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1. Italy to Advance +147
2. Italy Pk +168 vs. Germany
The best way to break this down is to simply break down the teams.
Goaltenders… there’s no dispute here. He’s not the world’s most expensive goaltender for nothing. Buffon has showed the world why Juventus paid so much money to pry him away from Parma when they did. No comparison in my book. While Lehmann is a top flight goaltender himself, I have to give the edge to Buffon. He’s the only goaltender remaining not to have conceded a goal yet this tournament. The only goal the US managed to get was an own-goal.
Defense. Again, I have to give the edge to the Italians. Even with their stud Alessandro Nesta injured, they managed to shut the door. Cannavaro is a stud. Probably the best in this tournament. Team captain and downright perfect positionally, this 5 foot 8 inch tall defender beats most players to the ball with his head. He has uncanny leaping and timing ability in the back. Materazzi and Barzagli have shown they are capable too. You can’t compare the two defenses in my book. Sorry. The numbers again speak for themselves.
Midfield. Germany has wonder-kid Michael Ballack. However, Italy carries probably the most tenacious midfielder remaining in the tournament and that’s AC Milan’s Gennaro Gattuso. This guy is everywhere the action is. He gets in to opponents faces, is positionally and tactically sound and does not make many mistakes. Gattuso got the better of Ballack in this past season’s Champions League action when AC Milan defeated Ballack’s club team of last year, Bayern Munich. You also of free kick specialist Andrea Pirlo and another offensive midfielder in Francesco Totti. If you need to go to the bench, you can count on DelPiero. Juventus’ Cramoranesi is also a very capable holding midfielder. (reports indicate though that he is nursing a bum knee). However, Ballack continues to suffer from the effects of his injury and he suffered from some severe cramping vs. Argentina. (fatigue setting in?)
Finally the forwards. Klose has done an exceptional job for the Germans. I'm also impressed with Podoski. However Cannavaro and Zambrotta are familiar with Klose as they were on the Juventus team that eliminated Klose’s club team Werder Bremen in this past season’s Champions League play. I don’t know if there is another legitimate threat up front for the Germans. Italy on the other hand have seen Serie A goal scoring leader Luca Toni break out in his last game while they also have capable strikers Gilardino and Inzaghi off the bench. They can also call on Iaquinta. The Italians can also count on attack minded DelPiero from the midfield and then there's Totti who likes to get up with the forwards. I also noted that Klose for Germany suffered from cramping in the Argentina game.
Some observations. Germany was fortunate in my mind to get past Argentina. They didn’t so much win the match but Argentina and poor coaching in my mind helped them immensely. Peckerman’s poor substation choices near the end of that game helped immensely. What I’ve noticed about Italy in this cup final differs from their last few International tournaments. That is, this is not an Italian team that’s going to let up, especially if they get the first goal. Marcello Lippi has allowed his boys to go out there and win the game. They are not going to fall back for no-one. He has fielded attack minded formations and utilized attack minded tactics unlike the last few Italian teams that relied too heavily on protecting their own end first and then hoping for goals. This team has the ability to go out, generate chances and score. He has not made one bad substation for the team.
Also, it was obvious that Argentina really made the Germans expend a ton of energy. How big a factor will that be is anyone’s guess. What is for certain though is that the German side ran hard for 120 minutes while Italy put their gears in cruise control against Ukraine as they pretty much had their way with an obviously weaker opponent.
Statistically, Italy has had 63 shots at goal with 35 of those shots landing on goal. They have scored 9 goals meaning they need 3.88 shots on goal for every goal. Germany has put 88 shots at goal landing 43 on target. They have scored 11 goals needing just under 4 shots on goal for every goal. Italy has been slightly more effective in that regard.
