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  • Hole in ozone shrinking, scientists say

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2...16/2093586.htm

    While the news on climate change gets worse, the news on the ozone layer is getting better - the ozone hole above the Antarctic has shrunk.

    At about 25 million square kilometres, the hole is the smallest it is been in five years.

    It is more than a decade since many of the chemicals that deplete ozone were phased out internationally, but the ozone hole is not likely to completely close just yet.

    Dr Paul Fraser is from CSIRO's Marine and Atmospheric Research division. He says while scientists believe the hole is shrinking, its size does vary from year to year.

    "The biggest driver of the year-to-year variability in the ozone hole are stratospheric temperatures, and this was a particularly warm year in the stratosphere," he said.

    "When you have a warm stratosphere, the processes that destroy ozone in conjunction with the CFCs (chloro fluoro carbon) are much less efficient, and so you end up with a relatively small ozone hole.

    "So the year to year variability is determined by the temperature changes, but they're superimposed on a long-term trend and we think that's heading in the right direction towards eventual ozone recovery, but that's going to take a long time."

    He says the fact that CFCs (ozone depleting substances) were phased out has helped the situation.

    "What's happening is the concentrations of those chemicals under the phase-out peaked in the late 1990s and have been declining ever since at about 1 per cent per year," he said.

    "All other factors being equal, we would expect an equivalent response in the ozone hole, so a slow, long-term decline in the depth and the area of the ozone hole."

    He says the effects of the CFCs will linger for a long time.

    "The ozone depleting chemicals are some of the longest lived chemicals in the atmosphere - on average, typically 100 years or so," he said.

    "In effect, we're paying for past sins in the sense that the ozone-depleting chemicals are already in the atmosphere, they're slowly leaking into the stratosphere where they're destroyed, and that's what's causing these ozone holes.

    "And until the atmosphere eventually cleanses itself to get rid of these ozone depleting chemicals, then we will continue to have significant ozone depletion."

    Climate change

    Dr Fraser says global warming will slow the closing process.

    "Ozone depleting is temperature sensitive," he said.

    "Along with the well-known phenomenon of global warming, that is a warming at the earth's surface as we increase the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, there is another phenomenon occurring, which is stratospheric or upper atmospheric cooling.

    "So you have a warming of the surface and a cooling in the stratosphere, so as we head for global warming and stratospheric cooling, we're actually going to have a more efficient ozone depletion process.

    "And that acts to counter the loss of ozone depleting chemicals from the atmosphere.

    "But nevertheless, if we remove the ozone depleting chemicals from the atmosphere, we will get ozone recovery but it will be delayed by greenhouse warming."

  • #2
    That's what the hole's in the ozone do... shrink and grow again year after year; sometimes completely "healing" up and completely new holes forming. Been happening for millenia.

    Comment


    • #3
      Rado must have been a little more quiet as of late if its shrinking up...

      Comment


      • #4
        So, basically they don't know what they're talking about. They've never known. The ozone layer is just fine.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by GearTripper
          That's what the hole's in the ozone do... shrink and grow again year after year; sometimes completely "healing" up and completely new holes forming. Been happening for millenia.
          Is that really what happens? I would be interested in reading about that. Any links.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by babyblues
            So, basically they don't know what they're talking about. They've never known. The ozone layer is just fine.
            Hmmm... not sure how you reached that conclusion. Actually, atmospheric scientists do know what they are talking about - the chemical reactions controlling atmospheric ozone formation are very well understood and the relationship between the polar ozone depletion and CFCs have been well documented and researched for over 25 years.

            The fact is that the ozone depletion increased due to the use of CFCs and has been decreasing ever since CFCs have been phased out. Nobody within the scientific community seriously debates that point.

            What is somewhat more contentious is the consequence of increased global ozone. Atmospheric ozone absorbs UV-B from the sun. Less atmospheric ozone means more UV-B at the earth's surface. It is conjectured that this will result in increased melanomas in humans, but it is very difficult to do a controlled experiment on this, so it is hard to prove scientifically because UV-A which also can cause skin cancers is not blocked by ozone and moreover, it is very difficult to block for lifestyle changes and run a clean experiment.

