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Texas (-6.0) versus Kansas St.
With El Roberson and Darren Sproles back in the lineup, the Wildcats have the offensive weapons to beat a Texas defense that is susceptible to the run again this season. Texas has allowed 4.2 yards per rushing play this season (to teams that average 4.6 yprp on offense), so they are only a bit better than average against the run. Kansas State quarterback El Roberson ran for 251 yards at 6.6 ypr in 2 ½ games before getting injured and Sproles has run for 554 yards at 6.2 ypr this season. When Roberson and Sproles were both in the lineup the Wildcats averaged 7.1 yards per play against Cal and Troy State defenses that combine to allow an average of 5.7 yppl for the season. Arkansas has a similar running quarterback and great running back and the Hogs beat the Longhorns defense for 5.6 yppl and 38 points, so Kansas State should be able to move the ball at a pretty good rate in this game. Texas has an improved offense this season, averaging 6.5 yppl against a schedule of teams that allow a combined 5.6 yppl on defense, but I rate their offense as a bit worse than Kansas State’s attack. The defense of Kansas State is just as good as the Texas defense, so I rate the Wildcats as a bit better overall and my ratings favor Texas by only 1 ½ points in this game with Roberson and Sproles playing for Kansas State. I have strong situations favoring Texas (a 73-23 ATS situation is one that applies to the Horns) and strong statistical match-up indicators favoring Kansas State (a 37-9-2 ATS angle) to go along with a 49-11 ATS road underdog bounce-back angle. With the technical analysis favoring both sides, I’ll stick with my ratings and lean heavily with Kansas State to stay within the number against a Texas team that continues to falter when favored against other good teams (the Longhorns are now just 2-11 ATS when favored by 14 points or less against teams with a win percentage of greater than .700, and only 4-9 straight up in those games). Kansas State on the money-line could be worth a look.
With El Roberson and Darren Sproles back in the lineup, the Wildcats have the offensive weapons to beat a Texas defense that is susceptible to the run again this season. Texas has allowed 4.2 yards per rushing play this season (to teams that average 4.6 yprp on offense), so they are only a bit better than average against the run. Kansas State quarterback El Roberson ran for 251 yards at 6.6 ypr in 2 ½ games before getting injured and Sproles has run for 554 yards at 6.2 ypr this season. When Roberson and Sproles were both in the lineup the Wildcats averaged 7.1 yards per play against Cal and Troy State defenses that combine to allow an average of 5.7 yppl for the season. Arkansas has a similar running quarterback and great running back and the Hogs beat the Longhorns defense for 5.6 yppl and 38 points, so Kansas State should be able to move the ball at a pretty good rate in this game. Texas has an improved offense this season, averaging 6.5 yppl against a schedule of teams that allow a combined 5.6 yppl on defense, but I rate their offense as a bit worse than Kansas State’s attack. The defense of Kansas State is just as good as the Texas defense, so I rate the Wildcats as a bit better overall and my ratings favor Texas by only 1 ½ points in this game with Roberson and Sproles playing for Kansas State. I have strong situations favoring Texas (a 73-23 ATS situation is one that applies to the Horns) and strong statistical match-up indicators favoring Kansas State (a 37-9-2 ATS angle) to go along with a 49-11 ATS road underdog bounce-back angle. With the technical analysis favoring both sides, I’ll stick with my ratings and lean heavily with Kansas State to stay within the number against a Texas team that continues to falter when favored against other good teams (the Longhorns are now just 2-11 ATS when favored by 14 points or less against teams with a win percentage of greater than .700, and only 4-9 straight up in those games). Kansas State on the money-line could be worth a look.
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