The fatigue factor….Packing 5 games into such a short period can have it’s affect. From my analysis, it can be said that Marcello Lippi has used his bench a lot better than the Klinsmann. Heading into this game, Italy has all but 3 players who have played more than 410 minutes so far in this tournament. Cannavaro, (450) Pirlo (427) and Perrotta (450). The rest of the team aren’t even close. Germany on the other hand Arne Fridrich (453) Torsten Frings (449) Klose (408 Phillip Lahm (480) Mertesacker (480) and Podolski ) (443). Fresh legs will be at a premium however it is noteworthy for me at least that Toni has played only 286 minutes, Gilardino 257 minutes and Iaquinta 102. There’s there is always feisty little Inzaghi should he be needed. Lippi has used his bench very well and there are plenty of fresh legs should he need to go to them. I have the suspicion that Italy will try to run at Germany early.
Bulletin Board material…. Germany weekly newspaper Der Spiegel came out with an article late last week that called Italians parasites and slimy. Alessandro Nesta promptly relied, "From fashion to restaurants, we're a population of workers," defender Alessandro Nesta said. "People criticize us, but then they want to dress and eat like us. There's a bit of jealousy.” Gennaro Gattuso said in the press that the article offended his family. Also, Italy will have former player Pesotto on their mind and in their hearts as they did in their last game.
Benito Archundia is the match referee. He’s regarded as a solid referee who knows how to keep control of a game. He’s not a card crazy ref and he does a pretty good job with the flow of the game. He has averaged a mere 3 yellow card per game and has only expelled one player. He also has nearly perfect posture when he issues cards. These are his games.
Croatia vs. Brazil – 4 yellow cards, 0 red cards
Czech Republic vs. Italy – 3 yellow cards, 1 red card
France vs. South Korea – 4 yellow cards, 0 red cards
Ukraine vs. Switzerland – 1 yellow card, 0 red cards
When all is said and done, I can only find 1 real edge to give to Germany which is the obvious home field advantage. I do not feel though, that when all is considered, that it will be enough. Italy should have enough in the tank to get past Germany in what I feel will be an entertaining contest. Italy will advance to the final.
2. Italy Pk +168 vs. Germany
The best way to break this down is to simply break down the teams.
Goaltenders… there’s no dispute here. He’s not the world’s most expensive goaltender for nothing. Buffon has showed the world why Juventus paid so much money to pry him away from Parma when they did. No comparison in my book. While Lehmann is a top flight goaltender himself, I have to give the edge to Buffon. He’s the only goaltender remaining not to have conceded a goal yet this tournament. The only goal the US managed to get was an own-goal.
Defense. Again, I have to give the edge to the Italians. Even with their stud Alessandro Nesta injured, they managed to shut the door. Cannavaro is a stud. Probably the best in this tournament. Team captain and downright perfect positionally, this 5 foot 8 inch tall defender beats most players to the ball with his head. He has uncanny leaping and timing ability in the back. Materazzi and Barzagli have shown they are capable too. You can’t compare the two defenses in my book. Sorry. The numbers again speak for themselves.
Midfield. Germany has wonder-kid Michael Ballack. However, Italy carries probably the most tenacious midfielder remaining in the tournament and that’s AC Milan’s Gennaro Gattuso. This guy is everywhere the action is. He gets in to opponents faces, is positionally and tactically sound and does not make many mistakes. Gattuso got the better of Ballack in this past season’s Champions League action when AC Milan defeated Ballack’s club team of last year, Bayern Munich. You also of free kick specialist Andrea Pirlo and another offensive midfielder in Francesco Totti. If you need to go to the bench, you can count on DelPiero. Juventus’ Cramoranesi is also a very capable holding midfielder. (reports indicate though that he is nursing a bum knee). However, Ballack continues to suffer from the effects of his injury and he suffered from some severe cramping vs. Argentina. (fatigue setting in?)
