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College Bowl Record (7-4)
+$2710 (2 games pending)
Bowl: Liberty Bowl
Teams: Houston vs. South Carolina
Line: South Carolina -7
My Play: Houston plus the touchdown
Amount: 550 to win 500
Thoughts: Both of these teams are better now than they were earlier in the season and the offensive units should control this game against a pair of mediocre defensive teams. With that being the case, I certainly don’t mind taking the points with a Houston team that is led by a 4 year starting quarterback in Kevin Kolb that rarely makes mistakes (just 3 interceptions all season). Kolb had another fantastic season and averaged 7.6 yards per pass play (against teams that would combine to allow 6.9 yppp to an average quarterback) to go along with his incredible TD to interception ratio of 27 to 3. Houston’s offense got better in mid-season when speedy receiver Anthony Alridge was converted to running back to share duties with bulldozing back Jackie Battle (858 yards at 5.0 ypr). Alridge broke big runs in practically every game he played at running back and finished the season with 904 yards at an amazing 10.6 ypr, including averages of 112 yards at 10.2 ypr in 6 games at running back. Houston’s offense rates at 1.1 yards per play better than average with Alridge sharing running duties with Battle. That attack should have no trouble moving the ball against a mediocre South Carolina defense that has allowed 5.5 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average defensive team. The 3 best offensive teams that South Carolina faced were Arkansas, Florida, and Clemson, each of whom the Gamecocks played in the final 4 weeks of the season. Those 3 teams combine to rate at 1.1 yppl better than average offensive (the same as Houston) and they combined to average 7.2 yppl against South Carolina – so the Gamecocks played even worse than normal defensively against really good offensive teams like Houston. South Carolina was competitive in those games because their offense was playing better than ever with Blake Mitchell back at quarterback after Syvelle Newton was moved to defensive safety. Mitchell ended the season averaging a robust 8.0 yppp despite facing defenses that would combine to allow just 5.5 yppp to an average quarterback. With Mitchell at quarterback the Gamecocks rate at 1.6 yppl better than average offensively. Houston’s defense is 0.5 yppl worse than average using every game, but their top defensive player, S Will Gulley missed most of two games early in the season and the Cougars rate at 0.2 yppl worse than average defensively with Gulley healthy. South Carolina has an overall advantage from the line of scrimmage and a significant edge in special teams, but Houston has an advantage in projected turnovers and my math model favors the Gamecocks by 5 ½ points overall (with a total of 62 points). The reason for the play on Houston is a number of bowl situations that favor the Cougars, including an 82-43-2 ATS statistical match-up indicator applying to Houston and a negative 13-41 ATS situation that applies to South Carolina.
+$2710 (2 games pending)
Bowl: Liberty Bowl
Teams: Houston vs. South Carolina
Line: South Carolina -7
My Play: Houston plus the touchdown
Amount: 550 to win 500
Thoughts: Both of these teams are better now than they were earlier in the season and the offensive units should control this game against a pair of mediocre defensive teams. With that being the case, I certainly don’t mind taking the points with a Houston team that is led by a 4 year starting quarterback in Kevin Kolb that rarely makes mistakes (just 3 interceptions all season). Kolb had another fantastic season and averaged 7.6 yards per pass play (against teams that would combine to allow 6.9 yppp to an average quarterback) to go along with his incredible TD to interception ratio of 27 to 3. Houston’s offense got better in mid-season when speedy receiver Anthony Alridge was converted to running back to share duties with bulldozing back Jackie Battle (858 yards at 5.0 ypr). Alridge broke big runs in practically every game he played at running back and finished the season with 904 yards at an amazing 10.6 ypr, including averages of 112 yards at 10.2 ypr in 6 games at running back. Houston’s offense rates at 1.1 yards per play better than average with Alridge sharing running duties with Battle. That attack should have no trouble moving the ball against a mediocre South Carolina defense that has allowed 5.5 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average defensive team. The 3 best offensive teams that South Carolina faced were Arkansas, Florida, and Clemson, each of whom the Gamecocks played in the final 4 weeks of the season. Those 3 teams combine to rate at 1.1 yppl better than average offensive (the same as Houston) and they combined to average 7.2 yppl against South Carolina – so the Gamecocks played even worse than normal defensively against really good offensive teams like Houston. South Carolina was competitive in those games because their offense was playing better than ever with Blake Mitchell back at quarterback after Syvelle Newton was moved to defensive safety. Mitchell ended the season averaging a robust 8.0 yppp despite facing defenses that would combine to allow just 5.5 yppp to an average quarterback. With Mitchell at quarterback the Gamecocks rate at 1.6 yppl better than average offensively. Houston’s defense is 0.5 yppl worse than average using every game, but their top defensive player, S Will Gulley missed most of two games early in the season and the Cougars rate at 0.2 yppl worse than average defensively with Gulley healthy. South Carolina has an overall advantage from the line of scrimmage and a significant edge in special teams, but Houston has an advantage in projected turnovers and my math model favors the Gamecocks by 5 ½ points overall (with a total of 62 points). The reason for the play on Houston is a number of bowl situations that favor the Cougars, including an 82-43-2 ATS statistical match-up indicator applying to Houston and a negative 13-41 ATS situation that applies to South Carolina.