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Alabama @ Georgia (-12.0)
Alabama may have a tough time picking themselves off the mat after blowing a big lead in their 31-34 overtime loss to Arkansas. The Crimson Tide also lost two defensive standouts in Antwan Odom and Derrick Pope, who are both listed as doubtful for this week. Alabama’s defense (4.9 yards per play allowed for the season against teams that average 5.3 yppl on offense) is probably just average without those two players and that weakened unit will have a tough time containing a good Georgia offense that’s averaged 5.9 yppl this season (against teams that allow 5.0 yppl). Alabama does have an excellent offense of their own (5.4 yppl against teams that allow just 4.6 yppl on defense for the season) and that unit has improved in recent weeks as the players adapt to new coach Shula’s schemes (remember, they didn’t have much time to learn his system after he replaced the fired Mike Price). Georgia’s defense, however, has one of the nation’s best defensive units (4.2 yppl allowed to teams that average 5.4 yppl on offense) and they should win the battle against ‘Bama’s offense. Overall, my mathematical model favors Georgia by 14 points, which is pretty close to the line. But, Alabama is playing their first road game of the season after 5 home games and they qualify in a negative 3-27-2 ATS angle based on that scheduling. Before plunking down your money on Georgia because of that high-percentage angle, you should remind yourself that Alabama is an incredible 32-9 ATS as a road or neutral underdog since 1976 and have covered 5 straight in that role heading into this year. That trend has been through many coaching changes and works with each coach, and I’m not eager to test it today. I’ll pass on this one.
Alabama may have a tough time picking themselves off the mat after blowing a big lead in their 31-34 overtime loss to Arkansas. The Crimson Tide also lost two defensive standouts in Antwan Odom and Derrick Pope, who are both listed as doubtful for this week. Alabama’s defense (4.9 yards per play allowed for the season against teams that average 5.3 yppl on offense) is probably just average without those two players and that weakened unit will have a tough time containing a good Georgia offense that’s averaged 5.9 yppl this season (against teams that allow 5.0 yppl). Alabama does have an excellent offense of their own (5.4 yppl against teams that allow just 4.6 yppl on defense for the season) and that unit has improved in recent weeks as the players adapt to new coach Shula’s schemes (remember, they didn’t have much time to learn his system after he replaced the fired Mike Price). Georgia’s defense, however, has one of the nation’s best defensive units (4.2 yppl allowed to teams that average 5.4 yppl on offense) and they should win the battle against ‘Bama’s offense. Overall, my mathematical model favors Georgia by 14 points, which is pretty close to the line. But, Alabama is playing their first road game of the season after 5 home games and they qualify in a negative 3-27-2 ATS angle based on that scheduling. Before plunking down your money on Georgia because of that high-percentage angle, you should remind yourself that Alabama is an incredible 32-9 ATS as a road or neutral underdog since 1976 and have covered 5 straight in that role heading into this year. That trend has been through many coaching changes and works with each coach, and I’m not eager to test it today. I’ll pass on this one.
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