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The Panthers are a surprising 2-0 and have had a week to get over their upset win over Tampa Bay, so I do expect them to be emotionally ready for the Falcons. While the Panthers are a legitimate team, they are still sub-par offensively and haven’t played as well defensively as I expected them to. Carolina has averaged only 4.0 yards per play in their two wins (against Jacksonville and Tampa, who allow a combined 4.3 yppl on defense) and I don’t expect them to take full advantage of a Falcons’ defense that has surrendered 5.9 yppl (to teams that average 5.5 yppl) and can’t defend the pass (7.1 yards per pass play allowed). Panthers’ new quarterback Jake Delhomme has completed less than 50% of his passes and averaged just 4.5 yppp, so I’m not sure if he can exploit that weakness. Carolina will be able to run the ball with Stephen Davis (127 yards per game at 4.6 ypr) against an Atlanta defensive front that’s allowed 4.4 ypr, but their conservative attack isn’t likely to generate too many points. Atlanta’s offense has averaged just 4.3 yppl, but they’ve faced 3 good defensive teams in Dallas, Washington, and Tampa Bay, who combine to allow just 4.4 yppl on defense. Carolina’s defense was great last year, but they haven’t showed the same level of excellence yet, allowing 5.1 yppl in their two wins to Jacksonville and Tampa offensive units that combine to average 4.9 yppl. Carolina still has the league’s best special teams, which I rate as 4 ½ points better than average, and my ratings favor the Panthers by 6 points overall. While the line is fair, I’ll lean with Atlanta based on a decent 101-55-6 ATS road underdog bounce-back situation.
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