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Virginia Tech (-26.5) at Rutgers
Virginia Tech, averaging 6.1 yards per rushing play in their 3 Division 1A games (against teams that allow 4.5 yprp), will run the ball at will against a porous Rutgers defense that has surrendered 5.7 yprp this year to teams that average just 4.4 yprp on offense. The Hokies are also good throwing the football when they need to (7.4 yards per pass play against teams that allow 5.9 yppp) since the Scarlet Knights don’t stop the pass that well either (5.4 yppp allowed to teams that average only 4.7 yppp on offense). While the Hokies should put up a lot a points, the Scarlet Knights have a decent shot at covering the large number thanks to the solid passing of Ryan Hart (7.3 yppp against teams that allow a combined 7.1 yppp on defense). Virginia Tech’s only weakness is a pass defense that has surrendered 6.6 yppp in their 3 Division 1A games this season (to teams that combine to average 6.5 yppp) and the prospect of a back-door cover is certainly there. My math model favors Virginia Tech by 26 ½ points, so the line looks right to me and there are certainly plenty of other games to invest in.
Virginia Tech, averaging 6.1 yards per rushing play in their 3 Division 1A games (against teams that allow 4.5 yprp), will run the ball at will against a porous Rutgers defense that has surrendered 5.7 yprp this year to teams that average just 4.4 yprp on offense. The Hokies are also good throwing the football when they need to (7.4 yards per pass play against teams that allow 5.9 yppp) since the Scarlet Knights don’t stop the pass that well either (5.4 yppp allowed to teams that average only 4.7 yppp on offense). While the Hokies should put up a lot a points, the Scarlet Knights have a decent shot at covering the large number thanks to the solid passing of Ryan Hart (7.3 yppp against teams that allow a combined 7.1 yppp on defense). Virginia Tech’s only weakness is a pass defense that has surrendered 6.6 yppp in their 3 Division 1A games this season (to teams that combine to average 6.5 yppp) and the prospect of a back-door cover is certainly there. My math model favors Virginia Tech by 26 ½ points, so the line looks right to me and there are certainly plenty of other games to invest in.
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