NFL Picks Week 1

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YTD (0-0)

Gonna throw out this first pick for Thursdays game and then post the rest of the weekends plays later.

THURSDAY

Miami -1 vs. Pittsburgh

I dont see how you dont take Miami, its either you take em, or dont play this game IMO. Pitt is coming in with a completely different makeup. They were all over the map during the offseason. Miami got better through the year and finished the season as the hottest team. They got rid of their cancer and are now primed to make a run at New England's East. Teams that finish a season strong generally continue the following year and contend for playoff spots and thats what Miami will do. Im a big C-Pep guy and I think last year was just an abberation, They now look to have one of the strongest offenses in the AFC with a top receiver, tight end, and an underrated rookie RB who will probably be better than his counterpart Cadillac Williams.
Im not laying big $$ on it, but Miami is the pick. No Rothlesburger = No scoring for Pitt.
Hopefully they start the year off right, I know its hard picking the SB champ to lose their first game the following year, but hey shit happens.

[lxorl]

i made a parlay

i took miami at -1.5

and

the under of 34.5

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Atlanta +5.5 vs. Carolina

Carolina comes into the season for the third year in a row as everybodys favorite to go back to the superbowl. John Fox is supposed to be one the coaching geniouses in the NFL, Steve Smith is the best wide receiver, The defense can stop anybody on the other side of the field...ya ya ya. Steve Smith looks to be a no-go and even if he does go, I dont think he'll be able to play like how Hines Ward played on Thursday coming of a supposed injury. Team officials are saying how other guys will be ready to go if called, so it doesnt seem as if they feel he will play. The Panther running game is the worst its been in years, Deshaun Foster has never been reliable, often injured, he may have a huge game one week and then you dont hear about him for 2 more weeks. They also have a new center this year, which is never good in the first game of the year. The strength of Atlanta's defense is the defensive line which is why Atlanta led the league in sacks 2 years ago. Lately Carolina has had their way with Atlanta and Vick doesnt seem to get in any rhythm against these guys, but still this is a divisional game and 6 points is way too many. I like the new addition of Lelie, If Vick cant move up the field with his arm this year, there is no excuses because they have a good young receiving corps. The addition of John Abrahams should be visible out there on Sunday and the subtraction of TJ should not. Im going to go with the number 1 rushing team that just upgraded their passing attack to keep it close on Sunday.

Cinncinatti +2 vs. Kansas City

So i guess the books are not sold on The Bengals and do not recognize their steady 3 year improvement. Carson Palmer has arrived and will be the best QB in the AFC when Tom and Peyton start to decline in a few years. Im looking for Chad Johnson to have an MVP type season with Palmers improvement. In preseason, it seems as if CP hasnt missed a beat and has fully recovered. This team has no offensive question marks, the defense however....well atleast the picked up Dexter Jackson and Sam Adams, which should hold them down enough to make some strides this year. On the Other side of the field there are a million question marks...How will the players respond to a new playbook ? Will Larry Johnson be successful with the key losses on the O-Line ? Will Trent Green Be ? Green is entering his 13th season, will he still be able to throw the ball at this level ? I dont know about this team, everybody wants to hype the fact that the defensive minded Herm will change this team around, but i think there will be growing pains. I dont see any improvement on their team during the offseason at all and in this league if you dont improve, you step back. People always look at KC like their a running team, but their huge on passing and are usually top 5. Cinnci doesnt really get to the QB, but they do pick him off. This should be a fun game, and I know Arrowhead is huge for KC, but Cinnci is clearlyt a better team.

Baltimore +3.5 vs. Tampa Bay

Baltimore has always had the defense to win games and they normally keep it close in loses losing 4 games last year by 4 points or less. Now they have a QB, who when in that type of situation with ball and 2 or 3 minutes left can bring you down the field and actually win it for you, which Boller just could do for them last year. This is also a reunion of sorts with Air McNair and Derrick Mason who is still able to put up numbers as he threw up 86 for over 1200 last year. The running attack could be the best 2 headed monster in the game right now with Anderson and Lewis. Tampa is no slouch here either, bringing back most of the same players on the #1 defense in the NFL last year (technically). I really dont like Simms though as a player, and against a defense like Baltimore's I expect him to have trouble. Cadillac was seeing the machanic for most of the 2nd half of the year as he didnt make any noise at all, The guy had 700 yards in his last 11 games for an average of 63 ypg. I think the Bucs played in over their heads last year as pre-season predictions had them winning 5-6 games the most. Now those same experts have them winning 10 easy. Well, I still think they have to prove themselves, they do have a nice young core, and are supposed to win a home game like this, but I think The Ravens have more of a chip on their shoulder and will to win, should be tight.

