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Teams that start the season 3-0 straight up and 3-0 ATS are just 4-18-1 ATS on the road in their 4th game if they are not an underdog of at least 3 points, so the Colts are not in a particularly good spot to cover in this game. That angle works in part due to the line value and the Saints certainly would have been favored had this game been played on opening day. You can certainly make an argument that the Saints should be favored now anyway, as the Colts haven’t been that impressive from the line of scrimmage in their 3 victories, averaging a modest 4.8 yards per play (against teams that allow 5.0 yppl) while allowing 4.7 yppl on defense (to teams that combine to average just 4.6 yppl on offense). New Orleans, meanwhile, has averaged 4.9 yppl (to teams that allow 5.1 yppl) while also giving up 4.7 yppl on defense (but to teams that average 5.0 yppl on offense). The Saints have been hurt by a -4 in fumble margin while the Colts are +2 in that category, which is purely random and has no predictive value. The fumbles have made the Colts look better than they are while making the Saints appear worse than they are, and New Orleans has the advantage if the fumbles are even in this game. The Saints do qualify in a negative 24-57-2 ATS game 4 angle, but that angle is 3-1-1 ATS against a road team that is 3-0 straight up and ATS, so the Colts’ are in a more negative spot. The Colts’ Edgerrin James is questionable with a bad back, but I will make this call assuming he will play and I’ll go with New Orleans based on the value that the disparate results of the first 3 weeks have created.
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