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Minnesota (-4.0) @ Atlanta
The Vikings’ offense, averaging 6.1 yards per play (against teams that allow 5.2 yppl on defense, ranks as the best in the NFL and they didn’t skip a beat with backup quarterback Gus Frerotte in the lineup last week. Frerotte and WR Randy Moss were unstoppable against a very good 49ers’ defense and I don’t see them being held too much in check in this game either by a poor Falcons’ defense that has given up 5.8 yppl to a schedule of teams that combine to average just 5.2 yppl on offense. However, Atlanta qualifies in a very good 54-18-3 ATS game 5 angle that plays on teams with their backs to the wall against teams that are not in desperate need of a win. The Falcons’ offense also gets an opportunity to face a sub-par defense after taking on a number of pretty good defensive teams this season. Atlanta has averaged just 4.5 yppl this year, but they’ve faced teams that combine to allow only 4.7 yppl on defense. Minnesota, meanwhile, has yielded only 4.9 yppl, but they’ve faced offensive units that combine to average only 4.6 yppl for the season, so their defense isn’t actually good at all. Atlanta’s D.J. Duckett has put up great numbers (5.6 ypr) despite facing good defensive teams and he and Warrick Dunn ought to have a good game running the ball against the Vikings and Doug Johnson’s 5.2 yards per pass play average doesn’t look so bad when you consider that he’s faced teams that combine to allow only 5.3 yppp on defense. Overall, my math model favors Minnesota by 5 ½ points, but the situation favors the Falcons to keep it a little closer than that.
The Vikings’ offense, averaging 6.1 yards per play (against teams that allow 5.2 yppl on defense, ranks as the best in the NFL and they didn’t skip a beat with backup quarterback Gus Frerotte in the lineup last week. Frerotte and WR Randy Moss were unstoppable against a very good 49ers’ defense and I don’t see them being held too much in check in this game either by a poor Falcons’ defense that has given up 5.8 yppl to a schedule of teams that combine to average just 5.2 yppl on offense. However, Atlanta qualifies in a very good 54-18-3 ATS game 5 angle that plays on teams with their backs to the wall against teams that are not in desperate need of a win. The Falcons’ offense also gets an opportunity to face a sub-par defense after taking on a number of pretty good defensive teams this season. Atlanta has averaged just 4.5 yppl this year, but they’ve faced teams that combine to allow only 4.7 yppl on defense. Minnesota, meanwhile, has yielded only 4.9 yppl, but they’ve faced offensive units that combine to average only 4.6 yppl for the season, so their defense isn’t actually good at all. Atlanta’s D.J. Duckett has put up great numbers (5.6 ypr) despite facing good defensive teams and he and Warrick Dunn ought to have a good game running the ball against the Vikings and Doug Johnson’s 5.2 yards per pass play average doesn’t look so bad when you consider that he’s faced teams that combine to allow only 5.3 yppp on defense. Overall, my math model favors Minnesota by 5 ½ points, but the situation favors the Falcons to keep it a little closer than that.
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