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College Bowl Record (5-3)
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I completely underestimated Florida States desire while capping the game yesterday. It cost me a bunch in doing so. I am going to have to buckle down and really think things out for the remainder. 3 games on tap today. First lets talk San Diego.
Bowl: Holiday Bowl
Teams: Texas A&M vs. Cal
Line: Cal -5.5
My Play: Texas a&m plus the 5 1/2
Amount: 550 to win 500
Setting the stage
- Cal on a slide since mid-October; 0-5 L5 ATS; Bigger picture they are 8-13-1L22 ATS and they have peaked IMO - As Dennis Green would say - "They are who we thought they are".
- Tex AM 8-2-1 ATS this yr and 19-13-1 L33...They are a team on a roll and improving IMO
- Motivation ? Always the biggest guess during bowl season; Slight edge to Tex AM - they have a winning season and winning a bowl game in their "goal pyramid" - we don't make this up !...Cal earned a share of the Pac 10 title (even though they lost to USC) and have already reached their goal IMO (a guess !)
- Cal is playing close to home; Potential edge here but Tex AM 4-0 SU and ATS on the road this yr
- MEGLOCKS power ratings have the fair spread at Cal -2; Both teams are healthy
- Cal played a slightly tougher schedule (per Sagarin and per opp win %); Coaching even IMO
Edge to Tex AM
- superb balanced run game (Goodson,Lane,McGee) and QB that makes few mistakes (2 INT !)
- Cal QB Longshore is inconsistent and makes more mistakes (12 INT) and poor throws
- Tex AM's 3 losses came by a combined 6 pts; Have the best quality win IMO winning at Texas
- Cal D is 10th in Pac 10 in yds per play defense
- Tex AM gets stronger as the game goes on; 170-79 in 2nd half (Cal 127-125)
- Tex AM is 2nd in the NCAA in KO returns; Cal is 106nd in KO return D; Field position edge here to AM
- Tex AM solid in 3rd down conversions offense (51%! - ncaa rank 5) and D (29% ! - rank 6)
Cal brings stuff to the table
- RB Lynch is a beast; 1245 yds, 6 yds a pop, 9 TD and he missed time
- WR Jackson is explosive in the passing game and had a Hester-like 4 punt return TDs; AM is 14th in net punting but 82 in yds per punt return; It is very likely Jackson takes one to the house again on STeams
- Cal is explosive; 25 scores in less than 2 min; 55 plays of 20+; Good at protecting the QB - will hit some big plays
A Wash
- coaching, punting, place kicking; Cal edge in punt returns/AM in ko returns = even
- even in turnover ratio (+6 Cal, +9 AM)
- neither great at rushing the passer
Meaningless (?) but interesting
- Pac 10 on a 37-10 ATS bowl run...but...Dog 9-0 L9 ATS in Holiday Bowl
- Favs 24-41L 65 ATS in pre-newyears bowl games L3Y
Prediction: Tex AM 31 Cal 27
+$1860
I completely underestimated Florida States desire while capping the game yesterday. It cost me a bunch in doing so. I am going to have to buckle down and really think things out for the remainder. 3 games on tap today. First lets talk San Diego.
Bowl: Holiday Bowl
Teams: Texas A&M vs. Cal
Line: Cal -5.5
My Play: Texas a&m plus the 5 1/2
Amount: 550 to win 500
Setting the stage
- Cal on a slide since mid-October; 0-5 L5 ATS; Bigger picture they are 8-13-1L22 ATS and they have peaked IMO - As Dennis Green would say - "They are who we thought they are".
- Tex AM 8-2-1 ATS this yr and 19-13-1 L33...They are a team on a roll and improving IMO
- Motivation ? Always the biggest guess during bowl season; Slight edge to Tex AM - they have a winning season and winning a bowl game in their "goal pyramid" - we don't make this up !...Cal earned a share of the Pac 10 title (even though they lost to USC) and have already reached their goal IMO (a guess !)
- Cal is playing close to home; Potential edge here but Tex AM 4-0 SU and ATS on the road this yr
- MEGLOCKS power ratings have the fair spread at Cal -2; Both teams are healthy
- Cal played a slightly tougher schedule (per Sagarin and per opp win %); Coaching even IMO
Edge to Tex AM
- superb balanced run game (Goodson,Lane,McGee) and QB that makes few mistakes (2 INT !)
- Cal QB Longshore is inconsistent and makes more mistakes (12 INT) and poor throws
- Tex AM's 3 losses came by a combined 6 pts; Have the best quality win IMO winning at Texas
- Cal D is 10th in Pac 10 in yds per play defense
- Tex AM gets stronger as the game goes on; 170-79 in 2nd half (Cal 127-125)
- Tex AM is 2nd in the NCAA in KO returns; Cal is 106nd in KO return D; Field position edge here to AM
- Tex AM solid in 3rd down conversions offense (51%! - ncaa rank 5) and D (29% ! - rank 6)
Cal brings stuff to the table
- RB Lynch is a beast; 1245 yds, 6 yds a pop, 9 TD and he missed time
- WR Jackson is explosive in the passing game and had a Hester-like 4 punt return TDs; AM is 14th in net punting but 82 in yds per punt return; It is very likely Jackson takes one to the house again on STeams
- Cal is explosive; 25 scores in less than 2 min; 55 plays of 20+; Good at protecting the QB - will hit some big plays
A Wash
- coaching, punting, place kicking; Cal edge in punt returns/AM in ko returns = even
- even in turnover ratio (+6 Cal, +9 AM)
- neither great at rushing the passer
Meaningless (?) but interesting
- Pac 10 on a 37-10 ATS bowl run...but...Dog 9-0 L9 ATS in Holiday Bowl
- Favs 24-41L 65 ATS in pre-newyears bowl games L3Y
Prediction: Tex AM 31 Cal 27