jackson gave up 10 hits and 1 walk in 6 innings which would have been a little more runs had it been at a different venue against a better hitting team. To get more data on this guy, I extrapolated his triple A numbers.
In Nashville, he had a good 3.00 ERA. However, he pitched a total of 57 innings and given up 53 hits and 23 walks which equates to a 1.33 WHIP. He had 39 Ks which gives him about 1 K for every 1.5 innings. He averaged 5.7 innings in each outing.
In Syracuse, he had a 5.13 ERA. He pitched a total of 47 innings and given up 61 hits and 21 walks giving which equates to a 1.74 WHIP. He had 32 Ks which gives him about 1 K for every 1.5 inning similar to that of his Nashville numbers. He averaged 5.875 innings in each outing.
Based on this data, and against a better Reds lineup, I figure he goes about 6 innings and gives up about 4-5 runs and about 3-4 Ks.
The Reds have never faced him. Despite getting shut down the last 2 games with Zambrano and the Cubs rookie, they actually have been hitting the ball well the last 7 days batting average-wise. The 1st two-thirds of their lineup are batting well over .300 with
Freel 0.350
Lopez 0.357
Phillips 0.333
Griffey 0.368
Aurilia 0.250
Hatteberg 0.360
The Reds counter with Harang who has been pretty solid as of late giving up only 3 ERs or less in his last 5 outings. The Reds have done well against the Brewers when he starts against them as they are 6-2 when he starts against them. Harang faced them earlier in the season blanking them and pitching a complete game with only 5 hits and 2 walks. But that was at Miller park. At Great American, the Reds are 3-2 against the Brewers when he starts. In 3 of the 5 starts at Great American, he’s given up 5 or more ERs and not lasting more than 6 innings in any of those starts. Not only does he not last long in those starts, what’s even more telling is the amount of hits and walks he gave in those starts; WHIP or 1.65, 2.08, 1.80, 1.88, 1.60 which means that the Brewers should get their chances to score tonight, it’s just a matter of whether or not they are able to put the hits/walks together. Their bats have good numbers against Harang.
Clark 0.333
Hall 0.400
Jenkins 0.304
Lee 0.264
Fielder 0.167
Weeks 0.222
Koskie 0.375
Miller 0.333
The only bats that struggled are the meat of the order with Lee, Fielder, and Weeks. However, Lee has been on a tear lately batting 0.348 over the last 7 days and Weeks have been pretty hot with a 0.320 average over his last 7 days. They’ve also have been scoring consistently scoring about 4-6 runs in their last 10 games.
I say Harang goes about 6 innings today giving up about 4 ERs. So I figure the two starters will give up about combined 8 runs and it will be up to the pens to seal the deal.
The Brewers pen have been bad all season but surprised a lot of folks with their last 2 outings blanking the Cards in 7 innings of relief. However, like I said their pen is really not that good and we should see them more to form tonight if the rookie can’t go more than 6 innings. Over their last 10 games, the Brewers pen have given up a total of 15 ERs in 31 innings of relief. So far this season, head-to-head with the Reds, they’ve given up 21 ERs in about 20 innings of relief and only had 1 game out of 6 that they did not give up a run.
On the other hand, the Reds pen have been pretty good this season but have been struggling a little lately. They’ve given up 9 ERs against the Cubbies in their last series with about 10 innings of relief. Over their last 10 games, they’ve given up 18 ERs in about 30 innings or relief. They’ve given up runs in 8 of their last 10 games. Head-to-head against the Brewers this season, they’ve given up 9 ERs in 7 games with 21 innings of relief. In 5 of those 7 games, they’ve given up runs. They’re capable, but I’m hoping they continue to struggle tonight.
I hope both pitchers get shelled tonight in a football type of score, but with the Brewers consistently scoring about 5 runs a game, the Reds batting average pretty good over the last 7 days especially against lefties, and the respective situations with the pens, I’ll take a shot at the over the total tonight.