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Oakland (-4.0) @ Chicago
The Raiders were lucky to win last week against the winless Chargers and they may get another battle from a winless team this week. Oakland qualifies in a negative 46-90-3 ATS road favorite situation and the same negative 42-110-1 ATS statistical profile indicator that went against them last week (they are not the type of team, statistically, that is likely to cover laying more than 4 points). The Bears, meanwhile, apply to a positive 210-111-9 ATS statistical profile indicator. The bad news is that Chicago looks like they are among the worst 2 teams in the league (with Detroit). The Bears haven’t been that bad defensively, as they’ve allowed their 5.8 yards per play to good offensive teams that combine to average 5.6 yppl on offense. However, Chicago has a bad offensive unit (3.9 yppl against teams that allow a combined 4.7 yppl) and has no pass attack with Kordell Stewart throwing to perhaps the league’s worst receiving corps. The Bears have averaged a pathetic 3.3 yards per pass play (against teams that allow an average of 5.1 yppp), which negates their good rushing numbers (4.9 ypr against teams that allow 3.9 ypr). Oakland’s defense has given up 5.5 yppl to teams that average 5.1 yppl on offense, so perhaps the Bears can generate a few scoring drives in this game. The Chicago defense should do a decent job containing a mediocre Raiders’ offense that has averaged 5.1 yppl this season (against teams that allow 5.1 yppl) and clearly misses the field stretching ability of injured Jerry Porter. Overall, my mathematical model favors the Raiders by 5 ½ points and the situation and statistical indicators strongly favor the Bears.
The Raiders were lucky to win last week against the winless Chargers and they may get another battle from a winless team this week. Oakland qualifies in a negative 46-90-3 ATS road favorite situation and the same negative 42-110-1 ATS statistical profile indicator that went against them last week (they are not the type of team, statistically, that is likely to cover laying more than 4 points). The Bears, meanwhile, apply to a positive 210-111-9 ATS statistical profile indicator. The bad news is that Chicago looks like they are among the worst 2 teams in the league (with Detroit). The Bears haven’t been that bad defensively, as they’ve allowed their 5.8 yards per play to good offensive teams that combine to average 5.6 yppl on offense. However, Chicago has a bad offensive unit (3.9 yppl against teams that allow a combined 4.7 yppl) and has no pass attack with Kordell Stewart throwing to perhaps the league’s worst receiving corps. The Bears have averaged a pathetic 3.3 yards per pass play (against teams that allow an average of 5.1 yppp), which negates their good rushing numbers (4.9 ypr against teams that allow 3.9 ypr). Oakland’s defense has given up 5.5 yppl to teams that average 5.1 yppl on offense, so perhaps the Bears can generate a few scoring drives in this game. The Chicago defense should do a decent job containing a mediocre Raiders’ offense that has averaged 5.1 yppl this season (against teams that allow 5.1 yppl) and clearly misses the field stretching ability of injured Jerry Porter. Overall, my mathematical model favors the Raiders by 5 ½ points and the situation and statistical indicators strongly favor the Bears.
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