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San Francisco (-7.0) versus Detroit
Detroit qualifies in a 102-55-3 ATS statistical indicator, but I’m not too comfortable going with the Lions in this game. Detroit has been bad on both sides of the ball and their offense, averaging only 4.5 yards per play (against teams that combine to allow 4.9 yppl on defense), isn’t likely to sustain many drives against a 49ers’ defense that has only allowed 4.3 yppl (against teams that average a combined 4.7 yppl on offense) despite last week’s horrible showing in Minnesota. The 49ers’ offense has been just average this year, tallying 5.2 yppl against teams that allow 5.2 yppl, but they should have more success today against a sub-par Lions’ stop unit that has surrendered 6.1 yppl to teams that average 5.5 yppl on offense. Detroit is particularly bad defending the run (5.0 ypr allowed to teams that average 4.3 ypr), and I expect San Francisco to exploit that weakness by running their two good backs Hearst (5.0 ypr) and Barlow (4.4 ypr) more in this game. The 49ers’ have been hurt by injuries to the offensive line that have given Garcia less time to throw, so the status of OT Deese and G Heitman may be worth looking into (Deese is expected to play for the first time since the opener and Heitman is questionable). I’ll lean with San Francisco to bounce-back against a bad Lions team despite the indicator that favors Detroit.
Detroit qualifies in a 102-55-3 ATS statistical indicator, but I’m not too comfortable going with the Lions in this game. Detroit has been bad on both sides of the ball and their offense, averaging only 4.5 yards per play (against teams that combine to allow 4.9 yppl on defense), isn’t likely to sustain many drives against a 49ers’ defense that has only allowed 4.3 yppl (against teams that average a combined 4.7 yppl on offense) despite last week’s horrible showing in Minnesota. The 49ers’ offense has been just average this year, tallying 5.2 yppl against teams that allow 5.2 yppl, but they should have more success today against a sub-par Lions’ stop unit that has surrendered 6.1 yppl to teams that average 5.5 yppl on offense. Detroit is particularly bad defending the run (5.0 ypr allowed to teams that average 4.3 ypr), and I expect San Francisco to exploit that weakness by running their two good backs Hearst (5.0 ypr) and Barlow (4.4 ypr) more in this game. The 49ers’ have been hurt by injuries to the offensive line that have given Garcia less time to throw, so the status of OT Deese and G Heitman may be worth looking into (Deese is expected to play for the first time since the opener and Heitman is questionable). I’ll lean with San Francisco to bounce-back against a bad Lions team despite the indicator that favors Detroit.