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Miami (FL) (-25.5) versus West Virginia
Miami is an overrated football team this season, as they are not as good on either side of the ball as they were a year ago, when they were also a bit overrated (4-8 ATS). New quarterback Brock Berlin is doing a fine job at quarterback, as the ‘Canes are averaging a robust 7.0 yards per pass play (against teams that allow a combined 5.9 yppp on defense), but Miami hasn’t filled the shoes left by Willis McGahee, who ran for 1753 yards at 6.2 ypr last year. The Hurricanes have been just average running the ball this year, averaging 4.9 yards per rushing play against teams that allow 4.9 yprp on defense, and their offense is good but not great this season (6.0 yards per play against teams that allow a combined 5.3 yppl). West Virginia has a pretty solid defense that has allowed 5.0 yppl to teams that average a combined 5.2 yppl on offense, so Miami may not be able to score enough points to cover such a big number. West Virginia is a running team and Miami is still a bit susceptible to the run – although they are better defending the run this season (4.3 yprp allowed to teams that average 4.5 yprp on offense) than they were last year. West Virginia certainly isn’t as good running the ball this season as they were a year ago, but the Mountaineers have averaged 5.1 yprp against a schedule of teams that combines to allow 4.5 yprp on defense. West Virginia quarterback Rasheed Marshall has averaged only 5.2 yppp this year (against teams that allow 6.1 yppp) and he has no chance of success against a Miami secondary that has yielded just 5.0 yppp this season (to teams that average 5.9 yppp on offense). West Virginia ought to manufacture a few scoring drives on the ground and my math model clearly favors them to stay within the inflated number. West Virginia is also 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games while Miami is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games at the Orange Bowl.
Miami is an overrated football team this season, as they are not as good on either side of the ball as they were a year ago, when they were also a bit overrated (4-8 ATS). New quarterback Brock Berlin is doing a fine job at quarterback, as the ‘Canes are averaging a robust 7.0 yards per pass play (against teams that allow a combined 5.9 yppp on defense), but Miami hasn’t filled the shoes left by Willis McGahee, who ran for 1753 yards at 6.2 ypr last year. The Hurricanes have been just average running the ball this year, averaging 4.9 yards per rushing play against teams that allow 4.9 yprp on defense, and their offense is good but not great this season (6.0 yards per play against teams that allow a combined 5.3 yppl). West Virginia has a pretty solid defense that has allowed 5.0 yppl to teams that average a combined 5.2 yppl on offense, so Miami may not be able to score enough points to cover such a big number. West Virginia is a running team and Miami is still a bit susceptible to the run – although they are better defending the run this season (4.3 yprp allowed to teams that average 4.5 yprp on offense) than they were last year. West Virginia certainly isn’t as good running the ball this season as they were a year ago, but the Mountaineers have averaged 5.1 yprp against a schedule of teams that combines to allow 4.5 yprp on defense. West Virginia quarterback Rasheed Marshall has averaged only 5.2 yppp this year (against teams that allow 6.1 yppp) and he has no chance of success against a Miami secondary that has yielded just 5.0 yppp this season (to teams that average 5.9 yppp on offense). West Virginia ought to manufacture a few scoring drives on the ground and my math model clearly favors them to stay within the inflated number. West Virginia is also 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games while Miami is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games at the Orange Bowl.
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