            There is however other evidence that appears to suggest something is amiss. For example, the worldwide population of frogs has seen drastic declines and since frogs have delicate skins that are highly sensitive to the environment, there is speculation that increased UV radiation may be killing them off.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Scrumhalf
              Hmmm... not sure how you reached that conclusion. Actually, atmospheric scientists do know what they are talking about - the chemical reactions controlling atmospheric ozone formation are very well understood and the relationship between the polar ozone depletion and CFCs have been well documented and researched for over 25 years.

              The fact is that the ozone depletion increased due to the use of CFCs and has been decreasing ever since CFCs have been phased out. Nobody within the scientific community seriously debates that point.

              What is somewhat more contentious is the consequence of increased global ozone. Atmospheric ozone absorbs UV-B from the sun. Less atmospheric ozone means more UV-B at the earth's surface. It is conjectured that this will result in increased melanomas in humans, but it is very difficult to do a controlled experiment on this, so it is hard to prove scientifically because UV-A which also can cause skin cancers is not blocked by ozone and moreover, it is very difficult to block for lifestyle changes and run a clean experiment.

              There is however other evidence that appears to suggest something is amiss. For example, the worldwide population of frogs has seen drastic declines and since frogs have delicate skins that are highly sensitive to the environment, there is speculation that increased UV radiation may be killing them off.
              What the hell do you read on a daily basis to be so well informed on just about everything? Or is that a secret too?

              Comment


              • #8
                LOL... I have no reasons to keep secrets! I read a lot and I am pretty omnivorous in my subject matter, especially science, natural history, history, geography, etc. I don't watch any TV, rarely sleep more than 5.5 hours a night and ride public transportation to work, so I have lots of spare time on my hands to read. :)

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Scrumhalf
                  Hmmm... not sure how you reached that conclusion. Actually, atmospheric scientists do know what they are talking about - the chemical reactions controlling atmospheric ozone formation are very well understood and the relationship between the polar ozone depletion and CFCs have been well documented and researched for over 25 years.

                  The fact is that the ozone depletion increased due to the use of CFCs and has been decreasing ever since CFCs have been phased out. Nobody within the scientific community seriously debates that point.

                  What is somewhat more contentious is the consequence of increased global ozone. Atmospheric ozone absorbs UV-B from the sun. Less atmospheric ozone means more UV-B at the earth's surface. It is conjectured that this will result in increased melanomas in humans, but it is very difficult to do a controlled experiment on this, so it is hard to prove scientifically because UV-A which also can cause skin cancers is not blocked by ozone and moreover, it is very difficult to block for lifestyle changes and run a clean experiment.

                  There is however other evidence that appears to suggest something is amiss. For example, the worldwide population of frogs has seen drastic declines and since frogs have delicate skins that are highly sensitive to the environment, there is speculation that increased UV radiation may be killing them off.
                  Knowing alot about the subject doesn't mean you actually know what you're talking about. Scientists certainly know many facts about the subject, but the interpretation of those facts is guesswork at best.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by babyblues
                    Knowing alot about the subject doesn't mean you actually know what you're talking about. Scientists certainly know many facts about the subject, but the interpretation of those facts is guesswork at best.
                    c'mon bro your just being a dick now.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Scrumhalf
                      LOL... I have no reasons to keep secrets! I read a lot and I am pretty omnivorous in my subject matter, especially science, natural history, history, geography, etc. I don't watch any TV, rarely sleep more than 5.5 hours a night and ride public transportation to work, so I have lots of spare time on my hands to read. :)
                      Are you a politician, because you totally just side stepped me question? :D So, what do you read?

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by babyblues
                        Knowing alot about the subject doesn't mean you actually know what you're talking about. Scientists certainly know many facts about the subject, but the interpretation of those facts is guesswork at best.
                        Sigh.... maybe you are mixing ozone depletion and global warming.

                        Ozone depletion is backed by hard data and evidence. This is evidenced by the fact that there is remarkably little controversy among the scientific community about ozone depletion. There are numerous scientific studies from many countries about it. The science and chemistry is very well understood.

                        But don't take my word for it. Research it yourself. It will require you however to get your science from reputable sources. A good place to start is the Wikipedia entry on Ozone depletion. The reference section is packed with a lot of reading material.

                        http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ozone_depletion

                        BTW, I have found Wikipedia to be a good starting point for amateurs for just about every scientific topic I can think of. It is truly a labor of love by the many volunteers who have put the information together, with numerous references for more in-depth study.

