Tweet
NC State (-16.0) versus Connecticut
The Wolfpack are not a very reliable favorite thanks to a pass defense that has given up 7.8 yards per pass play to teams that average 6.6 yppp on offense. The Huskies’ Dan Orlovsky (7.1 yppp against teams that allow 6.8 yppp) is certainly capable of taking advantage of that NC State secondary and I suspect the focus for U Conn will be to put the ball in the air now that superstar back Terry Cauley (607 yards at 6.8 ypr) is out for the season. NC State will answer offensively with a pass attack that has averaged a very impressive 8.1 yppp this season (against teams that allow 6.4 yppp on defense). Connecticut is better than average defending the pass (4.1 yppp allowed to teams that average 4.6 yppp on offense), but Philip Rivers will still put up big numbers. However, the Wolfpack rush attack has been hindered by a hamstring injury that has kept star running back T.A. McLendon off the field for much of this season (he’s questionable for this game). After making an adjustment for Cauley’s absence, my math model favors NC State by 13 ˝ points and it could be closer than that given that the Huskies are 12-3 ATS on the road while NC State is just 5-8 ATS laying double-digits under coach Amato.
The Wolfpack are not a very reliable favorite thanks to a pass defense that has given up 7.8 yards per pass play to teams that average 6.6 yppp on offense. The Huskies’ Dan Orlovsky (7.1 yppp against teams that allow 6.8 yppp) is certainly capable of taking advantage of that NC State secondary and I suspect the focus for U Conn will be to put the ball in the air now that superstar back Terry Cauley (607 yards at 6.8 ypr) is out for the season. NC State will answer offensively with a pass attack that has averaged a very impressive 8.1 yppp this season (against teams that allow 6.4 yppp on defense). Connecticut is better than average defending the pass (4.1 yppp allowed to teams that average 4.6 yppp on offense), but Philip Rivers will still put up big numbers. However, the Wolfpack rush attack has been hindered by a hamstring injury that has kept star running back T.A. McLendon off the field for much of this season (he’s questionable for this game). After making an adjustment for Cauley’s absence, my math model favors NC State by 13 ˝ points and it could be closer than that given that the Huskies are 12-3 ATS on the road while NC State is just 5-8 ATS laying double-digits under coach Amato.