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San Fran @ Minnesota (MIN -1.5)
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The Vikings should be commended on their 3-0 start, but they’ve beaten 3 teams (GB, Chi, and Det) that have a combined 2-8 record with those 2 wins coming against other bad teams (GB beat Det and Det beat Ariz). I do rate the Vikes as a better than average team, but San Francisco is better than their 1-2 record with both losses coming by 3 points or less. The 49ers’ offense isn’t anything special so far this season (5.2 yards per play against teams that have allowed a combined 5.4 yppl on defense), but San Francisco’s emerging defense has been great. The Niners have given up just 3.6 yppl in 3 games, which is good even when considering that they’ve faced teams that have averaged only 4.1 yppl on offense combined. Minnesota is a good offensive team (6.0 yppl against teams that allow 5.5 yppl), but the 49ers held St. Louis to just 4.3 yppl on the road and they can contain Minnesota’s attack too. The Vikings are certainly better defensively this season, but their solid defensive numbers (4.7 yppl allowed) have come against teams that have combined to average only 4.4 yppl on offense. The 49ers ought to get their offense going a bit in this game while the defense continues to play well. San Francisco also qualifies in a 134-72-11 ATS contrary angle and teams that lose straight up as favorites of more than 6 points are 108-60-6 ATS as an underdog in their next game (San Francisco qualifies in an 87-28-5 ATS subset of that angle). Minnesota, meanwhile qualifies in a negative situation, as winning teams that have won and covered back-to-back games against division rivals are just 24-52 ATS when favored by more than 3 points against a losing team. However, the Vikings also have some history on their side, as teams that start the season 3-0 straight up and 3-0 ATS are 17-3 ATS at home in week 4 (13-0 ATS if not favored by more than 6 points). Culpepper?. Overall, the situations probably favor the 49ers a bit and my ratings favor Minnesota by just 2 points.
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The 49ers are having problems....with Owens bitching and whatever else...I really think the Vikes are for real this season...They beat GB at home on opening weekend...(GB is 1-2, but they are a very solid team at home) The Vikes are riding a high right now, dome will be rocking....(Yes, I am a homer ;) lol) but I still like the Vikes to win this one!
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