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Jacksonville (-3.0) versus San Diego
The Jaguars are not nearly as bad as their 0-4 record indicates, as they have been slightly better than average on both sides of the ball. The Jaguars have averaged 5.2 yards per play on offense (against teams that combine to allow 5.1 yppl on defense) and they will get a boost this week with the return of star receiver Jimmy Smith, who was suspended for the first four games. The Chargers defense is among the worst in the league, allowing 5.8 yppl to teams that average 5.2 yppl on offense, and I expect the Jaguars to move the ball consistently well in this game regardless of who is at quarterback. The Chargers’ offense has been pretty good this season too, averaging 5.2 yppl against teams that allow just 4.9 yppl on defense, and they should be better with David Boston back in the lineup (Boston missed a couple of games with an injury and was suspended by the team last week). The match-up of the Chargers’ offense against the Jaguars’ defense favors Jacksonville, as San Diego likes to establish the run and the Jags are particularly good defending the run (2.8 ypr allowed to teams that average a combined 3.4 ypr on offense). The Jaguars can get beat through the air (6.8 yards per pass play allowed to teams that average 6.1 yppp), but the Chargers’ passing numbers are below average (5.3 yppp against teams that allow 5.5 yppp), so they may not fully exploit that weakness. Overall, Jacksonville has given up a respectable 4.8 yppl to teams that average 4.9 yppl on offense, so they should do a decent job defending a mediocre Chargers’ attack. Laying points with a winless team is generally not a good idea, as home favorites are just 71-104-4 ATS with a win percentage of .200 or less (from game 3 on), but the Jags also qualify in a very strong 49-12-5 ATS statistical match-up indicator as long as they are not favored by more than 4 points. Jacksonville is 23-10-1 ATS at home when not laying more than 7 points, so I’ll lean with them to win this battle of underrated, winless teams.
The Jaguars are not nearly as bad as their 0-4 record indicates, as they have been slightly better than average on both sides of the ball. The Jaguars have averaged 5.2 yards per play on offense (against teams that combine to allow 5.1 yppl on defense) and they will get a boost this week with the return of star receiver Jimmy Smith, who was suspended for the first four games. The Chargers defense is among the worst in the league, allowing 5.8 yppl to teams that average 5.2 yppl on offense, and I expect the Jaguars to move the ball consistently well in this game regardless of who is at quarterback. The Chargers’ offense has been pretty good this season too, averaging 5.2 yppl against teams that allow just 4.9 yppl on defense, and they should be better with David Boston back in the lineup (Boston missed a couple of games with an injury and was suspended by the team last week). The match-up of the Chargers’ offense against the Jaguars’ defense favors Jacksonville, as San Diego likes to establish the run and the Jags are particularly good defending the run (2.8 ypr allowed to teams that average a combined 3.4 ypr on offense). The Jaguars can get beat through the air (6.8 yards per pass play allowed to teams that average 6.1 yppp), but the Chargers’ passing numbers are below average (5.3 yppp against teams that allow 5.5 yppp), so they may not fully exploit that weakness. Overall, Jacksonville has given up a respectable 4.8 yppl to teams that average 4.9 yppl on offense, so they should do a decent job defending a mediocre Chargers’ attack. Laying points with a winless team is generally not a good idea, as home favorites are just 71-104-4 ATS with a win percentage of .200 or less (from game 3 on), but the Jags also qualify in a very strong 49-12-5 ATS statistical match-up indicator as long as they are not favored by more than 4 points. Jacksonville is 23-10-1 ATS at home when not laying more than 7 points, so I’ll lean with them to win this battle of underrated, winless teams.