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The Jaguars are a complete mystery. They’ve played 3 pretty good teams and have averaged 4.9 yards per play while allowing 4.9 yppl, are +1 in turnover margin, but are somehow 0-3 while losing by an average of 11 points. If Jacksonville gives the same level of performance in this game, they ought to beat the 1-2 Texans, who have are clearly better offensively this year, averaging a decent 4.9 yppl (against teams that allow an average of just 4.7 yppl), but haven’t been as good on the defensive side of the ball (allowing 5.8 yppl to teams that average 5.3 yppl on offense). Houston’s poor defensive effort in their 14-42 loss to the Chiefs last week sets them up in a negative 89-171-5 ATS situation while Jacksonville’s loss puts them in a positive 81-33-1 ATS road bounce-back situation. It isn’t all positive for the Jags, however, as 0-3 teams are only 11-28-1 ATS in game 4 when not an underdog of more than 4 points, but the record is 2-0 ATS for such teams when the 81-33-1 ATS situation also applies. The teams that Jacksonville has lost to – Carolina, Buffalo, and Indianapolis - are a combined 7-1 straight up and the Jags are certainly better than an 0-3 team and should be better than Houston today.
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