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Toronto/Baltimore Over 9.5
We have a very similar situation to that of the total I played yesterday with the Reds and Brewers. We have another rookie facing a good hitting team and we have two teams with bottom tiered pens.
The Jays are sending a rightie and the Os are sending a leftie, which works into each team’s strength. The Jays have been feasting on lefties going 0.337 in their last 10 games, 0.375 at home, and 0.342 for the season. Despite their batting average struggles in their last 3 games, this is a great situation to wake up the bats. Furthermore, if the Jays were batting 0.182 the other night against Detroit and scored 3 runs, and the Jays were batting 0.188 last night and still scored 4 runs, wonder how many runs a 0.342 average would bring? To be honest with you, the Jays may score the over themselves. Good luck rookie.
The Os have done well against righties batting 0.329 in their last 10 games and 0.291 for the season against them. But they’re not facing any ordinary rightie as they are facing potential Cy Young candidate Halliday.
Loewen is going to the hill tonight against the Jays. He has 2 career starts in the bigs and one of them was against the Jays just last week. He was able to keep the Os close and they got the win. In that game, he gave up 11 hits and 1 walk in a little over 5 innings. In his first career start, it was against the Yankees where they didn’t have Giambi and Arod. He went 5 innings and gave up 3 ERs, 6 hits and 4 walks. Interesting note, in that game the Yanks stranded 13 runners and I believe 7-8 of those were when Loewen was in. He also has 2 relief appearances this season where he gave up 1 ER, 1 hit, and 1 walk in one third of an inning, and the other appearance he gave up 4 ERs, 4 hits and 2 walks in a little over 4 innings of relief. Common denominator in his rookie season, he gives up runs and he has a WHIP of at least 1.50 or above. He’s gonna get a good initiation tonight against one of the best lineups in the bigs who (1) have already seen him once and (2) are pissed they lost last night and (3) pissed they lost to him with their ace on the hill.
The Jays counter with Halliday who has been nasty so far this season going 7-1 with a 2.93 ERA and a WHIP of 1.01. My only concern would be how many runs the Os can contribute to the total with Halliday going. After dominating the Os for most of his career, his last 4 starts against them haven’t been all that stellar. The Jays are 1-3 against the Os in his last 4 starts against them dating back from this to last year. In two of those starts, Halliday’s given up 5+ ERs with one of those at home. In those 4 starts, he’s given up 7 or more hits and has a WHIP of 1.33 or more in 3 of those games. He’s gone 6 innings in 2 of those starts. I think the Os may continue the trend and get a few off of him. If they do, it’ll most likely come from the top half of the order. Here’s how they stack up against him:
roberts 0.385
mora 0.368
tejada 0.350
hernandez 0.400
millar 0.194
patterson 0.500
I’ll be happy if they get 3 off of him. As long as they make him work and go deep into the counts. The trick will be for them is that they don’t need to beat him, they need to get the pen and beat them. Ironically enough, of the 4 games the Os played the Jays last week, they scored the most runs when Halliday pitched.
Both teams’ pens are horrible and have struggled mightily lately. They both rank near the bottom of the league and have given up runs in 7 of their last 10 games. In their last 10 games, the Os pen has given up 20 ERs in about 35 innings of relief, giving them an ERA of a little over 5.00. The Jays pen has given up 22 ERs in 32 innings of relief giving them an ERA of a little over 6.00. In their last series when these two teams faced each other last week, the Jays pen gave up 7 ERs in 11 innings of relief while the Os pen did ok only giving up 4 ERs in about 14 innings of relief. With that said, the Jays know that they have to score a lot of runs off of Loewen so that their pen can’t blow it for Halliday.
I see Halliday giving up 2-3 runs and Loewen giving up about 5-6 runs. Loewen will go about 6 innings and the Os pen is good for at least 1. The key to this total is how early they can get Halliday out and force the Jays pen. I say Halliday goes out in the middle of the 6th and the Jays pen gives up at least 2. Best case scenario is Jays shell Loewen really early and we all can go to bed early and not worry about it.