Finally the forwards. Klose has done an exceptional job for the Germans. I'm also impressed with Podoski. However Cannavaro and Zambrotta are familiar with Klose as they were on the Juventus team that eliminated Klose’s club team Werder Bremen in this past season’s Champions League play. I don’t know if there is another legitimate threat up front for the Germans. Italy on the other hand have seen Serie A goal scoring leader Luca Toni break out in his last game while they also have capable strikers Gilardino and Inzaghi off the bench. They can also call on Iaquinta. The Italians can also count on attack minded DelPiero from the midfield and then there's Totti who likes to get up with the forwards. I also noted that Klose for Germany suffered from cramping in the Argentina game.
Some observations. Germany was fortunate in my mind to get past Argentina. They didn’t so much win the match but Argentina and poor coaching in my mind helped them immensely. Peckerman’s poor substation choices near the end of that game helped immensely. What I’ve noticed about Italy in this cup final differs from their last few International tournaments. That is, this is not an Italian team that’s going to let up, especially if they get the first goal. Marcello Lippi has allowed his boys to go out there and win the game. They are not going to fall back for no-one. He has fielded attack minded formations and utilized attack minded tactics unlike the last few Italian teams that relied too heavily on protecting their own end first and then hoping for goals. This team has the ability to go out, generate chances and score. He has not made one bad substation for the team.
Also, it was obvious that Argentina really made the Germans expend a ton of energy. How big a factor will that be is anyone’s guess. What is for certain though is that the German side ran hard for 120 minutes while Italy put their gears in cruise control against Ukraine as they pretty much had their way with an obviously weaker opponent.
Statistically, Italy has had 63 shots at goal with 35 of those shots landing on goal. They have scored 9 goals meaning they need 3.88 shots on goal for every goal. Germany has put 88 shots at goal landing 43 on target. They have scored 11 goals needing just under 4 shots on goal for every goal. Italy has been slightly more effective in that regard.
The fatigue factor….Packing 5 games into such a short period can have it’s affect. From my analysis, it can be said that Marcello Lippi has used his bench a lot better than the Klinsmann. Heading into this game, Italy has all but 3 players who have played more than 410 minutes so far in this tournament. Cannavaro, (450) Pirlo (427) and Perrotta (450). The rest of the team aren’t even close. Germany on the other hand Arne Fridrich (453) Torsten Frings (449) Klose (408 Phillip Lahm (480) Mertesacker (480) and Podolski ) (443). Fresh legs will be at a premium however it is noteworthy for me at least that Toni has played only 286 minutes, Gilardino 257 minutes and Iaquinta 102. There’s there is always feisty little Inzaghi should he be needed. Lippi has used his bench very well and there are plenty of fresh legs should he need to go to them. I have the suspicion that Italy will try to run at Germany early.
Bulletin Board material…. Germany weekly newspaper Der Spiegel came out with an article late last week that called Italians parasites and slimy. Alessandro Nesta promptly relied, "From fashion to restaurants, we're a population of workers," defender Alessandro Nesta said. "People criticize us, but then they want to dress and eat like us. There's a bit of jealousy.” Gennaro Gattuso said in the press that the article offended his family. Also, Italy will have former player Pesotto on their mind and in their hearts as they did in their last game.
Benito Archundia is the match referee. He’s regarded as a solid referee who knows how to keep control of a game. He’s not a card crazy ref and he does a pretty good job with the flow of the game. He has averaged a mere 3 yellow card per game and has only expelled one player. He also has nearly perfect posture when he issues cards. These are his games.
Croatia vs. Brazil – 4 yellow cards, 0 red cards
Czech Republic vs. Italy – 3 yellow cards, 1 red card
France vs. South Korea – 4 yellow cards, 0 red cards
Ukraine vs. Switzerland – 1 yellow card, 0 red cards
When all is said and done, I can only find 1 real edge to give to Germany which is the obvious home field advantage. I do not feel though, that when all is considered, that it will be enough. Italy should have enough in the tank to get past Germany in what I feel will be an entertaining contest. Italy will advance to the final.
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