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Tennessee @ Auburn (-1.0)
Auburn has turned things around the last two weeks after suffering embarrassing home losses to USC and Georgia Tech to start the season (by a combined score of 3-40). The Tigers started their resurgence with a 45-7 win at Vanderbilt and followed that up with a resounding 48-3 win over Western Kentucky, who won the Division 1AA title last year (Auburn would have been favored by about 21 points in that game if there were a line). Those last two dominating victories set up the Tigers in a 51-15-1 ATS home momentum situation today and my ratings call this game even, so the line is fair. I am a bit reluctant to consider Auburn as anything more than an opinion in this game since they haven’t scored a touchdown against a good defense this year, but I also believe that they have solved some of their offensive problems and will move the ball fairly well in this game against a good Tennessee defense that’s allowed just 4.7 yards per play to teams that average 5.3 yppl on offense. One constant for Auburn has been their defense, which has played well in every game this season and has yielded just 4.3 yppl in their 3 Division 1A games (to teams that average a combined 5.0 yppl on offense). Tennessee’s offense is only a bit better than average, averaging 5.5 yppl against teams that allow a combined 5.2 yppl on defense, so the Volunteers could have trouble moving the ball. I’ll lean with Auburn on the basis of the strong situation that they apply to.
Auburn has turned things around the last two weeks after suffering embarrassing home losses to USC and Georgia Tech to start the season (by a combined score of 3-40). The Tigers started their resurgence with a 45-7 win at Vanderbilt and followed that up with a resounding 48-3 win over Western Kentucky, who won the Division 1AA title last year (Auburn would have been favored by about 21 points in that game if there were a line). Those last two dominating victories set up the Tigers in a 51-15-1 ATS home momentum situation today and my ratings call this game even, so the line is fair. I am a bit reluctant to consider Auburn as anything more than an opinion in this game since they haven’t scored a touchdown against a good defense this year, but I also believe that they have solved some of their offensive problems and will move the ball fairly well in this game against a good Tennessee defense that’s allowed just 4.7 yards per play to teams that average 5.3 yppl on offense. One constant for Auburn has been their defense, which has played well in every game this season and has yielded just 4.3 yppl in their 3 Division 1A games (to teams that average a combined 5.0 yppl on offense). Tennessee’s offense is only a bit better than average, averaging 5.5 yppl against teams that allow a combined 5.2 yppl on defense, so the Volunteers could have trouble moving the ball. I’ll lean with Auburn on the basis of the strong situation that they apply to.
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