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Colorado (-20.5) at Baylor
Baylor, under former Kentucky coach Guy Morriss, is sitting at 2-2 after back-to-back wins as they enter conference play. While the Bears are improved, wins over SMU and Sam Houston State are not that impressive and this will be a true test. Colorado is certainly nothing special this year, but Baylor has a long been the Big 12 Conference punching bag and the Bears are on a 4-30-1 ATS run in conference games. It will be interesting to see if Morriss can change that trend and he is certainly in a good situation to do so, as Baylor qualifies in a very good 34-6-2 ATS rested home underdog situation. Colorado quarterback Joel Klatt is questionable for this game with an injured shoulder and has missed the past 1 ½ games. However, the numbers of backup Erik Greenberg are actually a bit better than Klatt’s once you compensate for the level of opponent’s pass defense that he’s faced (Washington State and Florida State). So, Klatt’s status makes no difference as far as I’m concerned. The Buffaloes have been just average offensively this year, averaging 4.7 yppl against teams that allow 4.6 yppl on defense, but they ought to move the ball well in this game against a Baylor defense that’s allowed 5.6 yppl to Division 1A foes that average just 4.5 yppl on offense for the season. The Bears’ offense is just as bad as their defense, as they’ve averaged just 4.2 yppl against teams that allow 5.2 yppl on defense. However, Baylor could get their offense going a bit against a bad Colorado defense that’s given up 6.8 yppl this season (to teams that average 5.7 yppl on offense). Overall, my mathematical model favors Colorado by 15 points in this game and I won’t deviate for that prediction given the general situation and the team trend are equally strong and pointing in opposite directions.
Baylor, under former Kentucky coach Guy Morriss, is sitting at 2-2 after back-to-back wins as they enter conference play. While the Bears are improved, wins over SMU and Sam Houston State are not that impressive and this will be a true test. Colorado is certainly nothing special this year, but Baylor has a long been the Big 12 Conference punching bag and the Bears are on a 4-30-1 ATS run in conference games. It will be interesting to see if Morriss can change that trend and he is certainly in a good situation to do so, as Baylor qualifies in a very good 34-6-2 ATS rested home underdog situation. Colorado quarterback Joel Klatt is questionable for this game with an injured shoulder and has missed the past 1 ½ games. However, the numbers of backup Erik Greenberg are actually a bit better than Klatt’s once you compensate for the level of opponent’s pass defense that he’s faced (Washington State and Florida State). So, Klatt’s status makes no difference as far as I’m concerned. The Buffaloes have been just average offensively this year, averaging 4.7 yppl against teams that allow 4.6 yppl on defense, but they ought to move the ball well in this game against a Baylor defense that’s allowed 5.6 yppl to Division 1A foes that average just 4.5 yppl on offense for the season. The Bears’ offense is just as bad as their defense, as they’ve averaged just 4.2 yppl against teams that allow 5.2 yppl on defense. However, Baylor could get their offense going a bit against a bad Colorado defense that’s given up 6.8 yppl this season (to teams that average 5.7 yppl on offense). Overall, my mathematical model favors Colorado by 15 points in this game and I won’t deviate for that prediction given the general situation and the team trend are equally strong and pointing in opposite directions.