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Carolina (-6.5) @ New Orleans
The Panthers are a surprising 3-0 while the Saints’ Sunday night debacle has left them looking up in the standing at 1-3. Despite the records, I really don’t see that much difference between these teams from the line of scrimmage, as Carolina has been poor on offense and below average on defense while the Saints have been average offensively and just a bit below average on defense. Carolina’s offense has averaged just 4.5 yards per play in their 3 victories (against teams that allow a combined average of 4.8 yppl) and they don’t appear too capable of exploding on any defense. The Saints defense was ripped apart by a sharp Peyton Manning on Sunday night, but they’ve allowing a respectable 5.3 yppl on the season (against teams that average 5.1 yppl on offense) and they should bounce back with a good effort in this game (they qualify in a 67-39-3 ATS road blowout bounce-back situation). What’s surprising about the Panthers is that their defense has surrendered a mediocre 5.1 yppl against a group of teams that combine to average only 4.8 yppl on offense. They even allowed 5.1 yppl in last week’s 23-3 win over a bad Atlanta offense (4.5 yppl on offense), so they may not be able to keep a solid Saints’ attack (5.1 yppl against teams that allow 5.1 yppl) from scoring enough points to stay within the inflated number. Carolina has somehow allowed single digits in both of their two previous games, but teams that do that have a tendency to letdown a bit (69-110-2 ATS if favored or getting 5 points or less). The Panthers do have an outstanding special teams unit, which I rank at the top of the league, but even with that advantage my math model only favors Carolina by 4 points in this game. The Panthers do qualify in a couple of positive angles, but they also qualify in a couple of negative angles too, so siding with the Saints based on the line value looks like the best option, and the Saints are 7-0 ATS under coach Jim Haslett when they are an underdog of 3 points or more following a loss.
The Panthers are a surprising 3-0 while the Saints’ Sunday night debacle has left them looking up in the standing at 1-3. Despite the records, I really don’t see that much difference between these teams from the line of scrimmage, as Carolina has been poor on offense and below average on defense while the Saints have been average offensively and just a bit below average on defense. Carolina’s offense has averaged just 4.5 yards per play in their 3 victories (against teams that allow a combined average of 4.8 yppl) and they don’t appear too capable of exploding on any defense. The Saints defense was ripped apart by a sharp Peyton Manning on Sunday night, but they’ve allowing a respectable 5.3 yppl on the season (against teams that average 5.1 yppl on offense) and they should bounce back with a good effort in this game (they qualify in a 67-39-3 ATS road blowout bounce-back situation). What’s surprising about the Panthers is that their defense has surrendered a mediocre 5.1 yppl against a group of teams that combine to average only 4.8 yppl on offense. They even allowed 5.1 yppl in last week’s 23-3 win over a bad Atlanta offense (4.5 yppl on offense), so they may not be able to keep a solid Saints’ attack (5.1 yppl against teams that allow 5.1 yppl) from scoring enough points to stay within the inflated number. Carolina has somehow allowed single digits in both of their two previous games, but teams that do that have a tendency to letdown a bit (69-110-2 ATS if favored or getting 5 points or less). The Panthers do have an outstanding special teams unit, which I rank at the top of the league, but even with that advantage my math model only favors Carolina by 4 points in this game. The Panthers do qualify in a couple of positive angles, but they also qualify in a couple of negative angles too, so siding with the Saints based on the line value looks like the best option, and the Saints are 7-0 ATS under coach Jim Haslett when they are an underdog of 3 points or more following a loss.
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