We have a very similar situation to that of the total I played yesterday with the Reds and Brewers. We have another rookie facing a good hitting team and we have two teams with bottom tiered pens.
The Jays are sending a rightie and the Os are sending a leftie, which works into each team’s strength. The Jays have been feasting on lefties going 0.337 in their last 10 games, 0.375 at home, and 0.342 for the season. Despite their batting average struggles in their last 3 games, this is a great situation to wake up the bats. Furthermore, if the Jays were batting 0.182 the other night against Detroit and scored 3 runs, and the Jays were batting 0.188 last night and still scored 4 runs, wonder how many runs a 0.342 average would bring? To be honest with you, the Jays may score the over themselves. Good luck rookie.
The Os have done well against righties batting 0.329 in their last 10 games and 0.291 for the season against them. But they’re not facing any ordinary rightie as they are facing potential Cy Young candidate Halliday.
Loewen is going to the hill tonight against the Jays. He has 2 career starts in the bigs and one of them was against the Jays just last week. He was able to keep the Os close and they got the win. In that game, he gave up 11 hits and 1 walk in a little over 5 innings. In his first career start, it was against the Yankees where they didn’t have Giambi and Arod. He went 5 innings and gave up 3 ERs, 6 hits and 4 walks. Interesting note, in that game the Yanks stranded 13 runners and I believe 7-8 of those were when Loewen was in. He also has 2 relief appearances this season where he gave up 1 ER, 1 hit, and 1 walk in one third of an inning, and the other appearance he gave up 4 ERs, 4 hits and 2 walks in a little over 4 innings of relief. Common denominator in his rookie season, he gives up runs and he has a WHIP of at least 1.50 or above. He’s gonna get a good initiation tonight against one of the best lineups in the bigs who (1) have already seen him once and (2) are pissed they lost last night and (3) pissed they lost to him with their ace on the hill.
The Jays counter with Halliday who has been nasty so far this season going 7-1 with a 2.93 ERA and a WHIP of 1.01. My only concern would be how many runs the Os can contribute to the total with Halliday going. After dominating the Os for most of his career, his last 4 starts against them haven’t been all that stellar. The Jays are 1-3 against the Os in his last 4 starts against them dating back from this to last year. In two of those starts, Halliday’s given up 5+ ERs with one of those at home. In those 4 starts, he’s given up 7 or more hits and has a WHIP of 1.33 or more in 3 of those games. He’s gone 6 innings in 2 of those starts. I think the Os may continue the trend and get a few off of him. If they do, it’ll most likely come from the top half of the order. Here’s how they stack up against him:
roberts 0.385
mora 0.368
tejada 0.350
hernandez 0.400
millar 0.194
patterson 0.500
I’ll be happy if they get 3 off of him. As long as they make him work and go deep into the counts. The trick will be for them is that they don’t need to beat him, they need to get the pen and beat them. Ironically enough, of the 4 games the Os played the Jays last week, they scored the most runs when Halliday pitched.
Both teams’ pens are horrible and have struggled mightily lately. They both rank near the bottom of the league and have given up runs in 7 of their last 10 games. In their last 10 games, the Os pen has given up 20 ERs in about 35 innings of relief, giving them an ERA of a little over 5.00. The Jays pen has given up 22 ERs in 32 innings of relief giving them an ERA of a little over 6.00. In their last series when these two teams faced each other last week, the Jays pen gave up 7 ERs in 11 innings of relief while the Os pen did ok only giving up 4 ERs in about 14 innings of relief. With that said, the Jays know that they have to score a lot of runs off of Loewen so that their pen can’t blow it for Halliday.
I see Halliday giving up 2-3 runs and Loewen giving up about 5-6 runs. Loewen will go about 6 innings and the Os pen is good for at least 1. The key to this total is how early they can get Halliday out and force the Jays pen. I say Halliday goes out in the middle of the 6th and the Jays pen gives up at least 2. Best case scenario is Jays shell Loewen really early and we all can go to bed early and not worry about it.