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Wednesday June 14th Baseball

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  • Wednesday June 14th Baseball

    Here’s what I like today ...


    San Francisco Giants -115 vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

    Two teams really struggling right now with the Dbacks stopping a 7 game slide with a close 2-1 victory last night. The Giants have now lost 4 in a row. If you look deep into their recent play, you can find some interesting stuff.

    The Dbacks went on an incredible run going like 15-5 in a 20 game stretch prior to the 7 game slide and you ask what caused the sudden reversal of fortune? What’s different? During their winning streak, their bats would came alive for short stretches here and there but the main reason why they were so hot was because their pitching was just lights out, more so relief than starting. And it also doesn’t hurt to have Webb as your ace. However, since that time, during their 7 game slide their pitching has given up 5+ runs in every game and in 5 of those 7 games they’ve given up 7+ runs. To make matter worse, their offense only scored more than 3 runs once during that period.

    Conversely, what’s been killing the Giants for the most part of the season has actually come to form lately; their pitching. In their last 8 games, they’ve given up 4 or more runs in only 3 of those games. It wasn’t the lack of pitching that caused them to go on this little slide but rather it’s their offense losing games like last night 1-2, 0-2, 2-3 in 3 of their last 4 games. I read somewhere that the SF pitching lead the majors with an ERA of 3.32 since May 9th in a span of 32 games.

    Both teams are sending righties to the mound today where both bat around the same average against righties in their last 10 games.

    The Giants send Cain to the mound today and they’re still waiting for the Cain of last year who started in 7 games with a 2.33 ERA. He is 4-5 for the season with a 5.20 ERA but the Giants have won his last 4 outings where he held his opponents to 3 ERs or less. He’s faced the Dbacks twice already this season where the Giants lost both games. The Giants are 1-3 when he starts against the Dbacks but his starts were respectable. He averaged 6 innings in those outings and in 3 of the 4 outings he held the Dbacks to 3 ERs or less. In those 4 games, he had a WHIP of 1.17, 1.80, 1.26, and 0.57. Other than the one outing where he gave up 5 ERs, he kept the Giants in it to win those games. Their bats and bullpen lost it for them as the Giants only scored 3 runs or less in those 4 starts. Of the Dbacks bats, only a handful have had success against him,

    Davanon 0.667
    Jackson 0.333
    Green 0.375
    Estrada 0.500

    Davanon has 3 at bats against Cain and he is batting 0.188 in his last 7 games. Jackson also only has 3 at bats against Cain and he is batting 0.167 in his last 7 games. Both Green and Estrada have had some consistency against Cain and both of them are batting at 0.200 in their last 7 games. Also, of all the active Dbacks bats, only Hudson is batting at 0.300 in his last 7 games and everyone else is batting around the low 0.200s or less. I think Cain puts out another solid effort against the Dbacks today like he has in the past and from what we’ve seen from him in his last 4 starts.

    The Dbacks send Vargas to the hill today who had a little stretch during their win streak where he was dominant but lately have been flip flopping good with bad outings. The Dbacks are 2-2 when he starts against the Giants where both losses came at home. His most recent outing against the Giants, he couldn’t get out of the 3rd inning giving up 6 ERs on 8 hits and 4 walks. His other outings, he was respectable limiting the Giants to 3-4 ERs and going about 6 innings in each outing. However, what’s interesting is that in those 4 outings he had a WHIP of 4.49, 1.67, 1.83, and 2.20. Makes me wonder how he got away with only giving up 3-4 ERs in some of those games putting that many guys on base. That trend should continue today as the Giants bats have good number against him.

    Winn 0.545
    Vizquel 0.444
    Durham 0.333
    Bonds 0.400
    Alou 0.500
    Ellison 0.333
    Greene 0.375

    What I love about this matchup is how almost the first 2/3 of the lineup are batting 0.333 or above against him. Winn has 3 HRs against him in 11 at-bats.

    I see both pitchers going about 6 innings and I give the slight edge to the Giants based on the matchups vs the starting pitchers. I’m hoping the Vargas gets knocked around early but I do see the Giants leading after 6 innings with a score like 5-3, 4-2 or something like that. Where I begin to see even more value with the Giants is the pen. Like I said earlier, their pitching has stepped up whereas the Dbacks have not.

    In 3 of their 4 last games, the Giants pen have held their opponents scoreless and have only given up more than 1 ER in 3 of their last 10 games. They’ve given up 13 ERs in about 29 innings of relief over their last 10 games giving them an ERA of about 4.00. The Dbacks pen have given up 23 ERs in their last 10 games with 31 innings of relief giving them an ERA of about 6.67. They’ve given up at least an ER in 9 of their last 10 games and whenever they had to go more than 3 innings they’ve given up multiple runs. There’s a good chance of it tonight as Vargas hasn’t gone more than 6 innings as a Dback against the Giants.

    I like how the matchups stack up against the respective starters which should give the Giants the edge and the way the respective pens are pitching as of late, the latter part of the game should only provide more insurance of a Giants win.
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