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Philly (-5.5) versus Washington
Philadelphia took advantage of being in a good situation last week and they beat the Bills in Buffalo. However, the technicals are mixed in this game, as the Eagles qualify in a negative 21-57-2 ATS game 4 situation (1-4 this year) while also applying to a 241-140-11 ATS contrary indicator (that indicator is only 3-6 ATS when the game 4 angle also applies) and a 112-53-3 ATS statistical match-up indicator (has not overlapped with game 4 angle). From a fundamental standpoint, the line looks about right to me. Philadelphia’s underrated offense has averaged just 4.4 yards per play, but they’ve faced 3 good defensive teams in Tampa Bay, New England, and Buffalo, who combine to allow only 4.3 yppl on defense for the season. That attack should finally bust out a bit against a mediocre Washington defense that has given up 4.9 yppl to teams that average 4.9 yppl on offense. The task for the Eagles will be slowing down a well-balanced and good Washington attack that has averaged 5.7 yppl this season (against teams that allow 5.3 yppl) and is good both running (4.5 ypr) and throwing the ball (6.6 yppp). Philadelphia played last week with a makeshift defensive backfield and those young DB’s did a nice job, allowing 6.4 yards per pass play to a Buffalo team that averages 6.9 yppp on offense for the season. Star defensive backs Dawkins and Vincent are out for this game and Taylor is questionable, but coach Reid has faith in his young replacements and they should do a decent job of containing an emerging Patrick Ramsey. The Eagles defend the run well also (2.4 ypr allowed to teams that average 3.0 ypr on offense) and they’ll be eager to win at their new home. My mathematical model favors Philly by 4 ½ points and the technical analysis is unclear as to which side it favors. So, this looks like a good game to stay away from.
Philadelphia took advantage of being in a good situation last week and they beat the Bills in Buffalo. However, the technicals are mixed in this game, as the Eagles qualify in a negative 21-57-2 ATS game 4 situation (1-4 this year) while also applying to a 241-140-11 ATS contrary indicator (that indicator is only 3-6 ATS when the game 4 angle also applies) and a 112-53-3 ATS statistical match-up indicator (has not overlapped with game 4 angle). From a fundamental standpoint, the line looks about right to me. Philadelphia’s underrated offense has averaged just 4.4 yards per play, but they’ve faced 3 good defensive teams in Tampa Bay, New England, and Buffalo, who combine to allow only 4.3 yppl on defense for the season. That attack should finally bust out a bit against a mediocre Washington defense that has given up 4.9 yppl to teams that average 4.9 yppl on offense. The task for the Eagles will be slowing down a well-balanced and good Washington attack that has averaged 5.7 yppl this season (against teams that allow 5.3 yppl) and is good both running (4.5 ypr) and throwing the ball (6.6 yppp). Philadelphia played last week with a makeshift defensive backfield and those young DB’s did a nice job, allowing 6.4 yards per pass play to a Buffalo team that averages 6.9 yppp on offense for the season. Star defensive backs Dawkins and Vincent are out for this game and Taylor is questionable, but coach Reid has faith in his young replacements and they should do a decent job of containing an emerging Patrick Ramsey. The Eagles defend the run well also (2.4 ypr allowed to teams that average 3.0 ypr on offense) and they’ll be eager to win at their new home. My mathematical model favors Philly by 4 ½ points and the technical analysis is unclear as to which side it favors. So, this looks like a good game to stay away from.
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