Tweet
Vanderbilt @ Mississippi St. (-4.5)
It’s tough to back a free-falling Mississippi State team that is 0-4 straight up and 0-4 ATS, but the Bulldogs have too much offensive talent to ignore in this game against a Vanderbilt that lacks the defense to stop their attack. Despite their winless record, the Bulldogs have averaged 5.8 yards per play against a schedule of teams that combine to allow only 5.0 yppl on defense. Miss State has a good running back duo in Turner (6.0 ypr) and Norwood (5.0 ypr), but it is quarterback Kevin Fant who should shine in this game. Fant has averaged 6.4 yards per pass play against teams that allow a combined 5.5 yppp and he should have no trouble throwing against porous Vandy secondary that has given up 7.5 yppp (to teams that average 6.6 yppp on offense). The Commodores are also below average against the run (4.1 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that average 3.9 yprp on offense), so the Bulldogs’ potent rush attack (5.2 yprp against teams that allow 4.5 yprp) should enhance Fant’s good effort. The problem with the Bulldogs is a defense that has fallen apart without defensive coordinator Joe Lee Dunn’s guidance. Miss State has surrendered 6.4 yppl to teams that average 5.6 yppl on offense, but they did play a bit better against LSU last week (5.9 yppl allowed). Vanderbilt is good enough offensively (4.9 yppl against teams that allow 5.1 yppl) to put up a good number of points in this game, but I don’t think they’re good enough to outscore the Bulldogs. I realize that Mississippi State is just 3-11 ATS as a home favorite of more than 3 points the last 5 years, but Vandy is just 2-8 ATS as a road underdog since 2000 and my math model favors the Bulldogs by 6 points.
It’s tough to back a free-falling Mississippi State team that is 0-4 straight up and 0-4 ATS, but the Bulldogs have too much offensive talent to ignore in this game against a Vanderbilt that lacks the defense to stop their attack. Despite their winless record, the Bulldogs have averaged 5.8 yards per play against a schedule of teams that combine to allow only 5.0 yppl on defense. Miss State has a good running back duo in Turner (6.0 ypr) and Norwood (5.0 ypr), but it is quarterback Kevin Fant who should shine in this game. Fant has averaged 6.4 yards per pass play against teams that allow a combined 5.5 yppp and he should have no trouble throwing against porous Vandy secondary that has given up 7.5 yppp (to teams that average 6.6 yppp on offense). The Commodores are also below average against the run (4.1 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that average 3.9 yprp on offense), so the Bulldogs’ potent rush attack (5.2 yprp against teams that allow 4.5 yprp) should enhance Fant’s good effort. The problem with the Bulldogs is a defense that has fallen apart without defensive coordinator Joe Lee Dunn’s guidance. Miss State has surrendered 6.4 yppl to teams that average 5.6 yppl on offense, but they did play a bit better against LSU last week (5.9 yppl allowed). Vanderbilt is good enough offensively (4.9 yppl against teams that allow 5.1 yppl) to put up a good number of points in this game, but I don’t think they’re good enough to outscore the Bulldogs. I realize that Mississippi State is just 3-11 ATS as a home favorite of more than 3 points the last 5 years, but Vandy is just 2-8 ATS as a road underdog since 2000 and my math model favors the Bulldogs by 6 points.