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YTD (3-5)
Couple of surprises last week cost me some money. Utah laid an egg and Ohio State let off the gas too soon. I knew that Tennessee was going to roll. Should have laid more on them. Anyway, on to this weeks games.
Ohio State/Texas OVER 51
I have been waiting on this games total for awhile and love it. I think OSU can and will rack up around 30 on any team they play. With that being said, Texas still definately has the ability to score and to score quick. I look for Texas to take advantage of OSUs youth on defense and for OSU to use their speed (Gonzalez, Pittman, Ginn, Smith, Oneil, Mo Wells) to score on the offensive side of the ball. I see this game being a 38-28 or 38-35 type game. Momentum will be huge in this game and I expect several big plays. I havent gotten my writeup done yet on the side that I am playing but will post it in its own thread.
Northern Illinois -14
I also wanted to see this games line right after the thrashing OSU gave NIU. Ohio beat Tennessee Martin 29-3 this past weakend. The offense only scored 14 points against this weak small school(safety and defensive TD led to 9 points). I like NIU to come out and dominate every facet of this game. I think they are being under-valued big time by the books because of the way OSU handled them. In reality they have a Top 3 back and a QB that lead the nation in completion percentage a year ago. Before looking more into Ohio, I look for this game to get real ugly real quick!
Akron + 10
Akron took it on the chin last week BUT they did impress me. Even though they got down early, they stayed composed and stayed in the game. NC State needed the whole game to handle the Appalachian Mountaineers 23-10. NC State only amassed 242 yards of offense against this team. I think Akron, behind Luke Getsky (1 of the most undervalued NFL type QB around IMO), has a shot to win this game SU.
CAL - 8.5
CAL comes off a game in which they were dominated by Tennessee. All factors were against them and I played Tenn. The way they were dominated, I did not really predict though. It seemed as if 1 thing went wrong and then it snow balled (which usually happens to a team that is not used to playing in that type of environment). Like NIU, I think they are being undervalued. They get to return home and play a Minnesota team that is not that good IMO. Yes Minnesota beat up on Kent BUT it definately could have been a lot closer. A couple mistakes made a potential 17-10 halftime game 17-0. From my perspective, Kent played even with them in the first half. The factors going against CAL last week are going in their favor this week. Minnesota must travel across the country to play a good team. I stated before that I thought CAL would lose week 1 and then run the table- not sure if that will happen but I expect them to get up in the Gophers.
Rutgers/Illinois Over 49
Rutgers gave up 402 yards to a Carolina team that is supposed to struggle. 169 of those yards were on the ground. Ilinois rushed for 345 yards for over 7 yards a carry. Rutgers rushed or 5.3 yards a carry and Raymell Rice had 201 yards on the ground! Illinois is supposed to have a weak defense and Rutgers should have a good offense this year. The over looks tasty...
Clemson - 1.5
BC does not really exhibit the best home field advantage - not a huge fan base. Clemson finished the year with 4 wins(including FSU and a bowl win). Last week they started where they left off a season ago crushing FAU. BC snuck by a Central Michigan team- they were pretty close to even in yards and got out rushed by CMU. I think Clemson's run to the ACC championship will start with a victory in Bean town....
Kent State + 6
Michael Machen is Kent's starting QB. He returns after an up and down year. He has talent (was at Alabama for a year before he decided to play minor league baseball) and can be a viable QB. He is athletic and has size (6'6" 235). The Golden Flashes have two sub 4.4 backs (Sophomore Tony Howard and Freshman Eugene Jarvis). These speedy backs, along with 4 returning WRs should cause all types of problems for this Army defense. Army comes into this game after getting beat by a 1AA school. And I can already hear people saying well ASU is not a bad team, they have not lost a home game in.... Guys they are a 1AA school bottom line. Army's QB, the only one that played, only threw for 92 yards! They only had 69 yards on the ground and their leading rusher had 35! BOTTOM LINE: People point to the Kent game against Minnesota and say "look how they got handled". The score at half time was 17-0 but could have easily have been 17-10 (Kent dropped(fumbled) a TD through the end zone and missed a 20 yard FG). I think Kent will come out and dominate every facet of the game. Kent is the play here.
