Friday June 23rd Baseball

[Tinfish]

Indians -129
Westbrook’s sinkerball has really looked good in recent outings, and he is finally starting to resemble the pitcher he was a couple of years ago. This is a good opportunity for him to continue to improve, as he has pitched well all year at home, and has had past success against the Reds and a couple of their hitters. He is also a pitcher that seems to really pitch well against teams and players that have not seen a lot of him, something the Reds lineup qualify under. Westbrook has shown the ability to go deep into games in the last couple of months, which is a huge asset, as the Indians have one of the worst bullpens in baseball. He is also a pitcher that has cut down on his waste pitches, only walking four batters in his last four starts combined, and has also gone four starts in a row in which he has allowed less hits than innings pitched. The Indians are a better rested team heading into this game, including their bullpen that got a much needed day off yesterday. The Reds bats continue to head into a downward spiral, only managing two hits against Pedro in yesterday’s game.

I am a fan of Harrang, and feel he is one of the least respected pitchers in the league, but I feel he might run into a potential road block in this game. Harrang is pitching a bit over his head in his road starts this year, as he has not been nearly this effective in his road outings over the last three years. He appears to be fooling less people in his recent outings, and he has been getting hit much easier. He has also been going for the strike out a bit too much, forcing his pitch count to get too high early in games, not allowing him to avoid the bullpen pitchers that have been struggling in recent outings. This does not bode well for the Reds, as their bullpen is tired and underachieving in recent outings. This looks like a good spot for the Indians bats to come alive.

[Tinfish]

Braves -144
I don’t know why I continue to be drawn to this team, as their fundamental baseball play has been worse than any other team in baseball during their losing streak. However, this appears to be a really good spot for them to end their drought. Smoltz is a big game pitcher that would love to put forth a solid outing to give his team a chance to end their losing streak. This is the spot in which he has excelled in as a Brave pitcher. Today he faces a young lineup in which he could take advantage of, as they don’t show the most discipline at the plate. Smoltz has also been a much more effective pitcher in domes, as he gets to put a lot more movement and control of his pitches in this environment. The Devil Rays lineup also doesn’t take a lot of pitches, allowing Smoltz to conserve his pitch count and avoid one of the most pathetic bullpens I have ever seen. Sosa also might be available for this game, which gives the Braves a huge asset in the bullpen, especially if he eventually becomes a two inning reliever, as he has been a much more effective pitcher in his early innings of his starts this year.

Fossum is not an ideal pitcher to have a team continue their losing streak. He is also a pitcher that has struggled against the Braves and a few of their hitters in the limited at bats they have seen of him. Fossum also lacks the ability to avoid his bullpen’s weaker pitchers, which is a huge asset for the Braves, as the Devil Rays also have one of the more anemic bullpens in baseball. This might be a game that goes down to the bullpens and the pitcher that is better capable of avoiding theirs, which the Braves have the big advantage. A change of scenery also might do the Braves good, as the constant pressure of the Braves fans and boos surely didn’t help their game. The Braves lineup is also a notorious fly ball hitting lineup, which bodes well in this hitter’s park, where the ball travels well in.

[Tinfish]

Astros +161
Big underdogs always make for intriguing bets in a revenge game, as they usually add an intangible to the game. This is a big revenge spot for the Astros, as they face the team that swept them in last years world series. Although Pettite has really struggled this year, especially in his road outings, he has always been a huge big game pitcher, something that this game definitely falls under. He pitched well against this team in last years Series. The White Sox are also a much less potent lineup this year against southpaws, even with their padded stats against them as they accumulated a lot of numbers against an injured Mulder this week. The White Sox also might be the most tired lineup in baseball after their games Tuesday and Wednesday, and it certainly showed in yesterday’s game. Pettite also seems to be getting progressively better, as he has been able to put forth three solid outings in a row, and has also pitched to good road outings in a row as well. He is also backed by a deep bullpen that should get progressively better as well, a bullpen that also had success against the White Sox last October.

Contreras continues to be too overvalued to not take chances to go against him. He appears to not be as an effective pitcher since coming off the DL, and appears much more hittable. He also appears to have gone in strike out mode during his last two starts, which is not necessarily a good thing, as he has been eating up a lot of pitches. The Astros are also a team that has done a good job drawing walks which is an asset to have with Contreras, as he is rarely in the strike zone, and has been plagued a bit in a couple of his last starts by a high walk total.

I am not sure if the Astros will win, as the White Sox are putting the better team on the field tonight. However, at this price, I am willing to take my chances for a revenge upset.

[Tinfish]

Ranges @ Rockies Over 9.5
I am well aware of Coors Field being an under machine this year, but I feel now that books have fully adjusted to this trend, and now overs in this park are coming with value. This appears to be a good series in which some overs occur in this park, as the Rangers are huge fly ball hitting team, and also a team notorious for doubles, which may lead to triples in this parks spacious outfield. The Rangers have also been one of the best lineups in baseball against left handed pitching, giving a good opportunity for Francis to come down to earth a bit. Francis is coming off a start in which he got a reality check against a solid team against southpaws, and also seemed to really slow down last year around this time of the season. Although he has been known to be a pitcher that is hard to pick up, usually giving him an advantage against teams that have never seen him before, he has not been known to be a solid pitcher in these spots.

Young pitchers who are making their first start ever in this park usually has a psychological disadvantage to start of the game. Koronka is prone to this deficiency here. he has also been slowing down a bit in recent outings, as he has been much more hittable and has also been walking batters at an alarming rate. The Rockies lineup has been picking up left handed pitching well this year, and are in fact one of the hottest lineups in baseball this year against southpaws. They are now hitting over .300 as a team against them, and one of the hottest hitter’s in the league, Holliday, has been hitting them at an alarming rate. Koronka has really struggled eating up innings in recent starts, and this appears to be one of those starts in which he more than likely won’t be able to eat up a lot of innings. This does not bode well for the under, as the Rangers long relief has not been pitching well of late, and should allow the Rockies to have scoring opportunities throughout this game.