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Virginia (-8.5) @ North Carolina
Virginia quarterback Matt Schaub, last year’s ACC Offensive Player of the Year, returned to the lineup last week in the Cavs’ 27-24 non-covering win over Wake Forest. Schaub has averaged 7.7 yppp in his limited duty (against teams that allow 6.7 yppp) and he ought to be in fine form in this game against a defenseless North Carolina defense that’s allowed 9.3 yards per pass play this season (to teams that average 7.6 yppp on offense). The Tarheels’ offense is capable of keeping up, as Darian Durant’s one man attack has averaged 5.6 yards per play this season (against teams that allow 5.2 yppl) and Virginia has been just mediocre defensively (5.1 yppl allowed to teams that average 5.0 yppl on offense). My mathematical model favors Virginia by 6 points, but North Carolina is just 3-15 ATS at home in recent years – including 9 straight spread losses. I will take Virginia
Virginia quarterback Matt Schaub, last year’s ACC Offensive Player of the Year, returned to the lineup last week in the Cavs’ 27-24 non-covering win over Wake Forest. Schaub has averaged 7.7 yppp in his limited duty (against teams that allow 6.7 yppp) and he ought to be in fine form in this game against a defenseless North Carolina defense that’s allowed 9.3 yards per pass play this season (to teams that average 7.6 yppp on offense). The Tarheels’ offense is capable of keeping up, as Darian Durant’s one man attack has averaged 5.6 yards per play this season (against teams that allow 5.2 yppl) and Virginia has been just mediocre defensively (5.1 yppl allowed to teams that average 5.0 yppl on offense). My mathematical model favors Virginia by 6 points, but North Carolina is just 3-15 ATS at home in recent years – including 9 straight spread losses. I will take Virginia
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