Oregon State - 8
I like this play a lot. I think the biggest info with both of these teams is that they both return many players. But the big thing is that OSU is the Pac 10 returning players that have played in big environments(not saying this will be one) and know what it takes to beat a good team.
Pitt/ Cinci UNDER 45
Though I ultimately think Pitt should cover this spread, I am not to confident laying 8 on the road. This is a night game and a national televised game so the crowd should be drunk and ready to party. With that being said, I think this total is very high for these teams. Both teams have decent defenses that can control these opposing offenses. The nati's offense is pretty bad. Their line is terrible (40 sacks and only 3.2 per carry last year). If you have a bad line that can't run block you would think pass right? Well the weakest part of their O is their WR. Pitt's offense pretty similar at skill positions as Cinci's. Bottom Line: Both teams exhibit decent defenses. Neither offense has the speed for big plays. I look for both teams to try and control the clock and move the ball at their normal slow pace.
Wake Forest -19
OK I know Wake did not look all that impressive against Syracuse last week and their starting QB will not play. This play is more about Duke than it is about Wake. Duke got shut out last week. Yeah I know, who cares it is nothing new.....and oh yeah it was against a D2 school. Bottom Line: Duke is terrible. They put up 210 yards against Richmond. Wake gets to play in front of their home crowd and should look to make up for last week.
OK State -13.5
I am tired of being repetitive in these write ups but Arkansas State is a D2 school. This is not a home game for either team as they will both travel. I look for this game to get ugly- AKS backers or fans please write something to support your team here. I know about the home streak but like I said this is away from home. Someone made a good point (Sooners I believe) that OK State will probably have more traveling fans than AKS.
Va. Tech. - 12.5
Not much to say about this game. I just saw how Rutgers beat UNC and I expect V-Tech to do much of the same. A power ranking a saw had this game at a -26. Trend people....VTECH is 16-6 in their last 22 as a favorite ATS and 8-1 ATS on the road in their last 9.
Couple of surprises last week cost me some money. Utah laid an egg and Ohio State let off the gas too soon. I knew that Tennessee was going to roll. Should have laid more on them. Anyway, on to this weeks games.
Ohio State/Texas OVER 51
I have been waiting on this games total for awhile and love it. I think OSU can and will rack up around 30 on any team they play. With that being said, Texas still definately has the ability to score and to score quick. I look for Texas to take advantage of OSUs youth on defense and for OSU to use their speed (Gonzalez, Pittman, Ginn, Smith, Oneil, Mo Wells) to score on the offensive side of the ball. I see this game being a 38-28 or 38-35 type game. Momentum will be huge in this game and I expect several big plays. I havent gotten my writeup done yet on the side that I am playing but will post it in its own thread.
Northern Illinois -14
I also wanted to see this games line right after the thrashing OSU gave NIU. Ohio beat Tennessee Martin 29-3 this past weakend. The offense only scored 14 points against this weak small school(safety and defensive TD led to 9 points). I like NIU to come out and dominate every facet of this game. I think they are being under-valued big time by the books because of the way OSU handled them. In reality they have a Top 3 back and a QB that lead the nation in completion percentage a year ago. Before looking more into Ohio, I look for this game to get real ugly real quick!
Akron + 10
Akron took it on the chin last week BUT they did impress me. Even though they got down early, they stayed composed and stayed in the game. NC State needed the whole game to handle the Appalachian Mountaineers 23-10. NC State only amassed 242 yards of offense against this team. I think Akron, behind Luke Getsky (1 of the most undervalued NFL type QB around IMO), has a shot to win this game SU.
CAL - 8.5
CAL comes off a game in which they were dominated by Tennessee. All factors were against them and I played Tenn. The way they were dominated, I did not really predict though. It seemed as if 1 thing went wrong and then it snow balled (which usually happens to a team that is not used to playing in that type of environment). Like NIU, I think they are being undervalued. They get to return home and play a Minnesota team that is not that good IMO. Yes Minnesota beat up on Kent BUT it definately could have been a lot closer. A couple mistakes made a potential 17-10 halftime game 17-0. From my perspective, Kent played even with them in the first half. The factors going against CAL last week are going in their favor this week. Minnesota must travel across the country to play a good team. I stated before that I thought CAL would lose week 1 and then run the table- not sure if that will happen but I expect them to get up in the Gophers.
