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NEBRASKA (-27.5) versus Troy State
Nebraska’s option is not the best type of offense to attack a Troy State defense that is good defending the run (4.4 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that combine to average 4.9 yprp on offense) and Nebraska has been just average running the ball this season anyway (4.3 yprp against teams that allow 4.3 yprp). The Cornhuskers did open up their attack with a few long passes in their win over Southern Miss and Jamal Lord has done a better job of throwing the ball this year (averaging 6.3 yards per pass play against teams that allow 5.5 yppp on defense). Troy State is worse than average defending the pass (7.0 yppp allowed to teams that average 6.8 yppp), but I doubt that Nebraska is going to pass enough to fully exploit that weakness. Troy State, averaging only 3.9 yppl (against teams that allow an average of 4.9 yppl), will be fortunate to score against Nebraska’s first team defense (3.8 yppl allowed to teams that average 4.8 yppl on offense). I don’t like the match-up in this game, but Nebraska does qualify in a very strong 97-36-3 ATS home momentum situation. I’ll pass.
Nebraska’s option is not the best type of offense to attack a Troy State defense that is good defending the run (4.4 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that combine to average 4.9 yprp on offense) and Nebraska has been just average running the ball this season anyway (4.3 yprp against teams that allow 4.3 yprp). The Cornhuskers did open up their attack with a few long passes in their win over Southern Miss and Jamal Lord has done a better job of throwing the ball this year (averaging 6.3 yards per pass play against teams that allow 5.5 yppp on defense). Troy State is worse than average defending the pass (7.0 yppp allowed to teams that average 6.8 yppp), but I doubt that Nebraska is going to pass enough to fully exploit that weakness. Troy State, averaging only 3.9 yppl (against teams that allow an average of 4.9 yppl), will be fortunate to score against Nebraska’s first team defense (3.8 yppl allowed to teams that average 4.8 yppl on offense). I don’t like the match-up in this game, but Nebraska does qualify in a very strong 97-36-3 ATS home momentum situation. I’ll pass.