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Texas Tech (-5.0) versus Texas A&M
Texas Tech is coming off a thrilling 49-45 comeback win at Mississippi and their offense is better with B.J. Symons at quarterback than it was with Kliff Kingsbury, who I always thought was overrated. Symons and the Red Raiders offensive unit have averaged an incredible 572 total yards per game at 7.5 yards per play (against teams that combine to allow 5.9 yppl on defense) and they should continue to put up big numbers against a mediocre Aggies’ defense that gave up 478 yards at 6.6 yppl to Pittsburgh last week. Thankfully, the A&M offense is good enough to take advantage of a banged up Red Raiders’ defense that has allowed an average of 545 total yards at 6.9 yppl in their last 3 games to New Mexico, NC State, and Mississippi – who average a combined 5.9 yppl on offense. Texas A&M racked up 544 yards at 7.0 yppl against a solid Pittsburgh defense last week and they’ll run the ball at will in this game while also having decent success through the air. The Aggies have averaged an impressive 5.1 yards per rushing play this season despite facing a schedule of teams that combine to allow only 4.0 yprp on defense. Expect Texas A&M to run for over 6 yards a pop in this game against a Red Raiders’ defensive front that’s surrendered 4.9 yprp this season to teams that average just 4.0 yprp on offense. Overall, my mathematical model favors Texas Tech by 7 points and the Red Raiders are 12-4 ATS at home while the Aggies are just 1-8 ATS as a road dog in recent years. I’m concerned about Tech’s defensive injury list, but I’ll lean slightly with the Red Raiders at home.
Texas Tech is coming off a thrilling 49-45 comeback win at Mississippi and their offense is better with B.J. Symons at quarterback than it was with Kliff Kingsbury, who I always thought was overrated. Symons and the Red Raiders offensive unit have averaged an incredible 572 total yards per game at 7.5 yards per play (against teams that combine to allow 5.9 yppl on defense) and they should continue to put up big numbers against a mediocre Aggies’ defense that gave up 478 yards at 6.6 yppl to Pittsburgh last week. Thankfully, the A&M offense is good enough to take advantage of a banged up Red Raiders’ defense that has allowed an average of 545 total yards at 6.9 yppl in their last 3 games to New Mexico, NC State, and Mississippi – who average a combined 5.9 yppl on offense. Texas A&M racked up 544 yards at 7.0 yppl against a solid Pittsburgh defense last week and they’ll run the ball at will in this game while also having decent success through the air. The Aggies have averaged an impressive 5.1 yards per rushing play this season despite facing a schedule of teams that combine to allow only 4.0 yprp on defense. Expect Texas A&M to run for over 6 yards a pop in this game against a Red Raiders’ defensive front that’s surrendered 4.9 yprp this season to teams that average just 4.0 yprp on offense. Overall, my mathematical model favors Texas Tech by 7 points and the Red Raiders are 12-4 ATS at home while the Aggies are just 1-8 ATS as a road dog in recent years. I’m concerned about Tech’s defensive injury list, but I’ll lean slightly with the Red Raiders at home.
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