Rutgers/Illinois Over 49
Rutgers gave up 402 yards to a Carolina team that is supposed to struggle. 169 of those yards were on the ground. Ilinois rushed for 345 yards for over 7 yards a carry. Rutgers rushed or 5.3 yards a carry and Raymell Rice had 201 yards on the ground! Illinois is supposed to have a weak defense and Rutgers should have a good offense this year. The over looks tasty...
Clemson - 1.5
BC does not really exhibit the best home field advantage - not a huge fan base. Clemson finished the year with 4 wins(including FSU and a bowl win). Last week they started where they left off a season ago crushing FAU. BC snuck by a Central Michigan team- they were pretty close to even in yards and got out rushed by CMU. I think Clemson's run to the ACC championship will start with a victory in Bean town....
Kent State + 6
Michael Machen is Kent's starting QB. He returns after an up and down year. He has talent (was at Alabama for a year before he decided to play minor league baseball) and can be a viable QB. He is athletic and has size (6'6" 235). The Golden Flashes have two sub 4.4 backs (Sophomore Tony Howard and Freshman Eugene Jarvis). These speedy backs, along with 4 returning WRs should cause all types of problems for this Army defense. Army comes into this game after getting beat by a 1AA school. And I can already hear people saying well ASU is not a bad team, they have not lost a home game in.... Guys they are a 1AA school bottom line. Army's QB, the only one that played, only threw for 92 yards! They only had 69 yards on the ground and their leading rusher had 35! BOTTOM LINE: People point to the Kent game against Minnesota and say "look how they got handled". The score at half time was 17-0 but could have easily have been 17-10 (Kent dropped(fumbled) a TD through the end zone and missed a 20 yard FG). I think Kent will come out and dominate every facet of the game. Kent is the play here.
Oregon State - 8
I like this play a lot. I think the biggest info with both of these teams is that they both return many players. But the big thing is that OSU is the Pac 10 returning players that have played in big environments(not saying this will be one) and know what it takes to beat a good team.
Pitt/ Cinci UNDER 45
Though I ultimately think Pitt should cover this spread, I am not to confident laying 8 on the road. This is a night game and a national televised game so the crowd should be drunk and ready to party. With that being said, I think this total is very high for these teams. Both teams have decent defenses that can control these opposing offenses. The nati's offense is pretty bad. Their line is terrible (40 sacks and only 3.2 per carry last year). If you have a bad line that can't run block you would think pass right? Well the weakest part of their O is their WR. Pitt's offense pretty similar at skill positions as Cinci's. Bottom Line: Both teams exhibit decent defenses. Neither offense has the speed for big plays. I look for both teams to try and control the clock and move the ball at their normal slow pace.
Wake Forest -19
OK I know Wake did not look all that impressive against Syracuse last week and their starting QB will not play. This play is more about Duke than it is about Wake. Duke got shut out last week. Yeah I know, who cares it is nothing new.....and oh yeah it was against a D2 school. Bottom Line: Duke is terrible. They put up 210 yards against Richmond. Wake gets to play in front of their home crowd and should look to make up for last week.
OK State -13.5
I am tired of being repetitive in these write ups but Arkansas State is a D2 school. This is not a home game for either team as they will both travel. I look for this game to get ugly- AKS backers or fans please write something to support your team here. I know about the home streak but like I said this is away from home. Someone made a good point (Sooners I believe) that OK State will probably have more traveling fans than AKS.
Va. Tech. - 12.5
Not much to say about this game. I just saw how Rutgers beat UNC and I expect V-Tech to do much of the same. A power ranking a saw had this game at a -26. Trend people....VTECH is 16-6 in their last 22 as a favorite ATS and 8-1 ATS on the road in their last 9.