                        You are of course free to believe whatever you want, but if you are willing to put in the work, you will find that things are quite as hazy as you may be thinking.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by NewbieChris
                          Are you a politician, because you totally just side stepped me question? :D So, what do you read?
                          I subscribe to Scientific American and National Geographic magazines and I generally read them cover to cover every month. I used to subscribe to the New Yorker and Atlantic magazines but I didn't find enough stuff there to always hold my interest, so I canceled them.

                          As I indicated, I read a *lot* of books. Probably a book every other week on average. A sampling of my book list over the last year - some of these are new reads, some are re-reads. As you can see, it is very diverse subject-wise.

                          Stephen Jay Gould: The Mismeasure of Man.
                          A great book on the misuse of IQ tests and miscorrelation of physical characteristics with intelligence and the tragic consequences when used to set government policy

                          The Crystal Desert: Summers in Antarctica
                          David Campbell
                          A wonderful essay on a biologist spending a summer in Antarctica doing research.

                          Fire
                          Sebastian Junger
                          A book of essays on dangerous occupations including sections on firejumpers in the western US, the Kosovo genocide and the diamond trade in Africa.

                          In Search of Memory: The Emergence of a New Science of Mind
                          Eric Kandel
                          An autobiography as well as popular science treatise on the science of human memory by the Nobel Prize winning neuroscientist

                          Chasing Hubble Shadows
                          Jeff Kanipe
                          A book on the use of the Hubble Space Telescope to research distance galaxies and in doing so, the origin of the universe

                          Return to Wild America: A Yearlong Search for the Continent's Natural Soul
                          Scott Weidensaul
                          A marvelous book of luminous prose about a naturalist's trip around the US and all that's wonderful and not-so wonderful about wildlife conservation in North America.

                          The Snow Leopard
                          Peter Mathiessen
                          Part travelogue about a journey to Nepal to spot the elusive snow leopard, part essays and ruminations about Buddhism.

                          Eastward to Tartary
                          Robert Kaplan
                          Travelogue of the author's trip in the Balkans, Asia Minor, the Caucasus and the Middle East

                          Fermat's Enigma
                          Simon Singh
                          A book on the history and solving of Fermat's last theorem

                          The Guns of August
                          Barbara Tuchman
                          Probably the best book on the reasons for and early developments in World War 1

                          One Day in the Life of Ivan Denisovich
                          Alexander Solzhenitsyn
                          One day in the life of a prisoner in Stalin's gulag

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Scrumhalf
                            Sigh.... maybe you are mixing ozone depletion and global warming.

                            Ozone depletion is backed by hard data and evidence. This is evidenced by the fact that there is remarkably little controversy among the scientific community about ozone depletion. There are numerous scientific studies from many countries about it. The science and chemistry is very well understood.

                            But don't take my word for it. Research it yourself. It will require you however to get your science from reputable sources. A good place to start is the Wikipedia entry on Ozone depletion. The reference section is packed with a lot of reading material.

                            http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ozone_depletion

                            BTW, I have found Wikipedia to be a good starting point for amateurs for just about every scientific topic I can think of. It is truly a labor of love by the many volunteers who have put the information together, with numerous references for more in-depth study.

                            You are of course free to believe whatever you want, but if you are willing to put in the work, you will find that things are quite as hazy as you may be thinking.
                            I'm not disputing the hard data. I'm disputing the conclusion. Not your conclusion, the author's conclusion. I'm not going to get into a discussion about global warming because inevitably facts and figures get thrown around in overabundance without any consensus on how they should be interpreted. If the facts really are that conclusive, why are there so many different conclusions drawn from them?

                            It's kind of like all the information we get from rado. We get a detailed report of the rash on his groin and the humidifier he's buying and how many plasma TVs he has in his house, but nothing that really has a constructive impact on our lives. :D

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              good info scrum, thanks.

                              baby blues, you would dispute your own face if you didn't have a mirror.

                              newbiechris, take a step back brother. no need to put someone down because he is knowledgeable. i know you are just kidding him like I do sometimes but i am not sure if he knows your personality like he knows mine. i dont want to run scrumhalf away from here, he is a good guy to have around.

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