Philly -5.5 vs. Houston

Houston we have a problem ! I was actually thinking that you know what, eventhough they didnt grab Bush, the fact that they have a good young back in DD will fill that void and it could make them better in having one of the best rated ends to come out of the draft in years. Now with virtually no running game, the same horrid offensive line, you gotta believe that The Eagles are going to get at Carr who is used to seeing the ground. The Eagles are out to prove that last year was a fluke, and need to play a team like Houston for their first game. McNabb is back to full strength and that is a problem as he is the 3rd most winningest QB over the last 5 years, he's also got a replacement for TO in Stallworth. I look for the offense to be close to as it was 2 years ago and they should be able to put up over 21 points in this contest. Houston on the other hand will be hard pressed to show more than 2 TD's on sunday. They should be better than last year and depending on when DD will be back they may be in every contest they play, but the season will start rocky for them against The Eagles.



Green Bay/Chicago Under 35

Washington -5

Oakland +3.5

Indy -3

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6-0 yesterday with 2 coming tonite. :)

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My Washington writeup:

Let me say one thing first. Forget the preseason when it comes to the Redskins. Joe Gibbs doesn’t give a shit about preseason. Even in their years of winning Super Bowls regularly, the Redskins never show a thing in preseason. Ok, now that that’s out of the way let’s talk about the game.

Portis isn’t playing tonight. We know that. A lot of hype is surrounding TJ Duckett, be he isn’t the guy who will carry the load. Ladell Betts is the guy who will be running the football tonight. He’s been looking for a chance to prove he can be a number one back somewhere, even if it’s outside of Washington and tonight he gets the spotlight. I wasn’t a fan of signing Duckett, because Betts is a more than capable back. I think he could start on about 10 teams in the NFL and be a strong number one back.

A mismatch will occur with the Skins receivers and Minny’s secondary if Brunell has time to pass. Honestly, I think this will be the key to the game. Specifically will Jon Jansen be able to rebound from his thumb injuries last year and contain Kenechi Udeze trying to collapse the pocket. I still think Jansen can provide decent protection, and with Moss, Lloyd, and occasionally Randle –El at receiver, I think quick slants should be an option even if Brunell is under the gun a bit. Minny doesn’t have the most ferocious pass rush in the world, and if they don’t pressure Brunell, Saunders new offense could have a really big day. Also, reports have Viking corner Fred Smoot (one of my all time favorite Redskins listed as questionable). Trust me, Smootie wouldn’t miss this one for all the bachelor parties on yachts in the world. He’ll be there.

Redskins secondary is a little banged up with Springs not playing, but who does Minny have at receiver to take advantage? Carlos Rogers is a solid corner, and Mike Rumph and Kenny Wright may get exploited next week, but against Minny they should be fine.

Washington had a solid Defense vs. the run last year, and I don’t see them having issues stopping Chester Taylor or Tony Richardson.

Enough blabber on this one, I like Washington to get it done tonight, early and often. Another fact I should bring up is the Vikings record outdoors. You should never take a dome team playing outside, and Minny is no exception. Honestly, why would you back a team that isn’t used to the elements, especially when they are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games played outdoors?

Washington by 10 ish

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My Oakland writeup:

Raiders +3: The Raiders will pull off the upset tonight, with Aaron Brooks having a good debut for his new team. I just cannot see Phillip Rivers making his first start on a national stage in probably the craziest atmosphere in the NFL having a good gam tongiht. Im going to side with the experiece here. Randy Moss had a down year last year, that will not happen again. Look for Moss to come ou and make big plays tonight, we are going to to see the Randy Moss we are used to seeing. Last year the Raiders made a lot of stupid mistakes that cost them a lot of games (147 penalties, leading the league), but under the disciplinarian, Art Shell, that will not be a problem this year. The Raiders will put 8 in the box tonight to stop Tomlinson and make Rivers beat them with his arm, which could pose problems for the Chargers. I think the Chargers are good team, but Rivers is going to need a little time to wet his feet. The Raiders will try to confuse Rivers with a lot of exotic defenses. If the Chargers are going to win this game, Rivers will have to beat them with his arm. And thats not going to happen. Raiders pull the upset off in a close game in the night cap of the double header.