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Air Force (-14.5) at Navy
Navy is a much improved team and last week’s 27-48 loss at Rutgers was due to 3 costly fumbles, as the Middies dominated from the line of scrimmage 7.0 yards per play to 5.4 yppl for Rutgers. However, Air Force is still a better team on both sides of the ball and the line looks about right in this game. Navy has put up big numbers in their last two games against bad defensive teams, but they were held to just 3.0 yppl by TCU and have managed just 5.4 yppl in their 3 Division 1A games this year (against teams that allow an average of 5.6 yppl on defense). The Middies’ option attack will not find it so easy to run against an Air Force defense that has given up just 3.9 yards per rushing play (in D-1A games) to teams that combine to average 4.4 yprp on offense. While Navy’s attack will be slowed, the same cannot be said about the Air Force option, which also uses the pass as a weapon. The Falcons have averaged 5.6 yppl this season (against teams that allow 5.3 yppl) and they should run their attack with relative ease against a sub-par Navy defense that’s allowed 5.1 yppl to 3 bad offensive teams (Navy’s defense would allow about 6.2 yppl against an average schedule of offensive teams). Overall, my math model favors Air Force by 15 ½ points, but I’ll lean slightly with the dog getting more than 14 points.
Navy is a much improved team and last week’s 27-48 loss at Rutgers was due to 3 costly fumbles, as the Middies dominated from the line of scrimmage 7.0 yards per play to 5.4 yppl for Rutgers. However, Air Force is still a better team on both sides of the ball and the line looks about right in this game. Navy has put up big numbers in their last two games against bad defensive teams, but they were held to just 3.0 yppl by TCU and have managed just 5.4 yppl in their 3 Division 1A games this year (against teams that allow an average of 5.6 yppl on defense). The Middies’ option attack will not find it so easy to run against an Air Force defense that has given up just 3.9 yards per rushing play (in D-1A games) to teams that combine to average 4.4 yprp on offense. While Navy’s attack will be slowed, the same cannot be said about the Air Force option, which also uses the pass as a weapon. The Falcons have averaged 5.6 yppl this season (against teams that allow 5.3 yppl) and they should run their attack with relative ease against a sub-par Navy defense that’s allowed 5.1 yppl to 3 bad offensive teams (Navy’s defense would allow about 6.2 yppl against an average schedule of offensive teams). Overall, my math model favors Air Force by 15 ½ points, but I’ll lean slightly with the dog getting more than 14 points.