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1. Argentina PK +119vs. Germany
2. Argentina vs. Germany over 2
Ok, so what do we have here. What was once the perennial favorite to advance to the final is now getting plus money against the home nation. Hmmmm. Can you tell which way the betting public is going in this game? More importantly, is the money coming in on the home-side Germany justified? I personally don’t think so. I just don’t think that the fan support is going to be enough to propel the Germans into the next round.
First a look at Germany. They came out smoking against Costa Rica, scoring 4 goals against a much weaker side. Most importantly though, they conceded two goals to that side. Against Poland, they were held scoreless until Oliver Neuville scored in the 91st minute to get them past another weaker club. Then against Ecuador, the Germans won 3-0 albeit against an Ecuador team that rested some of their best players and had nothing to play for, looking forward instead to their England clash. Then came Sweden, a club that was in poor form. They played the majority of that game with an extra man after the Sweden red card in the 35th.
Then there is Argentina. A team that likes to walk the ball up the field with clinical precision unlike the Germans who prefer to play a fast paced offensive game. However, Argentina can play that quickness game too with Messi and Tavez having fantastic pace. Germany’s midfield was bolstered by the return of Ballack but they won’t play that clog-the-midfield style that the Mexicans did against Argentina because that’s not the strength of the German game. Thus, I think that Argentina will be able to dominate the German midfield and create more space for themselves on the offensive end. I think that the smaller quicker players such as the aforementioned Messi or Tavez can really stretch this less mobile German defense. For all their height and power, the German centre backs aren’t mobile enough to deal with the Argentinean attack.
I just think that man for man, the Argentinean midfield is better. Actually, man for man, Argentina is the better team. Ballack gets my nod for the Germans but reports still seem to indicate that his fitness level might not quite be at 100%. He missed Tuesday’s practice with one report indicating a swollen ankle and the other indicating a calf strain. Klose also missed practice on Tuesday (Tendonitis). In any event, Argentina destroyed Serbia as we all know by now and they got past a pretty speedy Ivory Coast team 2-1. They also battled the Netherlands and were given a good game by the Mexicans before disposing of them in extra time.
Now a look at some vital statistics.
Germany has had 78 shots in this tournament with 38 of them landing on net. They scored 10 goals in their games up to this point. Argentina has also scored 10 goals up to this point but they have gotten their 10 goals on only 21 shots on net (41 shots overall). Therefore, it can be said that the Argentineans are more efficient. One in every 4 shots for Argentina has gone in whereas Germany has needed twice as many shots per goal.
It can be said that both these teams’ strengths are in the attack, not on defense. It won’t surprise me the least to see Germany press for that all important first goal in this match which will open up counter-attacks for Argentina. If for example the Germans get out in front first then I also think they will go for a second goal rather than sit back and dangerously absorb the Argentinean attacks. If Argentina manages to score first then you know what you are going to get out of the Germans. So, with two contrasting styles of football at play here, I will also wager this game to go over the total.
At the end of the day, the better talent will in my view be the deciding factor in this game. Wins over Costa Rica, Ecuador and Poland (barely) don’t impress me much. This will be the best team Germany has faced all tournament.
On an end note, the referee for this game is Michel Lubos of Slovenia. He’s averaged 6.3 cards per game and he is known for brandishing the yellow card quite easily. These are 3 of the games that he refereed this tournament already. Sweden vs. Paraguay - 9 yellows; Portugal vs. Mexico 9 yellows 1 Red; Brazil vs. Ghana 8 yellows 1 Red. In fact in that Ghana game, the Ghana coach actually confronted the referee and told him it would be better if he just put on a Brazil jersey for the second half… too funny.
Much has been said of a fix to get Germany into the finals. Who does that really benefit? I don’t buy it. While there is corruption in all levels of football, (Germany was hit with a scandal and now it’s Italy’s turn) you must remember….these games are already sold out. Getting Germany into the finals to generate revenue doesn’t make sense. The semi’s quarter finals and finals have been sold out for months.
League match fixing is more prevalent because too many other factors are at play. For example, there is huge money in Champions league play. Fixing games to qualify for European league play makes more sense because you are locking up revenue for the following season. Or, you may want to fix a game to avoid relegation etc etc. However, in such a tournament, you are not going to gain any ticket sales for a sold out event. A good friend of mine who works for a Germany company tried to secure tickets for the final. He was quoted $5,000.00 US per ticket (not including air-fare of course, that’s just a game ticket) on the secondary market. He expletively declined. Everyone watches the world cup final. It doesn't matter what countries are involved.
So, whether the fix is in for this game I’ll leave up to the conspiracy theorists. However, I’ve got to back the better team.
