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Seattle Mariners/LA Angels Over 8.5
The Angels are showing signs of life and making a run in a bad AL West division where it doesn’t seem like any team wants to own the division. The Angels are on a 4 game winning streak. They’re not winning just on their pitching as they have relied on all season but they’re coupling that with lively bats. In their 4 last games, they’ve scored 9 or more runs in 3 of them and batting as a team well over .300 in those games. In their last 10 games, the over has gone 6-2-2.
The Ms for awhile were on a hot streak and scoring an average of 7+ runs in that span but their bats have cooled a little bit and have been inconsistent. In their last 10 games, the total has gone over 6-3-1. Their pitching has given up 7 or more runs in 3 of their last 4 games.
The Angels send Colon to the mound today who is 0-4 for the season with a 5.77 ERA. The Angels totals have gone over 4-2 when he starts. He’s been inconsistent so far this season where he got tagged for 4 or more runs in 3 of his starts and then held his opponents to 3 runs or less in the other 3 starts. He’s given up 4 and 5 ERs in his last 2 starts and in his last 3, he has an ERA of 4.87, OBP of .370, and a WHIP of 1.62. In his 7 starts against the Ms as an Angel, the total has gone over 6 of the 7 starts and he’s only gone more than 6 innings once. Of the Ms regular lineup, only Sexson and Everett has struggled against him. Everyone else has a .300 average or above against him. Here’s how they matchup:
Suzuki 0.300
Beltre 0.318
Lopez 0.364
Ibanez 0.351
Sexson 0.188
Everett 0.185
Johjima 0.500
Soo Choo
Betancourt 0.429
I like how the number 9 and 1-4 bats have great averages against him increasing the likelihood of them getting a crooked number against Colon as they should go 3 times through the order if he goes 6 innings.
The Ms are sending their ace Moyer to the mound tonight who is 5-7 for the season with a 3.39 ERA. The Angels are batting .316 against lefties in their last 10 games. He’s been pitching great lately holding his opponents to 3 ERs or less in his last 6 starts. He has an average record against the Angels and the Ms have only won once in his last 6 starts at home when he starts against the Angels. In his last 10 starts against them, the total has gone over 7-3. And at home when he starts against the Angels the over is 5-1. Also, in his last 10 starts against them, he has given up 4 or more runs in 6 of those starts and only going more than 6 innings once. In 4 of his last 5 starts against the Angels, he’s given up 4 or more runs. In his last 3 starts against them, he’s given up 9 or more hits averaging about 5-6 innings of work. Of the Angels regular lineup, only Izturis has struggled against him and Morales have never faced him. Everyone else in the lineup is batting over .300 against him. Here’s how the Angels bats fare against him:
Figgins 0.324
Izturis 0.000
Cabrera 0.450
Guerrero 0.370
Anderson 0.316
Rivera 0.670
Morales
Kennedy 0.314
Molina 0.500
What’s amazing is that with these numbers, I’m surprised the Angels haven’t scored more than the 3-4 run average against him. The latest trend seems to be swaying towards a higher average though.
The only thing that concerns me on the over is the Angels pen who have been pretty good all season with a season 4.00 ERA. They’ve only given up 10 ERs in their last 10 games with almost 30 innings of relief equating to a 3.07 ERA. They’ve only given up runs in 4 of their last 10 games. However, in the 11 times they’ve faced the Ms this season, they’ve given up at least a run in 7 of those games. They’re pretty stingy though because they’ve only given up 13 ERs in those games equating to a 3.31 ERA. I’d be happy if they give up at least 1 tonight and even happier if they can give up 2.
The Ms pen, on the other hand, was on a roll for quite some time but are beginning to falter similar to that of earlier in the season. They’ve given up 20 ERs in their last 9 games with 28 innings of relief equating to a 6.43 ERA. They’ve given up runs in 6 of their last 9 games. Just like the Angels pen, they’ve given up at least a run in 7 of the 11 times these two teams have met this season. The difference though is that the Ms pen have given up multiple runs in those games. They’ve given up 2 ERs in 3 of those game and have given 4 or more runs in all the other games. In those 11 games, they’ve given up a total of 30 ERs in about 36 innings of relief equating to a 7.43 ERA.
At a minimum, I see Colon giving up about 3 ERs and Moyer giving up about 4 ERs both with about 6 innings of work. With the batting numbers against the respective starters, I wouldn’t be surprised to see more runs. I would love it if the Angels pen can give up a couple of runs but I like the chances that the Ms pen will give up 2-3 runs (if the total hasn't gone over yet) to finish off the over for me as the Angels look to add insurance while the Ms play come from behind.
The Angels are showing signs of life and making a run in a bad AL West division where it doesn’t seem like any team wants to own the division. The Angels are on a 4 game winning streak. They’re not winning just on their pitching as they have relied on all season but they’re coupling that with lively bats. In their 4 last games, they’ve scored 9 or more runs in 3 of them and batting as a team well over .300 in those games. In their last 10 games, the over has gone 6-2-2.
The Ms for awhile were on a hot streak and scoring an average of 7+ runs in that span but their bats have cooled a little bit and have been inconsistent. In their last 10 games, the total has gone over 6-3-1. Their pitching has given up 7 or more runs in 3 of their last 4 games.
The Angels send Colon to the mound today who is 0-4 for the season with a 5.77 ERA. The Angels totals have gone over 4-2 when he starts. He’s been inconsistent so far this season where he got tagged for 4 or more runs in 3 of his starts and then held his opponents to 3 runs or less in the other 3 starts. He’s given up 4 and 5 ERs in his last 2 starts and in his last 3, he has an ERA of 4.87, OBP of .370, and a WHIP of 1.62. In his 7 starts against the Ms as an Angel, the total has gone over 6 of the 7 starts and he’s only gone more than 6 innings once. Of the Ms regular lineup, only Sexson and Everett has struggled against him. Everyone else has a .300 average or above against him. Here’s how they matchup:
Suzuki 0.300
Beltre 0.318
Lopez 0.364
Ibanez 0.351
Sexson 0.188
Everett 0.185
Johjima 0.500
Soo Choo
Betancourt 0.429
I like how the number 9 and 1-4 bats have great averages against him increasing the likelihood of them getting a crooked number against Colon as they should go 3 times through the order if he goes 6 innings.
The Ms are sending their ace Moyer to the mound tonight who is 5-7 for the season with a 3.39 ERA. The Angels are batting .316 against lefties in their last 10 games. He’s been pitching great lately holding his opponents to 3 ERs or less in his last 6 starts. He has an average record against the Angels and the Ms have only won once in his last 6 starts at home when he starts against the Angels. In his last 10 starts against them, the total has gone over 7-3. And at home when he starts against the Angels the over is 5-1. Also, in his last 10 starts against them, he has given up 4 or more runs in 6 of those starts and only going more than 6 innings once. In 4 of his last 5 starts against the Angels, he’s given up 4 or more runs. In his last 3 starts against them, he’s given up 9 or more hits averaging about 5-6 innings of work. Of the Angels regular lineup, only Izturis has struggled against him and Morales have never faced him. Everyone else in the lineup is batting over .300 against him. Here’s how the Angels bats fare against him:
Figgins 0.324
Izturis 0.000
Cabrera 0.450
Guerrero 0.370
Anderson 0.316
Rivera 0.670
Morales
Kennedy 0.314
Molina 0.500
What’s amazing is that with these numbers, I’m surprised the Angels haven’t scored more than the 3-4 run average against him. The latest trend seems to be swaying towards a higher average though.
The only thing that concerns me on the over is the Angels pen who have been pretty good all season with a season 4.00 ERA. They’ve only given up 10 ERs in their last 10 games with almost 30 innings of relief equating to a 3.07 ERA. They’ve only given up runs in 4 of their last 10 games. However, in the 11 times they’ve faced the Ms this season, they’ve given up at least a run in 7 of those games. They’re pretty stingy though because they’ve only given up 13 ERs in those games equating to a 3.31 ERA. I’d be happy if they give up at least 1 tonight and even happier if they can give up 2.
The Ms pen, on the other hand, was on a roll for quite some time but are beginning to falter similar to that of earlier in the season. They’ve given up 20 ERs in their last 9 games with 28 innings of relief equating to a 6.43 ERA. They’ve given up runs in 6 of their last 9 games. Just like the Angels pen, they’ve given up at least a run in 7 of the 11 times these two teams have met this season. The difference though is that the Ms pen have given up multiple runs in those games. They’ve given up 2 ERs in 3 of those game and have given 4 or more runs in all the other games. In those 11 games, they’ve given up a total of 30 ERs in about 36 innings of relief equating to a 7.43 ERA.
At a minimum, I see Colon giving up about 3 ERs and Moyer giving up about 4 ERs both with about 6 innings of work. With the batting numbers against the respective starters, I wouldn’t be surprised to see more runs. I would love it if the Angels pen can give up a couple of runs but I like the chances that the Ms pen will give up 2-3 runs (if the total hasn't gone over yet) to finish off the over for me as the Angels look to add insurance while the Ms play come from behind.