2. Argentina vs. Germany over 2
Ok, so what do we have here. What was once the perennial favorite to advance to the final is now getting plus money against the home nation. Hmmmm. Can you tell which way the betting public is going in this game? More importantly, is the money coming in on the home-side Germany justified? I personally don’t think so. I just don’t think that the fan support is going to be enough to propel the Germans into the next round.
First a look at Germany. They came out smoking against Costa Rica, scoring 4 goals against a much weaker side. Most importantly though, they conceded two goals to that side. Against Poland, they were held scoreless until Oliver Neuville scored in the 91st minute to get them past another weaker club. Then against Ecuador, the Germans won 3-0 albeit against an Ecuador team that rested some of their best players and had nothing to play for, looking forward instead to their England clash. Then came Sweden, a club that was in poor form. They played the majority of that game with an extra man after the Sweden red card in the 35th.
Then there is Argentina. A team that likes to walk the ball up the field with clinical precision unlike the Germans who prefer to play a fast paced offensive game. However, Argentina can play that quickness game too with Messi and Tavez having fantastic pace. Germany’s midfield was bolstered by the return of Ballack but they won’t play that clog-the-midfield style that the Mexicans did against Argentina because that’s not the strength of the German game. Thus, I think that Argentina will be able to dominate the German midfield and create more space for themselves on the offensive end. I think that the smaller quicker players such as the aforementioned Messi or Tavez can really stretch this less mobile German defense. For all their height and power, the German centre backs aren’t mobile enough to deal with the Argentinean attack.
I just think that man for man, the Argentinean midfield is better. Actually, man for man, Argentina is the better team. Ballack gets my nod for the Germans but reports still seem to indicate that his fitness level might not quite be at 100%. He missed Tuesday’s practice with one report indicating a swollen ankle and the other indicating a calf strain. Klose also missed practice on Tuesday (Tendonitis). In any event, Argentina destroyed Serbia as we all know by now and they got past a pretty speedy Ivory Coast team 2-1. They also battled the Netherlands and were given a good game by the Mexicans before disposing of them in extra time.
Now a look at some vital statistics.
Germany has had 78 shots in this tournament with 38 of them landing on net. They scored 10 goals in their games up to this point. Argentina has also scored 10 goals up to this point but they have gotten their 10 goals on only 21 shots on net (41 shots overall). Therefore, it can be said that the Argentineans are more efficient. One in every 4 shots for Argentina has gone in whereas Germany has needed twice as many shots per goal.
It can be said that both these teams’ strengths are in the attack, not on defense. It won’t surprise me the least to see Germany press for that all important first goal in this match which will open up counter-attacks for Argentina. If for example the Germans get out in front first then I also think they will go for a second goal rather than sit back and dangerously absorb the Argentinean attacks. If Argentina manages to score first then you know what you are going to get out of the Germans. So, with two contrasting styles of football at play here, I will also wager this game to go over the total.
At the end of the day, the better talent will in my view be the deciding factor in this game. Wins over Costa Rica, Ecuador and Poland (barely) don’t impress me much. This will be the best team Germany has faced all tournament.
On an end note, the referee for this game is Michel Lubos of Slovenia. He’s averaged 6.3 cards per game and he is known for brandishing the yellow card quite easily. These are 3 of the games that he refereed this tournament already. Sweden vs. Paraguay - 9 yellows; Portugal vs. Mexico 9 yellows 1 Red; Brazil vs. Ghana 8 yellows 1 Red. In fact in that Ghana game, the Ghana coach actually confronted the referee and told him it would be better if he just put on a Brazil jersey for the second half… too funny.
Much has been said of a fix to get Germany into the finals. Who does that really benefit? I don’t buy it. While there is corruption in all levels of football, (Germany was hit with a scandal and now it’s Italy’s turn) you must remember….these games are already sold out. Getting Germany into the finals to generate revenue doesn’t make sense. The semi’s quarter finals and finals have been sold out for months.
League match fixing is more prevalent because too many other factors are at play. For example, there is huge money in Champions league play. Fixing games to qualify for European league play makes more sense because you are locking up revenue for the following season. Or, you may want to fix a game to avoid relegation etc etc. However, in such a tournament, you are not going to gain any ticket sales for a sold out event. A good friend of mine who works for a Germany company tried to secure tickets for the final. He was quoted $5,000.00 US per ticket (not including air-fare of course, that’s just a game ticket) on the secondary market. He expletively declined. Everyone watches the world cup final. It doesn't matter what countries are involved.
So, whether the fix is in for this game I’ll leave up to the conspiracy theorists. However, I’ve got to back the better team.
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